1. LOCAL DIFFERENCES IN SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITIONS: THE CASE OF CAR-SHARING IN THE NETHERLANDS Toon Meelen

2. THE PUZZLE Why do sustainability transitions happen in some places but not in others? EV in The Netherlands (RWO, own calculations,2013) PV in The Netherlands (Peer, own calculations, 2013) PV in Germany (Dewald & Truffer, 2012)

3. THE CASE: CAR SHARING IN THE NETHERLANDS Peer-to-peer Traditional

5. GEOGRAPHY OF SUSTAINIBILITY TRANSITIONS Space & Scale (Coenen et al. 2012) local factors influencing transitions (e.g. local institutions, urban policies) (Hansen & Coenen, 2014)

6. Truffer Dewald (2012) “Market formation” Sine Lee (2011) environmental movements Longhurst (2015) “alternative milieu” provides epistemological + ontological security Focus on market/users

7. METHODOLOGY Data on number of shared cars in the Netherlands via the peer-to-peer and traditional model per neighbourhood (n=10,421 cars, n=4047 neighbourhoods) Data on geographical and socio-demographic characteristics of neighbourhoods from Dutch statistical offices + car-sharing policy from all municipalities Zero inflated Negative Binomial Model

8. ADOPTION PER NEIGHBOUR HOOD Zero inflated part: Probability that zero cars are shared in a neighbourhood Traditional car sharingPeer-to-peer car sharing Model 1Model 2Model 1Model 2 Constant 5.441 (8.610) 12.580 (7.920) 5.048 (4.186) 5.753 (4.737) Number of cars (x1000) 0.178 (0.149) 0.312 (0.198) -1.367*** (0.305) -1.535*** (0.350) Population density (x1000) 0.062 (0.100) 0.093 (0.089) -0.150 (0.103) 0.189 (0.144) Distance to facilities -0.108 (0.113) -0.045 (0.113) 0.035 (0.048) 0.047 (0.051) Income (x1000) 0.083 (0.098) 0.002 (0.085) 0.063 (0.045) 0.080 (0.050) % Vocational education -0.148 (0.094) -0.110 (0.077) -0.043 (0.032) -0.042 (0.035) % college, university education -0.200* (0.093) -0.132 (0.070) -0.067 * (0.031) -0.042 (0.035) % one person households -0.199** (0.067) -0.163** (0.058) -0.028 (0.031) -0.031 (0.031) % age 25-45 0.161 (0.162) 0.032 (0.119) 0.035 (0.068) 0.024 (0.075) % age 45-65 0.130 (0.134) 0.049 (0.113) 0.054 (0.054) 0.057 (0.060) % age 65+ 0.272* (0.125) 0.132 (0.088) 0.058 (0.046) 0.070 (0.048) % Member environmental organization -1.219** (0.394) -1.015* (0.420) -0.091 (0.163) 0.021 (0.181) % Western immigrants 0.073 (0.072) 0.212 (0.068) 0.032 (0.035) 0.035 (0.039) Municipal policy (Information) 0.425 (0.633) -0.650 (0.752) Municipal policy (Parking) -0.537 (0.785 ) 0.468 (1.503) Spatial lags indep var yes Mcfadden adj R2 0.3460.3620.1940.196 N 2424229024242290 Non-zero observations 43940016001503 ***: sign. < 0.001 **: sign. < 0.01 *: sign. < 0.05

9. ADOPTION PER NEIGHBOUR HOOD Number of cars shared in neighbourhoods in which it is likely that cars are shared Traditional car sharing Peer-to-peer car sharing Model 1Model 2Model 1Model 2 Constant -3.586* (1.495) -3.650* (1.522) 1.028 (0.624) 0.938 (0.663) Number of cars (x1000) 0.298*** (0.043) 0.220*** (0.043) 0.238*** (0.013) 0.238*** (0. 014) Population density (x1000) 0.024 (0.016) 0.042 (0.016) 0.033*** (0.008) 0.042*** (0.009) Distance to facilities -0.098** (0.031) -0.071* (0.032) -0.024 * (0.010) -0.024* (0.010) Income (x1000) 0.014 (0.020) 0.007 (0.020) 0.001 (0.007) 0.004 (0.007) % Vocational education -0.069*** (0.014) -0.048 ** (0.014) -0.033*** (0.006) -0.025 *** (0.006) % college, university education -0.028 (0.016) -0.028 (0.015) 0.004 (0.005 ) 0.003 (0.006) % one person households 0.038** (0.011) 0.026 ** (0.011) 0.014** (0.004 ) 0.013** (0.004) % age 25-45 0.035* (0.017) 0.023 (0.017 ) 0.008 (0.008) 0.002 (0.009) % age 45-65 -0.001 (0.018) 0.006 (0.019) -0.033*** (0.008) -0.036*** (0.009) % age 65+ -0.025 (0.012) -0.019 (0.013 ) -0.022** (0.006 ) -0.021** (0.006) % Member environmental organization 0.414*** (0.070 ) 0.373 *** (0.079) 0.321*** (0.029) 0.316*** (0.034 ) % Western immigrants 0.062 * (0.018) 0.110*** (0.020) -0.018* (0.007) -0.018* (0.007) Municipal policy (Information) 0.618*** (0.169) 0.181 ** (0.061) Municipal policy (Parking) 0.510* (0.234) 0.137 (0.071) Spatial lags indep var yes Mcfadden adj R2 0.3460.3620.1940.196 N 2424229024242290 Non-zero observations 43940016001503 ***: sign. < 0.001 **: sign. < 0.01 *: sign. < 0.05

10. Conclusions: Peer-to-peer car-sharing occurs everywhere, traditional car-sharing occurs in places with people that are environmentally aware Policy mixed results Environmental awareness strong predictor of number of shared cars Peer-to-peer car-sharing for younger, traditional car-sharing for older people

11. Questions?