1. Temporal Continuity in Return Migration in Australia 1976-2001 A paper presented at the 4 th International Conference on Population Geographies, 10-13 July 2007, Hong Kong Angélique Parr, Martin Bell & Dominic Brown

2. Outline Defining return migration Previous research Research questions Intensity of return migration in Australia Next steps

3. Conceptual Issues Three complications: –Time scale over which moves are measured –Spatial resolution –Return to where – area or dwelling? “Return to an original place of residence following an earlier permanent or semi- permanent migration”

4. Previous Work Most migration research cross-sectional (single time period) Early work on returns from 1950s (Goldstein 1954,1964; Eldridge 1965) North American research on lifetime return (Da Vanzo 1983, Lee 1974, Long 1988) Work in Australia & Canada on return over fixed intervals (Bell 1995, 1996; Bell & Hugo 2000; Newbold 1997; Newbold and Bell 2001) Research strongly driven by nature of the available data Major themes in return migration: –How much movement (intensity) –Spatial patterns – Who moves (selectivity) –Reasons for return (planned vs failed)

5. Approaches to Measuring Return Movement Life time measures – (Census based; US, Canada eg Lee 1974,Long 1988) –Place (province) of birth, –Place of residence at t - 5 –Place of residence at t Fixed interval measures - (Census based; Canada, Australia eg Newbold & Bell (2000)) –Place of residence at t - 5 –Place of residence at t - 1 –Place of residence at t

6. What do we know? 20 – 30% of interstate moves in US are returns to state of birth. Similar figures pertain for inter-provincial migration in Canada In Australia 11% of 1-year (eg 2000-2001) interstate migrants had moved interstate in the preceding 4 years (eg 1996-2000) Areas with long term net out-migration have significant return flows Return appears to be correlated with distance Return migration selective among an already selective group wrt: –Age - young adults and retirees –Less educated, unemployed and low income groups –Young males more likely to return to family home

7. Research Questions Has the intensity of return migration changed over time? How is return migration intensity affected by spatial scale? –Geographic level –Return to same dwelling cf return to same area –Distance moved Does the age profile vary with type of return? Has the age profile of return migration changed over time?

8. Datasets Data from 4 censuses: –1981, 1991, 1996, 2001 –Data from 4 censuses: Compare 4 variables: –Place of usual residence at Census –Place of usual residence one year previously –Place of residence 5 years previously –Five year internal migration indicator –Include age at census to create age profiles

9. Australia’s City Regions

10. Interstate returns, Australia, 1981-2001 Source: 1981, 1991, 1996 & 2001 Censuses

11. Inter-regional returns, Australia, 1981-2001 Source: 1981 & 2001 censuses

12. Interstate return migration probabilities by type of return by age, 1996-2000-2001

13. Age profile of interstate returns, 1986- 1990-1991 & 1996-2000-2001

14. Age profile of interstate returns to same dwelling, 1986-1990-1991 & 1996-2000-2001

15. Age profile of interstate returns to another dwelling, 1986-1990-1991 & 1996-2000-2001

16. Conclusions and Next Steps Key findings: Intensity of return has changed over time Temporal pattern of propensity for return depends on level of geography –Interstate return has declined –Inter-regional return has increased Planned returns are becoming more important High selection at young adult and older ages – older more likely to return to previous dwelling – planned moves

17. Conclusions and Next Steps Next Steps: Intensities for sub-state areas, by functional region Explore affect of distance on propensity to return Determine other key characteristics of return migrants – planned versus failed hypotheses Explore some of the underlying reasons for different types of return movement