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Climate Change and India Sumana Bhattacharya NATCOM PMC Winrock International India International Workshop on Future International Climate Policy August.

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Presentation on theme: "Climate Change and India Sumana Bhattacharya NATCOM PMC Winrock International India International Workshop on Future International Climate Policy August."— Presentation transcript:

1 Climate Change and India Sumana Bhattacharya NATCOM PMC Winrock International India International Workshop on Future International Climate Policy August 9, 2006, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil

2 Climate Change and India The setting Climate change Actions Institutional Arrangement Major Climate Change Activities Adaptation and Development

3 Occupies 2.4% (3.28 million sq. km of the worlds land area but support 16.2% (more than 1 billion) of the worlds human population Diverse physiographic features - Himalayas, Coastal areas, northern plains, peninsular plateau and islands Dominating feature of climate is the Monsoon Endowed with varied climate, biodiversity and ecological regions (Forest Cover about thousand sq km 2/3 rd population dependent on climate sensitive sectors Poverty ratio at national poverty line ~ 28.6 % of total population Agricultural land ~ 60.8% of total land area CO 2 emissions ~ 1. 2 t per capita Energy use~ kg of oil equivalent per capita GDP (current US$) ~ billion GDP growth : 7% annually (average) Diverse natural conditions, high population, limited and degraded natural resources The Setting

4 NATCOM-1 submitted to UNFCCC India ratifies UNFCCC India ratifies Vienna Convention India acceded to Montreal Protocol Establishment of Ministry of Non Conventional Energy Sources Establishment of Ozone Cell in MoEF Ratifies Kyoto Protocol Energy Conservation Act Electricity Act Climate Change Action Air pollution ActAct 1981, amended 1987 Environmental protection Act1986, amended 1991 Forest Conservation Act1980, amended 1988

5 Institutional structure for climate change action in India Ministry of Environment & Forests Joint Secretary, Climate Change Focal Point Advisor, MoEF Joint Secretary, GEF Focal Point Indias National Communication to the UNFCCC Network of institutes CDM Climate change activities and policy measures Other communications and submissions to the UNFCCC Project proponent for funding through GEF Implementing Agency for the GEF DNA

6 Clean Development Mechanism DNA2004 Secretary, MoEF Ministries of: Foreign Affairs Finance Industrial Policy & Promotion Non-Conventional Energy Sources Power Planning Commission and Environment & Forests

7 Registered Projects in UNFCCC - 256

8 Country wise CERs (total :72.72 million tCO 2 /yr)

9 Total projects approved by DNA

10 Institutional Arrangement - NATCOM Ministry of Environment and Forests National Steering Committee Technical Assessment Committee Chair : Secretary, MoEF Inventory Uncertainty Reduction V&A

11 GHG Emissions from Sources and Removals by Sinks - India 1994

12 Relative GHG Emissions Gas by Gas emission distribution

13 Sectoral Distribution of GHG emissions Emissions in terms of CO 2 equivalent

14 Climate projection scenarios (RCM, HadCM2) National Impact Assessment Studies on: -Water Resources -Agriculture -Forests & other Natural Ecosystems - Coastal Zones -Human health -Energy and Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment & Adaptation

15 Climate Projections Av. Surface temperature: increase by 2 - 4°C during 2050s Monsoon Rainfall: Marginal changes in monsoon months (JJAS) : Large changes during non-monsoon months No. of rainy days: set to decrease by more than 15 days Intensity of rains : to increase by 1-4 mm/day Cyclonic storms: Increase in frequency and intensity of cyclonic storms is projected

16 Acute physical water scarce conditions Constant water scarcities and shortage Seasonal / regular water stressed conditions Rare water shortages Key Vulnerable River Basins

17 Decrease in yield of crops as temperature increases in different parts of India - For example a a 2°C increase in mean air temperature, rice yields could decrease by about 0.75 ton/hectare in the high yield areas and by about 0.06 ton/hectare in the low yield coastal regions. Major impacts of climate change will be on rain fed crops (other than rice and wheat), which account for nearly 60% of cropland area. In India poorest farmers practice rain fed agriculture. The loss in farm-level net revenue will range between 9 and 25% for a temperature rise of 2-3.5°C. Agriculture

18 Coastal Zones Vulnerable areas along the Indian Coast due to SLR Simulation models show an increase in frequencies of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal particularly intense events are projected during the post-monsoon period Sea level rise is projected to displace populations in coastal zones, increase flooding in low-lying coastal areas, loss of crop yields from inundation and salinization km coast line

19 Forestry 77% and 68% of the forested grids in India are likely to experience shift in forest types Indications show a shift towards wetter forest types in the northeastern region and drier forest types in the northwestern region in the absence of human influence. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate warming could also result in a 50 to 70% increase under the B2 scenario Dry savannah Xeric Shrub land Xeric woodland Tropical Seasonal Forest Boreal Evergreen Tundra Simulated Projected

20 Health Malaria is likely to persist in many states and new regions at hogher latitudes may become malaria-prone The duration of the malaria transmission windows is likely to widen in northern and western states and shorten in southern states. Endemic regions of malaria Regions likely to be affected by malaria in 2050s

21 Features / Limitations of Impact Assessments Made so Far Impact based Impact assessment made using climate change projections based on a single model outputs (RCM Had RM2) and single scenario Uncertainty of projections of climate parameters at regional level Limitations of models in assessing sectoral impacts at regional level (forests, crop production, water) Limited data availability

22 Studies on coping measures DroughtsFloods RajasthanAssam KarnatakaUP APBihar GujaratOrissa Chattisgarh Single stress – climate change Climate variability and change Multiple stresses Scenario- based modelling Vulnerability indicators Community interaction CIDA agr SIDA Agri APN agr/climate info OFDA floods/droughts WB agr/water APN agr/rice- wheat Natcom agr/wat/for/health Indo-UK agr/wat/ for/health/coastal Natcom coastal/disasters Ford SLR APN glaciers WB agr

23 Adaptation Analysis- so far Preliminary assessments made for different sectors; including assessment of current policies and programmes in relation to vulnerability Most policies, measures & technologies also address current stresses to some extent and also relevant for adaptation to climate change (water, forest, agriculture, etc.) Still, incremental mechanisms needed to address climate change impacts Further analysis needed to identify adaptation technologies, measures, institutions, financial needs for adaptation at local levels

24 Immediate task in Preparation for Adaptation to Climate Change Improve existing climate scenario projections and the sectoral impact assessments Develop socio economic scenarios in conjunction with Indias developmental path Carry out studies at identified climatically hotspot areas Institute an integrated approach to understand the inter-sectoral linkages affecting the physical and socio economic vulnerabilities at local levels Carry out analysis to formulate adaptation frameworks at these scales which can provide inputs for the development of a national adaptation plan for combating the adverse effects of climate change.

25 Strengthen policies for food security, forests, manage disasters and infrastructure development Appropriate allocation of funds for National Development Programme Implementation Step up observation systems & technology development and dissemination Strengthen Institutional mechanisms as instruments of adaptation at local level Arrangement of funds for adaptation Mainstream climate change concerns and hence adaptation in the planning process Consider Development as one of the pathways for adaptation Steps Facilitating Adaptation at National and Local Level

26 Indias Development Goals 1.Reducing the poverty ratio by 5 percentage points by 2007 and by 15 percentage points by Providing gainful and high-quality employment to the labor force 3.All children in school by 2003; all children to complete 5 years of schooling by Reducing gender gaps in literacy and wage rates by at least 50 % by Raising the literacy rate to 75% within the 10 th Plan 6.Reducing the decadal rate of population growth between to 16.2% The goals in blue are more ambitious than corresponding MDGs

27 Indias Developmental Goals… 7.Reducing the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) to 45 per 1000 live births by 2007 and to 28 by Reducing the Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) to 2 per 1000 live births by 2007 and to 1 by Increasing the forest and tree cover to 25 % by 2007 and 33 % by All villages to have sustained access to potable drinking water by Electricity for all by Cleaning of all major polluted rivers by 2007 and other notified stretches by 2012

28 The Indian Government has targeted an 8% GDP growth rate per annum for 2002–07 to achieve its development priorities In order to achieve these developmental aspirations, substantial additional energy consumption will be necessary and coal, being the abundant domestic energy resource, would continue to play a dominant role. India Needs More Energy for its Development

29 Climate Friendly Initiative Wide-ranging reforms such as: Policies adopted by India for sustainable development, such as –Energy and Power sector reforms energy efficiency increasing penetration of cleaner fuels thrust for renewable energy technologies Introduction of landmark environmental measures that have targeted - cleansing of rivers, - enhanced forestation, - installed significant capacity of hydro and renewable energy technologies and - introduced clean coal technologies - cleaner and lesser carbon intensive fuel have all accelerated the economic growth and lowered the barriers to efficiency and reduced energy intensity

30 Decreasing Energy Intensity Behind Indias Sustainable Development


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