1. YES, IT IS !!!NO, IT ISN’T !!!

3. UNCLASSIFIED INTERNATIONAL SECURITY STUDY ON TAIWAN Capt

4. UNCLASSIFIED FIRST – What do these countries have in common?  Taiwan  Chinese Taipei  Republic of China (ROC)

5. UNCLASSIFIED  Causes of War and tension between ROC and Peoples Republic of China (PRC) (Mainland China)  Timeline  Contextual elements  US Involvement  National Security Strategy (NSS) & Taiwan Relations Act  Instruments of Power (IOP)  Forecast and Recommendations  IOP  International Community OVERVIEW

6. UNCLASSIFIED  Timeline [1927 – 1949], Cause of War (CoW) or Contextual Element (CE) (source: PBS-Online/WGBH/Nixon’s-China Game “Timeline of US-China Relations”)  1927  Political CoW…Chinese Civil War between Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalist Party (or Kuomintang (KMT)) & Mao Tse-tung’s Communist Party of China (CPC)  1928  KMT controls China’s capitol & major cities – recognized as China’s official government by international community  1930  Political CE…US (aligned with KMT) & USSR (aligned with CPS) come to China’s aid  1937 – 1949  World War II & 2d Sino-Japanese War Causes of War & Contextual Elements

7. UNCLASSIFIED  Timeline [1949] Cause of War (CoW) or Contextual Element (CE) (source: PBS-Online/WGBH/Nixon’s-China Game “Timeline of US-China Relations”) CoW & CE Con’t  1949  Political CoW & CE…CPC aided by USSR & weapons from Japanese take Beijing  KMT forced to island of Taiwan  Mao Tse-tung’s CPC renames China PRC  PRC (CPC) vs. ROC (KMT)

8. UNCLASSIFIED  Timeline [1971] Cause of War (CoW) or Contextual Element (CE) (source: PBS-Online/WGBH/Nixon’s-China Game “Timeline of US-China Relations”)  1971  Political & Int. CE…ROC loses seat on UN to PRC  Communism vs. Capitalism  Israel vs. Muslim States  USSR/China relations (+/-) CoW & CE Con’t

9. UNCLASSIFIED  Timeline [2000] Cause of War (CoW) or Contextual Element (CE) (source: PBS-Online/WGBH/Nixon’s-China Game “Timeline of US-China Relations”) CoW & CE Con’t  2000  Political & Security CoW…ROC’s Chen Shui-bian’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Presidential election  Publishes “White Paper on China Policy for 21 st Century” … outlines four pillars for Taiwan security (“White Paper on China Policy for 21 st Century”, www.taiwandocuments.org, 30 Nov 1999)  PRC enacts “Anti-Accession Law” in response …2008 deadline

10. UNCLASSIFIED  IAW 2002 National Security Strategy and Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 US Objectives are:  Promote Democracy and free trade  Provide security to Taiwan US Involvement  US using military IOP –  Trumen  Eisenhower  Reagan  Bush  Clinton

11. UNCLASSIFIED US Involvement Con’t  US using diplomatic IOP –  Arms Sales  Status (i.e. “Almost Sovereign”, Formal)

12. UNCLASSIFIED US Involvement Con’t  US using economic IOP –  Direct until 1971  Indirect (i.e. WTO member, Favored Nation status)

13. UNCLASSIFIED Forecast & Recommendations  Republic of China will win its sovereignty  US Stay the Course (Diplomatic, Military and Economic IOP)  Diplomatic IOP  Continue diplomatic pressure on China  Continue Arms Sales (“Bush Defends Taiwan Arms Sales”, BBC News online, 25 Apr 2001)

14. UNCLASSIFIED Forecast & Recommendations Con’t  Economic trade continues global interdependence  Military intervention  International Community Continue Pressure  Through International Events like Olympics  United Nations (www. Taiwandocuments.org)

15. UNCLASSIFIED  ROC’s many Names (Taiwan, Chinese Teipei, Republic of China)  CoW & CE (Civil War, Cold War CE, long history)  US Involvement (IOPs, Military, Political, Economic)  Forecast Recommendations (True Sovereign, Stay the course, time)  Questions?? SUMMARY