2. Risk Management A Key Project Management Knowledge Area

3. Project Management Practice Why do most application development projects fail? How can you improve productivity by 20 to 30%? Why are 66% of IT projects late or over budget? Gartner Report – April 18, 2000 Fixing a requirement problem early on will cost $1. That same problem will cost $10. later in design In deployment the cost increases to $100. University of Southern California – PM Network May 2003

4. Software industry projects fail because…. Software development projects are in jeopardy because they are not managed by experienced project managers using proven methodologies and techniques.

5. Managing Software Development What is Risk Management? Tools and Techniques to Manage Risk. How Does Risk Management Fit Into My Project Plan? Risks … software to autopilot ground vehicles …

6. Project Risk Management Process Risk identification Risk quantification Risk qualification Risk response planning Risk monitoring & control

7. Project Risk Management Process Risk Identification

8. Risk Identification Sources Documentation/Contracts History –Accurate stakeholder(s) identification –Mismanaged requirements gathering –Lack of documentation –Unchallenged assumptions Integration Seamless Compatible Import/Export Functionality Work Breakdown Structure Scheduled Triggers Risk Breakdown Structure Design Testing/Technology Operation/Maintenance/Support Copy write/Patent/License

9. Project Risk Management Tools Risk identification Tools –ETR’s WBS Prompts –ETR’s Gantt Prompts –ETR’s Risk Management Checklist

10. What do I need for this activity/deliverable? Dependency Risks Is what I need available (When I need it)? Human resources? Documentation? Hardware? Approvals? Funding? Does this activity/deliverable assume anything? Assumption Risks Is the assumption(s) valid? Does this activity/deliverable have constraints? Constraint Risks Can it be done with the constraints? Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) Prompts

11. F S S S F F S F Scheduling Prompts FS Does anything have to happen before I can start this? Is there any risk in that dependency? SS If these start at the same time, do I have the resources?Are the resources at risk? FF Why do they have to end at the same Time? Does that dependency have any risks? SF What needs to be finished before the other can start?Is there any risk that it won’t be finished?

12. Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) Software Project Alpha

13. Risk Management Checklist “PM completes Risk Checklist” Should Be Part of Methodology

14. Risk Management of Triggers (Time based trigger example below.)

15. Risk Identification The process of systematically identifying all possible risk events which may impact a project –Generate a Risk List that will later be quantified and qualified. –Cumulative effect of several risk events occurring in concert with each other may be of greater significance than the impact of a single issue Classify by cause, not effect or impact!

16. Scheduling Risks Level of Effort (LOE) subjectively estimated LOE estimated by incorrect stakeholder Work Package in Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) too large for accurate estimates LOE based on a resource with overestimated skills &/or experience

17. Project Risk Management Process Risk Quantification

18. Probabilities & Statistical Equations Decision Tree Calculations Subjective Scales Formulas Project Managers use … Can be expressed numerically –mean –median –mode –range –variance –standard deviation

19. Quantification of Dollar Value Product of two variables –Risk Event Probability: An estimate of the probability that a given risk event will occur –Risk Event Value: An estimate of the gain or loss that will be incurred if the risk event does occur {Probability of Impact x Dollar Value = Event Monetary Value: (P)I=EVM} Reference: PMBOK, 1996. Ch. 11

20. Quantify in an integrated way!

21. Quantification of Duration Ranges (O + 4M + P) / 6 is PERT (Program Evaluation & Review Technique) (P – 0) / 6 is Standard Deviation [ (P – O) / 6 ] is Task Variance is Project Variance (sum of the task variances) Handy formulas to help quantify risk activity/task duration: O = Optimistic, M = Most Likely, P = Pessimistic Please remember that subjective P, M, and O inputs yield subjective outputs. Historical inputs are preferred for P, M, and O values 2  [ (P – O) / 6 ] 2

22. Project Risk Management Process Risk Qualification

23. Qualitative Risk Rating High Likely to cause significant impact to schedule/cost/scope/quality ModerateHas potential to cause impact to schedule/cost/scope/quality LowHas little potential impact to Schedule/cost/scope/quality Remember ETR’s Triangle of Truth!

24. Project Risk Management Process Risk Response

25. Risk Response Options Ways to address risk issues. –Avoidance: Eliminate up front (e.g. activity sequence in test plan) –Reduction: (mitigation) Minimize anticipated impact –Transfer: (deflection) Redirect issue ownership (sub/direct property/indirect consequential) –Retention: (acceptance) Accept real or potential impacts

26. Project Risk Management Process Risk Control

27. Risk Management Plan Should document the procedures that will be used to manage risk throughout the project Reference: PMBOK, 1996. Ch.11

28. Risk & Issues Log (for control)

29. Risk Management Process & the Project Plan Document risks in project plan Use communication sub-plan to manage expectations May require WBS or RBS elaboration Budget for risk events May imply adding mitigation tasks in schedule Document status of risk issue Assume risk reviews are part of entire project life cycle

30. Project Risk Management Process Risk identification Risk quantification Risk qualification Risk response Risk control summary

31. Visit us at: www.etrtechcenter.com

32. Q&A For additional information & copies of this presentation: Email Edward B. Farkas, PMP Managing Director, Project Management Practice: ETR Technology Center, Inc. 180 Oser Avenue Hauppauge, NY 11788 ebfarkas@etrtechcenter.com 631.952.1300 A certified WBE firm established in 1980