1. Takeyasu Ito University of Tennessee EDM Collaboration meeting December, 2004 Cost and Schedule Estimate WBS 2.5- Neutron beam polarizer/splitter for SNS WBS 3-Shielding –Experimental shielding –Shielding for Splitter/Polarizer

2. Takeyasu Ito2 Splitter/Polarizer 127.0 mm 101.6 mm 254.0 mm 14000 mm 4500 mm m=3 suppermirror guides m=3 polarizing supermirror coated on thin Si wafer TOP VIEW

3. Takeyasu Ito3 Cost Estimate Basis for estimate –Supermirror guides $30k/m –Si wafer $30/4 inch disk * From semiconductor industry, roughness ~ 5Å (source J.J. Ferme from Seso) Cost estimate –$30k/m x 14m x 2 = $840 k * Factor 2 for coating Si wafer and constructing more complicated system than straight guide –[ed. TVC] +$125k for labor on next page. –[ed. TVC] *1.35 (overhead, sales tax) [ed. TVC] Contingency = 52% (see last page)

4. Takeyasu Ito4 Estimated Schedule and Necessary Resources Conceptual design –1 scientist; 2 months Preparation of equipment spec –1 engineer; 3 months Preparation for procurement (generation of RFQ, signing contract) –5% of a scientist, 5% of an engineer; 3 months Design, fabrication, installation –5% of a scientist, 5% of an engineer; 12 months

5. Takeyasu Ito5 [ed. TVC] Table Entries Level 2 Cost ContingencyDurationFloat 2.5.1 Design Beam Splitter 170908 mo.2 mo. 2.5.2 Procure/Install Beam Splitter 113060012 mo.6 mo.

6. Takeyasu Ito6 [ed. TVC] Part of SNS Guide? The FNPB approved baseline includes a 12 x 14 cm 2 guide to the external building appropriate for either lifetime or EDM. A 14 meter splitter would overlap this guide by several meters. Modifying the FNPB guide (shortening it or including the splitter) will require DOE approval.

7. Takeyasu Ito7 Experimental Shielding Consideration –NIST lifetime experiment uses 4in Pb wall –Background at SNS expected to be ~1/5 of NIST –2 foot concrete walls surrounding three sides may be sufficient –Cost-estimate both options

8. Takeyasu Ito8 Experimental Shielding Option I (expensive) Experiment Conceptual design 4-in. thick, 3 m high lead walls with supporting structure surrounding the experiment 6m 2.5m

9. Takeyasu Ito9 Cost estimate Basis for estimate –Need 5.1 m 3 of lead –$0.90/lb for lead –$5K for design, $20K for fabrication, $15K for installation (based on a rough estimate from a company) Cost estimate –5.1x10 6 cm 3 x11g/cm 3 /(450g/lb)x$0.90/lb=$110K –$110K+$5K+$20K+$15K=$150K

10. Takeyasu Ito10 Experimental Shielding Option II (cheap) Experiment 6‘x2’x1’ non-reinforced concrete blocks (a la NIST guide hall shielding) Support structure (I beam tied to the floor) Conceptual design Height of the shielding = 3 m

11. Takeyasu Ito11 Cost estimate Basis for estimate –Need 100 6’x2’x1’ concrete blocks –$200/block (based on a quote of $650 for a 2’x3’x7’ block) –Need 12 I-beams –$500/I-beam (100lb/ft, 10ft I-beam, $0.42/lb) –80 hours of engineering oversight ($100/hour) Cost estimate –$200x100+$500x12+$100x80=$34K

12. Takeyasu Ito12 Beam Splitter/Polarizer Shielding Adopt the same design as the shielding for the beam line (a minor modification may be necessary) Preliminary conceptual design and cost estimate exist –Precast standard concrete, U shapes 2m high x 2/3 m wide x 30 m long. + miscellaneous pieces – 50 m 3 –$23K

13. Takeyasu Ito13 Cost Estimate Basis for estimate –$23K for 30 m long SNS UCN line shielding Cost estimate –$23K x 0.5 = $12K

14. Takeyasu Ito14 [ed. TVC] Table Entries Level 1 Cost ContingencyDurationFloat 3.1 Beam Line Shielding 45113 mo.1 mo. 3.2 Experiment Shielding 3073 mo.1 mo.

15. Takeyasu Ito15 [ed. TVC] Contingency Calculation Technical, cost, and schedule risk weights TechnicalCostScheduleRisk weight Material cost OR labor rateSame for all1 Design OR manufacturingMaterial cost AND labor rate 2 Design AND manufacturing4 Technical, cost, and schedule risk factors TechnicalCostScheduleRisk factor Existing design and off-the-shelf hardwareOff-the-shelf or catalog item1% Minor modifications to an existing designVendor quote from established drawingsNo schedule impact on any other item2% Extensive modifications to an existing designVendor quote with some design sketches3% New design, nothing exoticIn-house estimate based on previous similar experience Delays completion of non-critical path subsystem item 4% New design, different from established designs or existing technology In-house estimate for item with minimal experience but related to existing capabilities 6% New design, requires some R&D but does not advance the state-of-the-art In-house estimate for item with minimal experience and minimal in-house capability Delays completion of critical path subsystem item 8% New design, development of new technology which advances state-of-the-art Top-down estimate from analogous programs10% New design, way beyond the current state-of-the-artEngineering judgment15% Each item in the WBS is assigned three risk factors (F) and three risk weights (W). –State of design –Basis of cost estimate –Schedule criticality C = F i W i, where repeated indices imply summation. This procedure is standard among DOE HEP experiments.