1. Incorporating security into the post-2015 Development Agenda: Why and How? Dr Lisa Denney Overseas Development Institute 28 November 2013 Inter-Parliamentary Conference on the post-2015 Development Agenda

2. Definitional debates … What is security? Who is it for? Traditional State Security versus Human Security Politics of terminology: Peace Stability FragilityInsecurity Conflict Violence

3. What do we know about insecurity and underdevelopment? Conflict or crisis has disastrous effects on a country: o Lives and infrastructure are destroyed, education is interrupted o The rule of law breaks down o People are not able to invest in their futures o Service delivery and productive industries are disrupted o Investors are deterred Paul Collier estimates the average cost of a civil war is USD64 billion NGOs calculate that armed conflict cost Africa approximately USD 284 billion between 1990 and 2005 – almost the total amount of aid received in the same period. In the 1990s, countries plagued by conflict were increasingly those countries at the bottom of human development – Sierra Leone, Liberia, DRC and Somalia.

4. Fragile states are those most off-track in meeting MDG commitments:

5. What does this tell us? Apparent that improving development efforts depends on addressing the challenge of conflict. Importance of security in development further reinforced by World Bank’s 2011 World Development Report, which pointed to security, justice and jobs as key priorities for fragile and conflict-affected states. World Bank’s Voices of the Poor study in 2000, drew on interviews of approximately 60,000 poor people across 60 countries, who indicated that safety, security and justice issues were of central importance to their lives.

6. What creates and ends conflicts? Challenge integrating insecurity into post-2015 because conflicts aren’t all caused by the same things and can’t be alleviated by the same responses. 1. We know certain things play a role in triggering conflict: o Inequality: Research demonstrates that political and economic inequalities can be conflict triggers. o Grievance: Grievances, for instance against inequitable justice systems, can lead to violent revolt, as in Sierra Leone. o Oppression: Where people have not be able to express their political views can lead to violent revolt, as in the Arab Spring.

7. 2. We know certain things sustain conflict: o Global arms trade: Military expenditure in conflict-affected states grew by 15% from 2009-2010, while Official Development Assistance to these countries grew by only 9% o Poorly regulated natural resources: Resources such as diamonds and timber can help to fund armed groups, prolonging conflicts. o Regional dynamics: Conflict in neighbouring countries can spill over borders.

8. BUT … … So, while we can say that insecurity inhibits development, peace (in and of itself) does not necessarily drive development. This has implications for how issues of insecurity get incorporated in the post-2015 agenda. Perhaps it’s more accurate to include how conflict, violence or insecurity disrupts development, than how peace or stability contribute to development.

9. How violence / conflict can be measured What data is missing in these datasets that would be useful to measuring security in your own countries? o For example, when you hear a gunshot, rather than running away you go to investigate. Locally meaningful indicators are needed. There are various kinds of indicators o Outcome: o Capacity: o Perception: Many existing datasets: SIPRI, Global Peace Index, UNODC, Political Terror Scale, World Governance Indicators, Failed States Index, etc. What kind of indicators, and what and combination of indicators, give the most comprehensive picture of insecurity?

10. 1.Stand alone goal or integrated into other goals? 2.Global or country-specific indicators? -Need to consider whether all indicators are useful for all countries, or whether there should be some core indicators and some that countries can choose from. -For instance, while both the DRC and Honduras face significant security concerns that hold back development progress in those countries, they experience this insecurity differently. -How can we create a set of indicators that captures these different forms of insecurity? How can insecurity best be incorporated into the post-2015 framework