1. SubSaharan Africa and Southeast Asia in the American Age A Fast Review China After the Peak Africa, Australia and Southeast Asia Peter Zeihan Association of American Manufacturers November 5

2. Transport and the United States 400 2,000 4,000 60,000

3. Evolving Demography

4. The First Chinese Problem: Unity Northern consolidation difficult; Yellow River unnavigable  Beijing is the political/military capital Yangtze is navigable  Shanghai is the economic capital South has good ports, but (sub)tropical  Greatly retards northern control  Encourages foreign presence

5. The Second Chinese Problem: The Limits of Bribery Country requires social binding agent  Private capital pooled, then funneled at sub- market rates  Maximize employment by large firm size, market share and throughput at the cost of debt and profitability  Subsidizes inputs and outputs

6. ? The Third Chinese Problem: Nationwide Subprime

7. Three Thoughts on China Inflation/Deflation International credit up Commodities down Manufactured goods up Timing Matters Now not so bad 2015-2019: European consumption collapses and developed world demographics flip Development limitations Inland China is the only inland Asia

8. The China Wars

9. The African Geography Land of plateaus Extremely limited infra Only Chinese demand justifies most development Two (competing) exceptions

10. South Africa v Angola Mining and apartheid infrastructure 25 years later… The Angolan challenge –Oil, Benguela and … Ninjas Militant Proxies to Zaire/Congo Ninja Assistance to Zimbabwe Coup In Namibia Bombed Zambia Ninja Assistance to the other Congo

11. The Australian Geography Problematic geography Growth markets likely to tank… …but only non-US geography that can implement shale quickly And close to…

12. The Southeast Asian Geography China debris (economic and strategic) Powerful growth base effect Strong U.S. alignments All-urban polities Isolated population/ industrial hubs

13. Two Parting Thoughts The Biggest Deltas Indonesia –200+ million pop, half in one place –Singapore money, Malaysia middle- manufacturing Myanmar –Trying to escape China –Ayeyarwady is navigable! The New Trade Triangle US consumption Oz resources SEAsian manufacturing

14. National Stability: 2020-2040 The Accidental Superpower Coming September 2014

15. The South Asian Geography Ganges basin is radically fertile Rivers unnavigable (Sub)tropical throughout Divorced from Asia  Extremely low capital per capita  Crushing, endemic, inescapable poverty