1. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 Solar Meets the Peak Oil Challenge ASES Forum Peak Oil, Climate Recovery, and Renewable Energy Thursday 10:30am to 12:00pm Ron Swenson

2. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 Swenson’s Law

3. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 Roscoe Bartlett “It might seem possible to “fill the gap” in the short term. However, in the long term, this will be impossible. For one thing, it will hasten the exhaustion of other finite resources. That will make the inevitable transition to renewable sources more difficult and more painful.”

4. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 Energy Scoreboard Primary challenges are: EROEI Global Warming Scalability Timing

5. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 Why leave out Economics? Economics is an instrument of policy. It’s the last step in the process: –First figure out what works… –Then create incentives.

6. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 EROEI Energy Returned On Energy Invested ERoEI(field) >> ERoEI(solid, liquid, gas)

7. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 EROEI for PV EPBT: 5 years Life: 50 years Plus it can be bootstrapped EROEI = 10  30 ~ electric

8. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 EROEI for Thin Film PV EPBT: 6 months Life: 20 years EROEI = 40  120 ~electric

9. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 EROEI for Wind EPBT: 3 months Life: 20 years EROEI = 80  240 ~ electric

10. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 Global Warming Thanks to Al Gore, I can keep this short!

11. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 Atmospheric CO 2

12. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 Larsen B Ice Shelf Collapse Feb-Mar 2002 In about 35 days Larger than Rhode Island Totally baffled scientists 1 down, 4 to go

13. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 EROEI for Tar Sands Plus… Ravaged land Water contamination Extraction uses natural gas Low EROEI → Greenhouse gases EROEI = 3?

14. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 EROEI = 4  12 ~ electric EROEI for Nuclear Plus … Terrorism Waste guarded for 10,000+ years Depletion → low grade ores → Greenhouse gases … How do we value a 1,000 + year wasteland?

15. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 EROEI for Hydrogen Am I missing something?! EROEI = -½

16. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

17. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 Scalability Solar Energy Input (TeraWatts) 178,00 0 Reflected to Space Immediately53,000 Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat82,000 Used to Evaporate Water (Weather)40,000 Captured by Plant Photosynthesis100 Total Energy Used by Human Society 13 Total Energy Used by US Society2.5 Total Human Food Energy 0.6

18. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 Renewable Energy Solar 1.2 x 10 5 TW at Earth surface 600 TW practical Biomass 5-7 TW gross all cultivatable land not used for food Hydroelectric Geothermal Wind 2-4 TW extractable 4.6 TW gross 1.6 TW technically feasible 0.9 TW economically feasible 0.6 TW installed capacity 12 TW gross over land small fraction recoverable Tide/Ocean Currents 2 TW gross

19. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 There is no S SS Silver Bullet. Silver Why Silver in the first place? The Lone Range chose silver to emphasize that silver, like life, was precious and should not be wasted. Specific gravity of Pb = 11.35 AgSpecific gravity of Ag = 10.50 Ag Ag

20. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 There is no A AA Ag Bullet. Now I think I follow what you mean. Let’s find out why….

21. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 Corn Ethanol

22. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 Corn Ethanol Energy content 75% from fossil fuels: –Coal (electricity) > 40% –Natural gas (to heat mash) > 30% –Not to mention fertilizer, tractor & truck fuel Photosynthesis 5- 26% Depletes soil and water supplies Competes with food resources Not carbon-neutral

23. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 Sugar Cane Ethanol (Brazil) Meets 40% of demand Brazil per capita use is 10% of US  40% x 10% = 4% Many sugar cane workers are slaves Produces aldehydes in exhaust Soil and water conditions very different

24. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 Cellulosic Ethanol … Photosynthesis:Sunlight~ 0.25% Photosynthesis:PV (or STE)~ 0.5% - 2% USA: PV on all paved land 0.1 m km 2 ~ 11 Gb/yr (150%) USA: Cellulose from all forests 3 m km 2 ~ 6 Gb/yr (80%) USA: Cellulose from all ag land 1.5 m km 2 ~ 3 Gb/yr (40%)

25. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 Cellulosic Ethanol “All we need to do is change the make-up of ~25% of present wooded land space.” Land to achieve 30 Gb/yr15 m km 2 Global forests40 m km 2

26. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 Forest Facts Forests cover just under 4 billion hectares, 40 million km 2 or 30% of the total land area Global deforestation – 13 million hectares Net loss of forests – 7.3 million hectares 36% of the forest area has had little or no human impact Area of forest plantations 140 million hectares and increasing by 2.8 million hectares/year

27. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 Without Cellulosic Ethanol

28. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841

29. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 Ethanol Scorecard EROEI D Global Warming D Scalability D+ Timing C+

30. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 But renewables make electricity, not liquid fuels!? How do we handle transportation after peak oil?

31. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

32. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 Timing Application Technology: PRT Note distinction between application technology and generation technology. In relationship to peak oil and climate change, uses of energy are as critical as sources of energy.

33. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 Freeway at Capacity

34. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 Vehicles Removed

35. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 PRT Passengers

36. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 PRT System

37. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 Solar PRT

38. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 Solar PRT 10 kw @ 100 mph 36 vehicles/mi at 1 second interval  360 kw needed in a mile stretch  68 watts / lineal ft per lane at peak sun 10 hrs peak operation, 5 hrs sun  720 kw / mile  8.3 ft wide solar panel at full capacity

39. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 Solar PRT Capacity Skytran: Two people every second –7,200 passengers per hour –72,000 passengers per day Rail: –About 8,000 passengers per hour –60,000 passengers per day –Washington, DC ~ 41,000 pass-mile / route-mile Highway: 1.2 average occupancy –2400 persons per lane / hour

40. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 Solar PRT Scorecard EROEI A Global Warming A Scalability B- Timing D+

41. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 PV: The Growth Industry Oil declines at 4%/yr(?) PV increases at 50%/yr ?

42. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006 Wake Up!!!

43. ASES July 2006www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006