The Pretenders IEA, EIA Shell, BP Saudi Aramco Lynch, Adelman Yergin Lovins
The Pretenders (closer to home) “ The Commission does not embrace the view that world oil production has peaked — The National Commission on Energy Policy
The Hubbert Peak We know it’s coming … but what can we do about it?
A flurry of books on the subject … www.HubbertPeak.com/Library
Hubbert's Peak “At the moment, solar and wind power are developing in specialized areas. Neither is an immediate, large-scale solution to the energy problem.” Kenneth S. Deffeyes www.HubbertPeak.com/apollo2
Beyond Oil “Solar electrical generation is not yet competitive for large- scale facilities... To my surprise, solar cells to produce 60 watts cost $1,000.” Kenneth S. Deffeyes www.HubbertPeak.com/apollo2
The Party's Over “Photovoltaic electricity is still expensive.” Richard Heinberg www.HubbertPeak.com/apollo2
The End of Oil “Solar energy technology 'is still too expensive by a factor of four to compete with nuclear and by a factor of three to compete with natural gas,' says Paul Maycock... “Solar faces two related obstacles -- prohibitive costs and a [bad] reputation...” Paul Roberts www.pvenergy.com
“But all of them combined -- sun, wind, and water -- could never produce enough energy to replace the astronomical amounts of fossil fuel the West is accustomed to consuming now.” Pierre Chomat Oil Addiction: The World in Peril www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm
Global Solar Energy Balance Solar Energy Input (TeraWatts)178,000 Reflected to Space Immediately53,000 Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat82,000 Used to Evaporate Water (Weather)40,000 Captured by Plant Photosynthesis100 Total Energy Used by Human Society 10 Total Energy Used by US Society2.5 Total Human Food Energy 0.6 www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm
Oil, Jihad & Destiny “Solar power technology, however, is still in the stone age.” Ronald R. Cooke www.HubbertPeak.com/Youngquist
The Long Emergency “Active solar power... works, though not nearly as well as fossil fuel… “Alternative energy sources... are … implausible … without the subsidy of oil. The only remaining alternative is nuclear energy.” James Howard Kunstler www.HubbertPeak.com/nuclear
Over a Barrel “... The amount of solar energy that falls on a car yields very marginal performance. “ Current technology for solar- generated electricity results in costly power.” Tom Mast www.SolaREvolution.com
I think they´re trying to tell us something … But wait…. Economics is an instrument of Policy
The Energy Cost of Energy 3% decline per year Annual contribution from alternate energy source 100 75 Cumulative new energy from investment Useful Lifetime 25 Years Net Energy Analysis www.HubbertPeak.com/Modeling
The Energy Cost of Energy Available (net) Energy after Investment Cumulative new energy from investment 100 75 85 60 Net Energy Analysis www.HubbertPeak.com/Modeling
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 10 20 30 40 Time Consequence of Delayed Investment begin investment before decline Net Energy Production Begin investment during decline www.HubbertPeak.com/BeyondOil
Thermodynamics of Coal Plus… Greenhouse gases Ravaged land Water contamination People displaced Extraction uses oil ?
Thermodynamics of Oil It depends … Pennsylvania? Saudi Arabia? Off-shore? Plus Ravaged land/oceans Greenhouse gases Water contamination ?
Thermodynamics of Tar Sands Plus… Greenhouse gases Ravaged land Water contamination Extraction uses natural gas
Thermodynamics of Nuclear ? Plus … Depletion Low grade ores → Greenhouse gases to process Wastes guarded for 10,000+ years … How do we value a 1,000(?) year wasteland?
Thermodynamics of Hydrogen A possible solution for special applications? Motivations? Promote nuclear? Promote natural gas? Deliberate distraction? Earnest ignorance?
Thermodynamics of PV EROI: 5 years Life: 50 years
Thermodynamics of Thin Film PV EROI: 6 months Life: 25 years
Thermodynamics of Wind EROI: 3 months Life: 25 years
Thermodynamics vs. Economics Policy can´t defeat Mother Nature. … in the long run … Thermo-dynamics wins!
Solar Economics: A Brief History Thomas Edison Bucky Fuller Hazel Henderson Hermann Scheer Richard Smalley
Thomas Edison “I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle that.” (1847-1931) www.ThomasEdison.com
Hazel Henderson “The US oil, coal and automobile lobbies are still trying to hold back the future information- based, Solar Age. They should start investing more in this cleaner, greener future.” 1989 www.environomics.org
Colin Campbell “Photovoltaics … will be economic … when there is serious production.” 1996 www.HubbertPeak.com/Campbell
Hermann Scheer “Solar technologies are … potentially the most economic solution.” 2004 www.HubbertPeak.com/Scheer
Richard Smalley “Think TeraWatts” 2004 Smalley.Rice.edu → Our Energy Challenge
Solar Industry Response? Goal 50% US electricity by 2025 Target 200 gW by 2030 = 10% How? Federal government procurement $100 m/year R&D investment $250 m/year by 2010 “Enact, modify, establish, boost, support, increase, strengthen, grow…”
Swenson´s Law To avoid deprivation resulting from the exhaustion of non- renewable resources, humanity must employ conservation and renewable resource substitutes sufficient to match depletion.
The conclusion is simple: We are not doing enough. To spend our depleting energy capital resources effectively, we must first understand the Thermodynamics (EROI) of the alternatives. Economics or Thermodynamics: Which will we choose?
Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil? Yes! Think TeraWatts