1. Global Electrification: Trends and Challenges David G. Victor Program on Energy & Sustainable Development Stanford University presented at: Chinese Academy of Social Sciences 18 March 2005

2. What is Electrification? At least three definitions: 1.Access to Power 2.Use of Power 3.Pervasiveness of Electricity in the Economy I will focus on #1 and #2.

3. PESD studies on “Energy Transitions” China: CASS Partnership –What explains China’s success with rural electrification? South Africa: ERC Partnership –MARKAL/TIMES; market failure analysis; new modeling tools; data assimilation India: several partnerships –Energy and Agriculture: general equilibrium modeling –Assessing electrification policies and patterns: peri-urban and rural –For profit distributed generation (India & Mexico) –Advanced metering and rural grid control

4. This talk: three points Broad Patterns in Electrification –Global, Regional, National & Household Evidence on the Causes and Consequences of Electrification Industrial Organization & Electricity Policy

5. 1. Broad Patterns in Electrification

6. Global Access to Electricity: 1970 to 2030 People with Access to Electricity People w/o Access to Electricity 2000 – Total population 6B Source: World Energy Outlook 2002, IEA 1.6B/27% 1.4B /17% 2030 – Total population 8.2B 1970 – Total population 3.7B 1.9B /51%

7. Regional Electricity Access: Limits Source: International Energy Agency, WEO 2002 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1970197519801985199019952000200520102015202020252030 People without Electricity Access (millions) South Asia (India) Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia (China) Today

8. % Electrified, Southern Africa (1999): The Rural-Urban Divide CountryUrbanRural Botswana262 Lesotho144 Malawi11<1 Mozambique17<1 Namibia265 South Africa8046 Swaziland422 Tanzania131 Zambia181 Zimbabwe65<1 Source: Gaunt, Load Research Programme, Energy Research Centre - Cape Town South Africa,

9. % Households Electrified by Income Quintile (1988) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Vietnam Nicaragua S. Africa Income Quintile % Households Electrified Source: ESMAP, 2002. Energy Services for the World’s Poor. 1 2 3 4 5

10. Average Energy Demand by Income Segment: Brazil (1988) Source: adapted from de Almeida and de Oliveira, 1995

11. Some Additional Issues: Measurement & Theory Measurement: –(eg.) Village vs. Household electrification in India: »85 % villages electrified »37% households electrified Theory: –(e.g.) Is theft an electrification strategy?

12. Electricity Losses (%), 2001 Source: World Bank World Development Indicators, 2004

13. 2. On the Causes of Electrification Economy Urbanization Policy

14. Cause (and Consequence): Economic Growth Source: World Development Indicators, 2002

15. Cause: Urbanization (2000) Source: Urban population Data from World Development Indicators, 2004. World Bank. Electrification Rates from World Energy Outlook, 2002. IEA. Gabon Thailand Vietnam China

16. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Cause (?): Policy The U.S. Rural Electrification Experience REA Created

17. Cause: Policy South Africa’s National Electrification Achievement PAST FUTURE? PRESENT FUTURE! FUTURE? Source: Gaunt, Load Research Programme, Energy Research Centre - Cape Town South Africa, -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000 2001 Urban Rural ( thousands )

18. Additional Slides

19. Consequence (?): Health Global Burden of Disease 05101520 Malnutrition Alcohol use Tobacco use Illicit drug use Unsafe sex or unwanted pregnancy Hypertension Physical inactivity Poor water and sanitation Occupational hazards Outdoor air pollution Indoor air pollution Source: Smith (2000) and Murray and Lopez (1996), as summarized in WEA (2000). % of Total

20. Consequence (?): Education Electricity Consumption and Literacy (1999) Source: Illiteracy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above) (SE.ADT.ILIT.ZS)

21. Industrial Organization & Policy: Implications for Electrification Load Management Organization of the Power System

22. South Africa, estimated typical winter week peak cycle, 2015 Source: Eskom (draft)

23. South Africa’s Free Electricity Experiment: Measured Effects (7-15 kWh/month) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 2000 Q12000 Q32001 Q12001 Q32002 Q12002 Q32003 Q1 Year/Quarter Consumption in bin (kWh/month) Pilot (Sales + EBSST) Control (Sales) Pilot (EBSST) Source: Gaunt, Load Research Programme, Energy Research Centre - Cape Town South Africa.

24. Cost-saving Alternatives to Free Electricity: LPG Peak Co-incidence FactorAnnualized Savings (Rand) 100%401 90%353 80%305 70%258 60%210 50%162 Source: Howells et al., 2005. Draft