1. Trends in Kenyan Agricultural Productivity: 1997-2007 Betty Kibaara, Joshua Ariga, Thomas Jayne and John Olwande Conference on: Agricultural Productivity, Competitiveness and Rural Poverty in Kenya: Laying the Foundation for Vision 2030 17-18 September, 2008

2. Presentation Outline  Background  Objectives of the Study  Data and methods  Trends in land ownership and cultivated land  Contribution of crop income  Trends in productivity  Factors contributing to productivity growth, decline or stagnation  Policy implications

3. Background Agricultural productivity levels in SSA below that of other regions in the World Since 2000, productivity growth in SSA impressive In the past, agricultural production largely a function of acreage, further growth will have to be driven by productivity growth Local and Regional strategies Strategy for Revitalizing Agriculture (SRA) Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Program (CAADP) Alliance for Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) Kenya Vision 2030

4. Objectives To examine trends in the Kenyan agricultural productivity Cereal (maize) Industrial crops( tea, coffee and sugarcane) Horticultural crops ( Irish potatoes and cabbages) Dairy Explore factors driving or hindering productivity growth Draw implications for policy and suggest actions needed for sustainable productivity growth

5. Contribution (%) of Crop Income to the overall Annual Household Income Zone1997200020042007 Coastal Lowlands242.44.2 Eastern Lowlands2.33.73.64.7 Western Lowlands32.6 5.6 Western Transitional5.37.58.810.7 High Potential Maize Zone11.510.413.813.3 Western Highlands5.611.96.68.8 Central Highlands715.29.210.3 Marginal Rain Shadow2.10.94.24.6 Overall Sample6.68.88.29.3

6. Trends in Owned and Cultivated Land 6% decline in mean per household owned land (from a 6.1 in 1997 acres to 5.8 acres in 2007) Cultivated land declined slightly from 3.5 acres in 1997 to 3.4 acres per household in 2007 Commodity1997200020042007 Mean Cultivated acres/HH that produced the commodity Maize1.82.21.9 Tea1.081.041.011.05 Sugarcane2.18 2.032.5 Coffee0.560.550.490.48 Cabbages0.380.240.21 Potatoes0.580.590.480.44

7. Mean Maize Productivity Zone1997200020042007 90 kg - bags/acre Coastal Lowlands242.44.2 Eastern Lowlands2.33.73.64.7 Western Lowlands32.6 5.6 Western Transitional5.37.58.810.7 High Potential Maize Zone11.510.413.813.3 Western Highlands5.611.96.68.8 Central Highlands78.89.210.3 Marginal Rain Shadow2.10.94.24.6 Overall Sample6.67.28.29.3 40% growth

8. Maize Productivity- Pure stand Vs Intercrop YearOverallPure standIntercrop (90 –kg bags/acre) 19976.69.86.1 20008.89.68.8 20048.210.48.1 20079.311.29.1 78% of Total maize area is intercropped

9. Drivers of Maize Productivity Growth 1997200020042007 Fertilizer adoption (% of hhs)57636771 Fertilizer use rate (kg/acre)56556059 Increased use of organic fertilizer444750 % of hhs adopting High yielding maize varieties7069 74 % of hhs using fertilizer plus hybrid maize seed51555761 Distance to fertilizer seller8.15.74.13.4 Distance to seller of hybrid maizeN/A5.63.93.4 Number of maize seed varieties planted Western Transitional1727 High Potential Maize Zone2332 Western Highlands918

10. Tea Productivity (Kgs of green leaf per acre/year) ZoneDistrict1997200020042007 High Potential Maize ZoneBomet4,0173,7653,8783,704 Western HighlandsKisii2,1423,1543,3584,278 Vihiga8971,6242,6424,549 Central HighlandsMeru4,3644,4445,5105,147 Murang’a4,7224,4614,2154,674 Nyeri4,6534,2954,5144,706 Overall Kg/acre3,9313,8694,2064,507 Overall kg/tea bush1.121.111.211.29 15% growth

11. Drivers of Tea Productivity Growth Increasing fertilizer adoption (% of hhs) 84% to 98% Increasing fertilizer use rate (kg/acre) Western highlands (Vihiga & Kisii)

12. Coffee Productivity (Cherries in kg/acre ) Zone1997200020042007 Eastern Lowlands790326134432 Western Lowlands279429569321 Western Transitional80026217641 High Potential Maize Zone551539352357 Western Highlands9861,2851,849993 Central Highlands1,9332,6161,8101,639 Overall Sample1,4591,8261,5771,285 30% decline since 2000

13. Factors affecting Coffee productivity 1997200020042007 Fertilizer adoption (% hhs) 44514537 Fertilizer use rate (kg/acre) 183364256147 No. of hhs producing coffee 257308283250 Management problems Declining international prices

14. Sugarcane Productivity (tonnes/acre) ZoneDistrict1997200020042007 Western LowlandsKisumu18.115.915.721.4 Western TransitionalBungoma37.431.634.727.4 Kakamega20.426.726.123.4 Overall Sample22.326.126.723.9 8.4% productivity decline since 2000

15. Factors contributing to decline in Sugarcane productivity 1997200020042007 Fertilizer adoption (% hhs) 29514969 Fertilizer use rate (kg/acre) 118197141110 No. hhs producing s/cane 161154158145 Poor cane varieties Low sucrose level & high fibre content Take long to mature

16. Cabbage Productivity (Kg/acre) ZoneYear Mean productivity (kg/acre) % of hhs using fertilizer No. of hhs producing cabbages Area under production (acres/hh) High Potential Maize Zone19978,94864310.34 20007,188511120.20 20043,30450810.18 20075,33847450.17 Central Highlands19976,78368650.38 200011,82983910.29 200413,18778790.18 200711,10180930.17 Overall Sample19977,46466960.37 20009,269672030.24 20048,184641600.18 20079,222631380.17 23% Cabbage Productivity Growth, but fluctuating

17. Irish Potato Productivity (Kg/acre) ZoneYear Mean productivity (kg/acre) % of hhs using fertilizer No. of hhs producing potatoes Area under production (acres/hh) High Potential Maize Zone19972,52645850.58 20004,291491900.68 20042,651481820.48 20073,013421400.54 Central Highlands19972,398791790.49 20005,169872120.51 20042,860832190.43 20072,810852190.34 Overall Sample19972,440622640.52 20004,752684020.59 20042,765664010.45 20072,889633590.42 18% Cabbage Productivity Growth, but fluctuating trends

18. Annual Milk productivity (liters/cow/year) Zone1997200020042007 Coastal Lowlands139418207701 Eastern Lowlands688856785890 Western Lowlands327360367 Western Transitional6776628121,022 High Potential Maize Zone1,2699731,3131,692 Western Highlands9021,0051,071836 Central Highlands1,8561,9692,2431,991 Marginal Rain Shadow1,0156321,4881,434 Overall Sample1,1641,0791,2981,371 18% productivity growth

19. Drivers of Milk Productivity Growth Partial Factors1997200020042007 Households growing fodder (%)16374653 Proportion of cultivated land allocated to fodder (%)36712 HHs with improved cows (%)62657066 Nominal prices of milk in Ksh/lt 1418 19 Constant prices of milk (GDP deflator) 25262219

20. Other cross cutting services 1997200020042007 Distance to Motorable roads1.11.31.10.5 Distances to Tarmac roads8.27.77.6 Distance to crops extension service (private and public)5.45.55.24.6 Distance to veterinary service4.844.34 % received agricultural credit25.729.625.532.8

21. Sources of Agricultural Credit Sources of Agricultural credit1997200020042007 Commodity Based credit providers 13.555.862.248.7 (KTDA, sugar company etc) Informal money lenders16.510.68.619.8 Traders/Input stockists10.46.23.710.5 Cooperatives/SACCOs55.825.921.910.3 Agricultural Finance Corporation30.51.75.2 MFI/NGO-0.50.63.1 Commercial banks0.80.51.22.5

22. Benchmarking Kenya’s Agricultural Productivity CommodityTegemeo PanelBenchmarking countries ( FAO) Maize (bags/acre) 9 SA- 13 bags/acre Argentina-31 bags/acre Tea (kg/acre) 4,507 Malawi – 3,523 India – 2,774 Uganda- 2,601 Coffee ( processed) (kg/acre) 214 Brazil- 345 Colombia – 436 Uganda - 213 Sugarcane (tonnes/acre) 28 – 25 Egypt – 40 Malawi – 43 Sudan - 42 Dairy (litres/cow per year) 1,371 Argentina – 4,773 South Africa – 3,093 Malawi- 461 Uganda 331

23. Summary of the Productivity Trends Increased Productivity Maize Tea Dairy Declined Productivity Coffee Sugarcane Fluctuating Productivity Horticulture (cabbages Irish potatoes)

24. Key drivers of productivity growth Infrastructure improvements Increased fertilizer use Technology generation and adoption Improved seed varieties Uptake of improved dairy cows Role of markets

25. Policy Implications Sustainability of high fertilizer adoption against rising global fertilizer prices requires innovative financing through Private Public Partnership. Transaction costs of inputs could be reduced through investment in ‘public goods’ such as physical infrastructure. Emerging role of input dealers in input delivery system. Up scaling the agro dealer training program could further improve access to inputs Given the declining land sizes within the smallholder farming sectors of in Kenya, land allocation and land settlement will need to be on the policy agenda. Introduction of early maturity and high yielding sugarcane varieties would increase efficiency and raise rural household incomes Irish potatoes are a good substitute and especially with the current rise in maize prices. However, there is no certified potato seed growers in the country. Provision of clean seed could be jointly undertaken by the private sector, development and the government