1. 1 REGIO gis The use of geostatistics for the analysis of Europe’s regions Hugo Poelman European Commission – DG Regional Policy hugo.poelman@ec.europa.eu EFGS workshop, Den Haag, 6 October 2009

2. 2 REGIO gis The geographical framework Policy-supporting analysis of the European regions NUTS regions: the backbone of the analytical framework –Role in implementing cohesion policy interventions –Legal background (NUTS Regulation) –NUTS2 and NUTS3 levels allowing for different levels of detail –Statistical system providing extensive datasets

3. 3 REGIO gis Issues with NUTS regions Spatially heterogeneous Changes over time Most regions are more administrative than functional Thematic data availability varies Regional breakdown is more appropriate for some themes, less for others Border effects between countries and regions

4. 4 REGIO gis Extended thematic needs Challenges with regional / territorial dimension, e.g. –Climate change effects –Infrastructure and (public) services –Accessibility and connectivity –Environment and quality of life –Energy Statistical systems often have difficulties to tackle the regional dimension of these areas

5. 5 REGIO gis Use cases of geostatistics Exploration of the use of geostatistics –Helping to overcome some of the issues related to (administrative) regions –Allowing for better analysis of various georeferenced data, e.g. Remote sensing Network related data –Improvement of the development of regional typologies

6. 6 REGIO gis Key data source in geostatistics Many analysis cases rely upon the use of a regular and sufficiently detailed population distribution 1 km² registered population data for available countries Population disaggregation layer (JRC – Javier Gallego) for the other countries, aggregated at 1 km² cell size

7. 7 REGIO gis Overcome issues related to irregular regions A few examples: –1) Availability and accessibility of passenger flights –2) Estimate of potential market size

8. 8 REGIO gis 1) Accessibility to passenger flights Various statistical data can be (almost directly) exploited at regional level –Departures per airport –Air traffic data at NUTS2 level Results are hardly meaningful when only considering the region where the airport is located Accessibility analysis tries to overcome the border effects of the regions

9. 9 REGIO gis 1) Accessibility to passenger flights Basic data –Airport locations + data on departing passenger flights –Road transport network –Population distribution Results –Areas where a certain number of flights is easily accessible –Population-weighted regional average figures on available and accessible flights

10. 10 REGIO gis

11. 11 REGIO gis 2) Potential market size Estimate the amount of GDP or population available within a pre-defined neighbourhood Within the neighbourhood, distance is taken into account Analysis is carried out using rasters with 1 km² and 10 x 10 km cells NUTS2 regions used as reporting units

12. 12 REGIO gis 2) Potential market size Basic data –Regional GDP/head figures in PPS –Population distribution grid –NUTS polygons and derived NUTS grid Results –Focal sum of GDP (or population) –Regional averages of the obtained focal sums –Results expressed as index of EU average for easier interpretation

13. 13 REGIO gis

14. 14 REGIO gis Enhanced analysis of various georeferenced sources Geostatistics help in establishing links between data from remote sensing and regional or territorial reporting units Especially relevant in the area of the environment, climate change effects, hazards, etc.

15. 15 REGIO gis Concentrations of PM10 Basic data –Grid layers from GMES PROMOTE project with yearly summary data on concentrations of PM10 (similar data also for ozone) –Population distribution

16. 16 REGIO gis Concentrations of PM10 Results –Population-weighted regional average concentrations of PM10 –Same approach can also be applied to other territories (e.g. major agglomerations)

17. 17 REGIO gis Development of typologies Regional and territorial typologies often need to refer to data / variables which make sense at lower levels than the level at which the typology is to be applied Choice between regular grids and local administrative units ?? Regular grids often have an advantage when using data on geophysical or natural phenomena and help to overcome the MAUP

18. 18 REGIO gis Typologies using a regular population distribution Mountain regions, based a comparison of the population grid and a geophysical definition of mountain areas Typology of rural areas according to their remoteness –Evaluation of the accessibility of city centres via the road network –Share of regional population living at more than 45 minutes from city centres

19. 19 REGIO gis Findings on use cases Use of geostatistics for regional policy started in rather experimental way But resulted in various indicator sets, used in further analysis and reports –Green paper on territorial cohesion –Regions2020 report –Cohesion reports More use and more “visibility” of the results also means more requirements…

20. 20 REGIO gis Overview of current use cases of a population grid with 1 km² resolution TimelinessResolutionIssues with other data Accessibility to passenger flights road network attributes Remoteness from city centres city location and definition Potential market size regional GDP/head values Ozone exceedances raster resolution of remote sensing data PM10 concentrations raster resolution of remote sensing data Proximity of natural areas CLC resolution and timeliness Accessibility to universities, hospitals definition and location of services Coastal population living at very low elevation Population affected by river floods Typology of mountain regions / island regions resolution and selection of islands Typology of urban and metro regions UMZ related to CLC data, Urban Audit LUZ compared to NUTS3

21. 21 REGIO gis Further developments (1) Topics related to a common European definition of rasters –Rules and methods for conversion of national grids into European ones –Issue of cell size for European-wide analysis of regions and territories Trade-off between precision, analysis effort and confidentiality issues –De-facto standard used at EU level (JRC / EEA)

22. 22 REGIO gis Further developments (2) Timeliness and frequency of essential geostatistical datasets –Weakness of current analysis: 2000-2001 time stamp of major population grid –New thematic datasets with emerging time series require the use of corresponding population distribution –Timely land cover datasets –Disaggregation may help to overcome incompleteness of data

23. 23 REGIO gis Further developments (3) Enlarge the thematic scope –Various analyses would benefit from the use of other raster datasets than merely total population Key demographic breakdowns (age classes) Employment (day/night time population) Location of services? –Issues of harmonisation and definition –Confidentiality?

24. 24 REGIO gis Outlook Continued and enhanced use of currently available geostatistical sources Help awareness raising by demonstrating and documenting use cases Promote (via Eurostat) further development of European-wide geostatistical datasets and methodologies

25. 25 REGIO gis References Green Paper on Territorial Cohesion http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/consultation/terco/paper_terco_annex.pdf Regions2020 report http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docoffic/working/regions2020 /index_en.htm Regional Focus –01/2008: Remote rural regions –01/2009: Metropolitan regions in the EU http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/study_ en.htm 5 th Cohesion Report (due in Autumn 2010)