1. Oregon Presented by: Office of Economic Analysis Date: September 22, 2009 Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee

2. 2 Overview Introductions, Business Meetings next year – see handout Feb. 16, 2010 and March 16, 2010 prior to April forecast Aug. 24, 2010 and Sept. 14, 2010 prior to October forecast All at 1:30 to 3:30 in this building Topics Crime rate report Population summary Forecast tracking M57 implementation/phase-in Forecast direction for October release Forecast Risks/Issues

3. 3 Recent Crime Report FBI UCR stats for 2008 Violent crime down 9% Property crime down 6% Simple assumption: DOC intakes follow crime Crimes  arrests  charges  prison admissions Is this true? Roughly 6 month lag from crime to prison intake Inmate intakes not (yet?) following similar pattern

4. 4 Violent Crime DOC Inmate Admits Violent crime and DOC person felony intakes Indexed to year 2000, intakes lagged 6 months 2008 Crime Person Felony Intakes 7/1/2008 to 6/30/2009

5. 5 Inmate Population Inmate count, months to serve M11 – still dominating Months to serve (projected months) Gender Crime type

6. 6 Inmate Population Number of Inmates Jan 2000 to current: 9,500 to 14,000 (47% growth)

7. 7 Inmate Population Projected months to go (person-months) Jan 2000 to current: 642k to 900k (38% growth)

8. 8 Inmate Population Average months served, projected months to go

9. 9 Inmate Population Measure 11 Number of inmates

10. 10 Inmate Population Measure 11 Projected months to go

11. 11 Inmate Population Percentage Female % of inmates, % of projected months to go

12. 12 Inmate Population Percentage Female Female % of inmates by crime type

13. 13 Inmate Forecast Tracking Tracking below forecast Baseline forecast too high  Intakes  Releases higher than expected M57 impact slower than expected  Slower flow through courts to intake

14. 14 Inmate Forecast Tracking April 2009 Monthly increase in population (smoothed) Sept 2009: 13,972 actual, 14,145 forecast (1.2%) Actual Forecast Baseline Forecast baseline plus M57

15. 15 M57 Update Approximately 309 so far (DOC “flag”) 290 Known issues with flag in DOC data Deschutes example (2, 4, 7, 13 ) Significant indirect influences Revised estimates for Oct. forecast M57 phases in more slowly HB 3508 impact Phase out (Feb. 15, 2009), Phase in (Jan. 2012) Individual county DA policies Possible plea to old RPO sentencing? Discuss as risk but not included explicitly in forecast

16. 16 Inmate Forecast Tracking Long Term Forecast Error Performance of past inmate forecasts Past 10 years of forecasting Several graphs Track of every prior forecast Errors at +2 and +4 years from forecast date Forecast range possibilities Forecast error 4 years out

17. 17 Inmate Population Long Term Tracking Oct. 1999 April 2001 Actual

18. 18 Inmate Population Long Term Tracking Oct. 2001 April 2003

19. 19 Inmate Population Long Term Tracking Oct. 2003 to April 2005

20. 20 Inmate Population Long Term Tracking Oct. 2005 to April 2007

21. 21 Inmate Population Long Term Tracking Oct. 2007 to April 2009

22. 22 Inmate Population Long Term Tracking

23. 23 Inmate Population Long Term Tracking Error of past forecasts: +2 years and +4 years

24. 24 Inmate Population Long Term Tracking Approximate confidence ranges 65% confidence: Forecast +2 years: 700 beds (+/- 350) Forecast +4 years: 1,380 beds (+/- 690) 90% confidence: Forecast +2 years: 1,160 beds (+/- 580) Forecast +4 years: 2,280 beds (+/- 1,140) Standard deviations of observed forecast errors are 353 and 689 for +2 and +4 years out from forecast, respectively.

25. 25 Community Corrections Population Local control – sentence 12 months or less Probation New inactive status Parole/PPS Level III sanctions Number has significantly decreased since 2000

26. 26 Community Corrections Population

27. 27 Community Corrections Population Local Control on expanded scale (right side)

28. 28 Community Corrections Tracking Previous forecast had substantial decrease Short story: Populations tracked below forecast – December 2008 through May 2009 Local control: 11% below forecast Parole/PPS: 3% below forecast Probation: 2% below forecast

29. 29 Community Corrections Tracking Probation Parole/PPS Local Control Previous Forecast Actuals

30. 30 October 2009 Forecast Community corrections: small adjustments Plan active/inactive breakdown later if needed Inmate population: Baseline: near-term downward revision, little change to long term trend (slight increase?) M57, HB1085, AIP adjustments: M57 revised estimates built into HB1085. Small increase for 20% max on AIP.

31. 31 Forecast Risks M57 and HB3508 (short and long term) Plea practices 30% ET, AIP, ICE Unvalidated assumptions Continued risk – inability to separate effects Law changes (short and long term) Changes in trends – sociological (long term) Forecast model

32. 32 Forecast Release/ Future Meetings Forecast Released October 1 st. Meetings: February 16 1:30 – 3:30 p.m. DAS Executive Building Conference Room B (2 nd floor) March 16 1:30 – 3:30 p.m. DAS Executive Building Conference Room B (2 nd floor) April 1 Corrections Forecast release August 24 1:30 – 3:30 p.m. DAS Executive Building SMFS Conference Room (1 st floor) September 14 1:30 – 3:30 p.m. DAS Executive Building Conference Room B (2 nd floor) October 1 Corrections Forecast release All meetings will be held at the Department of Administrative Services, Executive Building located at 155 Cottage Street NE, Salem, OR 97301

33. 33 Office of Economic Analysis 155 Cottage Street NE, U20 Salem, OR 97301-3966 (503) 378-3405 email: oea.info@das.state.or.us http://oregon.gov/DAS/OEA/ For more information… Office of Economic Analysis