1. World Economic and Trade Outlook The World of Trade Data IMSF 2009 Annual Meeting May 4-6, 2009 New Orleans, LA Elizabeth Rouhani Consultant Global Commerce and Transport

2. Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. IHS Global Insight Global Insight was founded in 2001 with the merger of WEFA (est. 1963) and DRI (est. 1968). In the 7 years that followed, we expanded our offerings and expertise through key acquisitions. In October 2008, Global Insight became part of the IHS family.

3. Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. (Percent change for the world economy) The Business Cycle is Not Dead The World Economy Recovers Starting in 2010

4. Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. (Real GDP, percent change) Economic Performance Varies by Region Developed Country Economies Are Shrinking

5. Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. World Seaborne Tonnage Falls 2.8% in 2009 (Percent Change in Tonnage of World Sea Trade)

6. Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. World Container Trade Volume Down 5.8%in 2009 (Percent Change in Volume of Container Trade, in TEUs)

7. Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. World Trade Service TOTAL TRADE VALUE (Nom-Real) TOTAL TRADE METRIC TONS SEA AIR OTHER CONTAINER TONS DRY BULK LIQUID BULK GENERAL CARGO 20’ 40’ TEUs  16 Trade Concepts  70 Country/regions (World)  77 ISIC Commodity categories  History  Value 1980  Tons 1995  20 years forecast horizon  Updated quarterly

8. Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. Sources for Trade and other Indicators IHS Global Insight World Trade Service IHS Global Insight World Trade Service UN Statistics Canada* US Census Bureau OECD Eurostat Industry Public Sources Government Agencies Ports Others

9. Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. UN Data Experience  85% of trade is reported in weight.  Late reporting: 2 year lag for some countries  Data revisions for timeseries  Mirror trade discrepancies  Countries do not report all their trade  Saudi Arabia exports to Taiwan –Taiwan not official member state of UN, therefore cannot show their trade.  Areas, nes  9310 SITC Special Transaction commodity  Unit Values inconsistencies

10. Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.  Reconciliation of trade statistics…is it possible?  Main difference is the methodology for reporting. –Belgium maintains 2 different trade datasets UN – EUROSTAT data differences Belgium EU Concept Country of Consignments National Concept Country of Origin for Imports United Nations Eurostat

11. Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. US Census Bureau  All methods data – vessel, air, and container  Custom Districts –Port level  HS 10 digit or 6 digit  Only a few commodities have been difficult to size –Fertilizers –Coal

12. Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. WTS vs Other Sources  Ports  PIERS  Other Sources –Our numbers are based on final destination –No transshipments –No military cargo –For containers, it is based on full not empty. Do not account for container movements

13. Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. Snapshot of the Navigator

14. Thank You! Elizabeth Rouhani elizabeth.rouhani@ihsglobalinsight.com