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PNWA International Trends For Northwest Grain Markets By Amer Y. Badawi Vice President Columbia Grain International, Inc.

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Presentation on theme: "PNWA International Trends For Northwest Grain Markets By Amer Y. Badawi Vice President Columbia Grain International, Inc."— Presentation transcript:

1 PNWA International Trends For Northwest Grain Markets By Amer Y. Badawi Vice President Columbia Grain International, Inc.

2 Global Seaborne Dry Bulk Trade Grain Market Review Transportation Trends & Challenges Topics

3 GLOBAL SEABORNE DRY BULK TRADE

4 Dry Bulk Seaborne Trade Iron ore Iron ore Coal, Coke Coal, Coke Grains, Agribulks Grains, Agribulks Bauxite, Alumina, Phosphate Rock Bauxite, Alumina, Phosphate Rock Sugar Sugar Fertilizer Fertilizer Scrap, Steel Products, Pig Iron Scrap, Steel Products, Pig Iron Cement Cement Forest Products Forest Products

5 Seaborne Bulk Profile Clarkson Research & other

6 Seaborne Dry Bulk Trade Forecast Clarkson Research & other Historical Forecast adjustment from 6% to 3% growth.

7 IRON ORE

8 Iron Ore Trade volume

9 COAL

10 Thermal Coal Trade volume

11 Coking Coal Trade volume

12 GRAIN MARKET OVERVIEW

13 General Outlook for Grain 08/09 World Consumption up by 30MT (1.8%) to 1,714 MT. Almost entirely due to rise in Ethanol use; set to reach 124 MT. Slight increase in direct food consumption 0.6%. Trade Forecast up 4.1%

14 Grain Imports by Region PNW’s Geographical Advantage

15 World Grain Exports

16 Grain Exports from The “big 5”

17 WHEAT

18 Wheat Outlook  08/09 World Production: 679 MT 68 MT or 11% above last year’s. 28 MT in EU.  08/09 World consumption: 631 MT.  World Stocks: to go up by 19 MT, to 131 MT. US stocks to double, to 16 MT.  Shipments by 5 Major Exporters are forecast to increase by 1.8 MT, to 78.4 MT.  Shipments by US to fall by 10.1 MT to 24.5 MT due to greater export availabilities in other countries.

19 WORLD WHEAT PRODUCTION - MMT COUNTRYCY 2004CY 2005CY 2006CY 2007CY 2008 USA CANADA AUSTRALIA ARGENTINA FS INDIA PAKISTAN EGYPT IRAN AFHGANISTAN SYRIA IRAQ CHINA WORLD

20

21 IGC World Wheat Export

22 Price Trend?

23

24 Chicago Wheat Futures

25 CORN

26

27

28 TRANSPORTATION

29 Handymax Fleet Size

30 Bulk Carrier Unit Profile Total 6,903

31 Bulk Carrier DWT Profile 2. 5 B i l l i o n M e t r i c t o n s / Y e a r

32 Vessel Size DWT Profile Vessel Size Trend

33 Freight Deadweight Growth Fleet up 45%, in 7 years!

34 34 Handymax Fleet Age

35 Bulk Carrier Size/Age Profile Percent

36 36 Handymax Historical Earnings

37 Historical high earnings have been behind the Huge ship-building boom

38 Historical Earnings $/day

39 Global markets turmoil. effect on global economies, banks, ship mortgage, and …Psychology.

40

41 Baltic Panamax Index 2002 to date

42

43 Order book represents 70% of current fleet dwt capacity!

44 Rail Service

45 Major Rail Serving the US Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) Union Pacific (UP) CSX Corporation (CSX) Norfolk Southern (NS) Plus Two Canadian Railroads Canadian Pacific (CP) Canadian National (CN)

46 BNSF UP NS CSX CP CN North American Rail System

47 Grain Origination

48 Source: Association of American Railroads

49 Rail Shuttle Service… What it means to Grain Exporters?

50 Columbia Grain’s Newest Shuttle Facility Kasa Point, Montana 21,773 metric tons of storage Load shuttle in 10 hours Need for facility upgrade, i.e. spend more $$

51 Sits on 54.6 Hectares Loop is 1.5 miles Kasa Point

52 More cargo in one train?! Weather & Predictability issues

53 Barge Service Snapshot

54 Barge Statistics 725 MMT transported each year by barge in the U.S. 65 MMT Grains, 9% of total movement. Over 28,000 barges in the system. Over 60% of America's grain EXPORTS move by barge along the nation's inland waterways. Source: Army Corp of Engineers and the American waterways Association

55 Outlook & Trends for Pacific Northwest?

56 Delivered Cost Counts!

57 USA & PNW

58 Major U.S. Grain Load Ports 07/08 TOTAL U.S. EXPORTS: 6 year average volume 100 MMT Columbia River 24.5 MMT Duluth 4.1 MMT Houston 11.8 MMT New Orleans 67.2 MMT PNW Gulf of Mexico Great Lakes

59 Major U.S. Wheat Load Ports 07/08 TOTAL U.S. EXPORTS: 6 year average volume 25 MMT Columbia River 11.5 MMT Duluth 1.8 MMT Houston 7.2 MMT New Orleans 5.5 MMT PNW Gulf of Mexico Great Lakes

60 Columbia River Grain Output

61 U.S. Grain Movement by Mode

62 Columbia River Grain Movement by Mode

63 Challenges

64 Geography Rules

65 6 Weeks Ago EGYPT The world’s largest Wheat Importer PNW: Wheat $350 + Freight $88 = $439 USG: Wheat $290 + Freight $90 = $380 Black Sea: Wheat $280 + Freight $45 = $325 S. France: Wheat $280 + Freight $30 = $310 Australia: Wheat $242 + Freight $65 = $307 $ per ton

66 This Week EGYPT The world’s largest Wheat Importer PNW: Wheat $200 + Freight $45 = $245$194 USG: Wheat $195 + Freight $25 = $220$160 Black Sea: Wheat $200 + Freight $20 = $220$105 S. France: Wheat $220 + Freight $20 = $240$70 Australia: Wheat $190 + Freight $40 = $230$77 $ per ton

67 Is the Columbia River deep enough?

68 How big & deep is a Panamax? 60,000 Tons 40’ 65,000 Tons 43’ 72,000 Tons 47’ 78,000 Tons 50’

69 43” on the Columbia River expected in Already about 13,000MT short of full Panamax load… today.

70 $45 $35 $ per ton What will full load mean in $$? Freight Columbia River to EGYPT

71 Most Notable Trends Ship SizeFleet Size Freight ValueCommodity Value

72 Thank you!


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