1. The Economic Outlook James Marple, Senior Economist TD Economics March 20, 2013

2. This time is different

3. What’s in store for the economy?  Lots of upside potential:  Housing  Consumer spending  Investment & job creation  Weighing on growth:  Fiscal drag – tax hikes, sequestration…  Global prospects & risks

4. Global slowdown a near-term headwind

5. U.S. exporting more to the Americas, less to Europe

6. Faster economic growth is on the horizon…

7. …In Pennsylvania too

8. Private “deleveraging” giving way to public

9. Federal deficits are getting smaller…

10. …At least for now…

11. Housing headwind becoming a tailwind

12. Construction to catch up to household growth

13. Market is clearing and house prices are growing

14. Auto sales still have room to grow

15. Credit conditions are improving

16. Uncertainty keeping firms on sidelines

17. Layoffs down, but need more hiring

18. Fed will continue to prime the pumps

19. America still has a jobs deficit

20. Employment growth is key to reducing vacancies

21. Low interest rates likely here for a while

22. The bottom line Housing improvement a fillip to economic growth Tax hikes & spending cuts are a drag Global growth improving, but risks remain Fed to remain stimulative Real GDP growth of ~2.0% in 2013, ~3.0% in 2014

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