Presentation on theme: "Macro Free Responses Since 1995 GDP Economic Growth Money and Banking Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Exchange Rates Inflation Recession Theories."— Presentation transcript:
Macro Free Responses Since 1995 GDP Economic Growth Money and Banking Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Exchange Rates Inflation Recession Theories
GDP What are the two ways to figure out GDP?Expenditure and Income. Expenditure Approach: C + I + G + X N (Exports-Imports) The $ value of all final goods and services produced within the borders of a country during a given period Does not include, Intermediate or resold goods or services. Income Approach: Summing up factor payments plus economic profit. Why do they both yield the same results?TR – TC = Economic Profit. It does not include illegal or underground activity, household work, or bartered goods. Expenditure Approach is the top part of the circular flow diagram. Income Approach is the bottom part of the circular flow diagram. The impact of negative and positive externalities are not captured
Economic Growth Economic growth can be illustrated two ways.LRAS and PPC What will increase growth?Capital, human capital How do interest rates affect growth?Lower interest rates, more capital Capital stock will increase, workers become more productive both Long-run aggregate supply and the production possibilities curve will push outwards. What about corporate taxes?They should also increase investment.
Money and Banking What are the two types of reserves?Required and Excess How much does a banks loans go up by when there is a deposit? It goes up by the amount of the deposit minus the required reserves. When there is a deposit, how much does the banks reserves increase? Banks reserves increase by the full amount of the deposit. How much does the banks required reserves go up by? The deposit times the reserve ratio. How much money can be created by the banking system? Excess reserves times the multiplier. How do you find the multiplier?1 over the reserve requirement. What are two assumptions you must make for the money supply to increase by its maximum? All the excess reserves must be loaned out. All the loans are re-deposited
Inflation It is the increase in prices across the board. Not just one good. What is an acceptable inflation rate?The Fed says 2.5 %. 2.5-3% How does unanticipated inflation affect the following markets credit, labor, and product? Credit Market: Borrowers benefit by paying back loans in $ worth less. Lenders get hurt because the get back $ worth less. Labor Market: Employer’s benefit if output prices rise faster than labor costs. Employees are hurt if their real wages have decreased. Product market: If producers raise prices faster than costs, they are helped. If producers have long term contracts on prices, then they are hurt because costs could rise faster. Consumers are hurt because real income is falling. What can you do to fight inflation?Monetary of Fiscal Policy.
Recession A recession is usually categorized by falling GDP and unemployment. What is the full employment level?96 percent of the labor force. What makes up the labor force? Full and part-time workers, unemployed and actively looking. What type of unemployment makes up the 4 % during full employment? Frictional: In-between jobs. Structural: Job has been come obsolete because of technology. If unemployment is above 4 %, what type of unemployment is that? Cyclical: Caused by a drop in demand for goods and services. The business cycle. Okum’s law: For everyone 1 % of cyclical unemployment GDP falls? 2.5 % What can you do to fight a recession?Monetary and Fiscal Policy
Monetary Policy Using the tools of monetary policy to influence the economy. Three tools of monetary policy are Reserve Ratio: The percentage banks are required to hold in reserves either in their vault or with the Federal Reserve of their demand deposits. Discount Window: This is where banks can borrow money from the Fed if the can’t meet their reserve requirement. They are charged an interest rate called the discount rate. The Fed is the lender of last resort. Open Market Operations: The buying and selling of government securities in order for the Fed to maintain its target Fed Funds Rate. OMO is carried out by the NY Fed. Policy is determined by the Open Market Operation Committee. Fed Funds rate is the rate banks charge each other to borrow money. How can Monetary Policy help fight inflation?
Fighting Inflation with Monetary Policy The Fed can raise the reserve requirement. This will decrease the amount of excess reserves available for banks to lend out. The Fed can raise the Discount rate. This will make it more expensive for banks to borrow, therefore they will likely lend out less. The Fed can use Open Market Operations. They can sell bonds to banks and people. This will decrease the amount of reserves and money available to lend out and spend. Each one of these tools is aimed at lowering Aggregate demand, shifting it to the left. This will cause Price and output to fall. Because of the decrease in reserves, interest rates will rise. Higher interest rates means bond prices are lower. Foreigners will want our financial assets. Demand for the $ goes up, Supply of the $ goes down. Exchange rate (International value of $) goes up, Exports down, imports up.
Fighting a Recession with Monetary Policy The Fed can lower the reserve requirement. This will increase the amount of excess reserves available for banks to lend out. The Fed can lower the Discount rate. This will make it less expensive for banks to borrow, therefore they will likely lend out more. The Fed can use Open Market Operations. They can buy bonds from banks and people. This will increase the amount of reserves and money available to lend out and spend. Each one of these tools is aimed at increasing Aggregate demand, shifting it to the right. This will cause Price and output to fall. Because of the increase in reserves, interest rates will fall. Lower interest rates means bond prices are higher. Foreigners will not want our financial assets. Demand for the $ goes down, Supply of the $ goes up. Exchange rate (International value of $) goes down, Exports up, imports down.
Fiscal Policy Fiscal Policy use two tools to influence economic activity. Tax Cuts: Cutting or raising business and consumer taxes influence business investment in capital and it also influences disposable income. Government Spending: Government can either raise or lower government spending on purchases. How can Fiscal Policy help fight inflation? Problems with Fiscal Policy. Crowding Out: When the government runs a deficit they crowd out the private sector from the loanable funds market. The supply of bonds increases and bond prices fall causing interest rates to rise. What has greater impact government spending or tax cuts? Spending has a greater impact. Because people will save a portion of the tax cut. How much depends on the marginal propensity to save.
Fighting Inflation with Fiscal Policy When there is inflation the Fed wants to slow the economy down. They can do this in two ways. First, they can raise personal and business taxes. Consumers will have less disposable income. Consumption goes down causing AD to shift left. Business has less money to spend on capital. AD shifts left. Second, the government cuts back on its purchases. This cause firms to have less sales and they layoff workers, they stop buying. AD shifts to the left. Government can use these two tools together or separately. When AD goes down, Price and output go down, unemployment goes up (depending on the range of the AS.) You can also argue corporate tax affects AS.
Fighting Recession with Fiscal Policy When there is a recession the Fed wants to pump up the economy. They can do this in two ways. First, they can lower personal and business taxes. Consumers will have more disposable income. Consumption goes up causing AD to shift right. Business has more money to spend on capital. AD shifts right. Second, the government spend more on its purchases. This cause firms to have more sales and they hire workers, they increase buying. AD shifts to the right. Government can use these two tools together or separately. When AD goes up, Price and output go up, unemployment goes down (depending on the range of the AS.) You can also argue corporate tax affects AS.
Exchange rate Exchange rates depend on the supply and demand for the currency. The greater the demand for a country the higher the exchange rate. The higher exchange rate makes the currency appreciate. When a currency is strong (appreciates) it makes exports more expensive and imports cheaper. When imports > exports a country has a trade deficit. The country would need higher interest rates so that financial capital flows into the country. The greater the supply of the currency the lower the exchange rate. The lower the exchange rate, the currency is depreciating. A weak currency increases exports and lowers imports. This causes a trade surplus and the country must send its currency out to buy financial capital.
Theories Keynesians: Believe that fiscal policy should be used to eliminate recessions and inflation. In general they think monetary policy is unreliable or less effective than fiscal policy. Low interest rates do not necessarily induce increased business investment or consumer spending. Keynesians believe there is little or no crowding out Monetarist: Advocate a money rule with no discretionary monetary or fiscal policy. They believe fiscal policy is no good because of crowding out. They believe the money supply should increase at the growth rate of real GDP, 3-5 % a year or at an announced constant rate. Monetarist believe that there is complete crowding out.
Phillips Curve Increase in government spending cause a movement along the Phillips Curve. A drop in inflationary expectations will lead to a decrease in unemployment and inflation at every level of aggregate demand. Phillips curve shifts to the left. Increased unemployment benefits will cause more people to be unemployed This will increase the natural rate of unemployment and shift the long- run Phillips curve. Long-run Phillips curve is vertical at the Natural Rate of Unemployment.