EPUI Explains Persistent Weak Business Confidence 3 Economic Policy Uncertainty index (L) NFIB Business Optimism, (R) Components of NFIB Survey Employment plans Current job openings Capital outlay plans Inventory plans Current inventory Expectations about economy Expectations about sales Expected credit conditions Good time to expand Earnings
The Fiscal Cliff, Happy New Year! Obama era payroll tax cut has expired for everyone Increased income, capital gains, dividend taxes for the wealthy 1% Will add up to about $160 billion in additional revenue in 2013 RDPI set to fall 3.5-4.0 percent annualized 2013Q1 Debt ceiling debate still to come $110 budget sequester still unresolved Long-term entitlement spending still unresolved 4
Recent U.S. Data Is Mixed 2012Q3 real GDP 3.1%, Q4 weaker Dec. payroll employment +155,000 Unemployment rate stable at 7.8% House sales Home prices Home construction Dec. auto sales 15.4 million unit rate Dec. ISM MF Survey 50.7 percent 5 Home Sales Trending Up Existing, ths (L) New, ths (R)
2012Q4 Helped by Household Sector, Hurt by Uncertainty Consumer confidence improving Vehicle sales, Sandy Housing sector strengthening Other credit fueled purchases Labor markets Asia U.S. policy uncertainty Europe continues to melt 6 Auto Sales and Consumer Confidence Auto Sales, millions SAAR (L) Confidence Index (R)
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