1. Support for grower networks by OSU IPPC - Online IPM weather data and pest models Leonard Coop & Paul Jepson Integrated Plant Protection Center Oregon State University

2. Outline IPPC Talk - Sept 12, 2006 Title: "Support for grower networks by OSU IPPC - Online IPM weather data and pest models" –1. Brief history/what we are about as a grant- funded entity –2. Some issues and problems inherent in using weather-driven services –3. New and future IPPC products including quality assurance procedures, new models, custom degree-day maps, and insect and disease model forecasts

3. Len Coop - IPPC, Oregon State University Christopher Daly, Director, Spatial Climate Analysis Service, Oregon State University Alan Fox – Foxweather, LCC Gary Grove - Washington State University Doug Gubler – University California Paul Jepson – Director, IPPC, Oregon State University Ken Johnson – Botany and Plant Pathology, Oregon State University Walter Mahaffee – USDA-ARS William Pfender – USDA-ARS Fran Pierce - Director, Center for Precision Agricultural Systems, Washington State University Joyce Strand - University of California - Information Systems Manager and Meteorologist Carla S. Thomas -National Plant Diagnostic Network, University California W IPMC Weather Workgroup

4. Weather Networks – How representative? Dec 05 – where to put next PAWS/agweathernet stations – current area represented each station

5. Weather Networks – How representative? Dec 05 – where to put next PAWS/agweathernet stations – current area represented each station

6. Weather Networks – How to share data? Campbell-based CPCRC 6 station network – already in publicly available MesoWest database

7. Weather Network Checklist – What to look for: ✔ Weather station hardware – reliability, uptime, product lifetime, etc. - $$ ✔ Dedicated hardware maintenance – response time - $$ ✔ Type of data transfer to collection points: 1-way or 2-way; modem, cell phone, radio, satellite, internet, or? ✔ Database issues – how are the data from various stations stored and accessed? Are missing data auto-resynchronized from sensor to user: station gateway server client partially or completely? ✔ Is there some type of local delivery and support software (models?) – e.g. the owner's PC - $ ✔ Does the network involve standardized internet data collection and delivery or “Public Aggregation” (e. g. Missoula & Utah NWS Mesowest) ✔ Is there “added value” regarding model development and delivery – such as missing data estimation, intelligent spatial interpolation, integrated forecasts, and Extension service/other expert advising including validations?

8. IPPC: degree-day calculator and models integrated with 6,300+ weather stations

9. IPPC daily online degree-day maps: 48 states

10. Prototype Products in Development 2. Generic disease risk models – initially for NPDN epidemiologists

12. OSU IPPC IPM models – features IPPC - automated PRISM climate map + nearby station based max-min temperature estimation of missing data IPPC - use numerous weather networks; higher chance of nearby stations to help estimate missing data Are missing/bad data feeding the models? How will you know? Need to have option to show the data with model outputs Pest models database – working with researchers, Extension to develop, maintain, and respond to local user needs for all the models Forecasts: current – PNW weather.com 10-day, NWS zone 7-day max-min forecasts full USA IPPC/Fox weather 2007 – new research project to estimate missing data(hourly temps, RH, precip, wind speed) using Day 0 forecast data Forecast models: 2007 – 3 to 5-day site-specific forecasts for all pest models (IPM weather workgroup grant w/Fox weather, other researchers)

13. Additional Slides (not used in the 15 minute presentation) follow:

14. Online Weather Data from IPPC - history 1995-6 “bootstrap” era – initial products for Oregon converted from Pascal DOS programs into UNIX 1996-1999 PNW 3-state era, some Areawide Codling Moth funding, initial WR IPM funding 1999-2004 WR IPM grants, support OR grower networks and disease models, 5 state NW region (2003: 900+ weather stations, 45 pest models) 2004-present Focus on plant disease models, expand to national status (2006: 6300+ stations, 49 pest models), NPDN funding 2006-2009 Focus on forecasting for disease models, NRI Plant Biosecurity funding

15. Degree-day/Phenology Calc./Model Usage – PNWPEST.ORG Example 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005-Oct24 ================================================================================ Degree-Day Calculator generic 454 3219 6048 5162 7761 7599 codling moth [apple & pear] 83 1123 2019 2053 2428 1827 fire blight [apple & pear] 17 300 699 1115 778 560

16. Oregon Annual Precipitation Mean Annual Precipitation, 1961-90 Full PRISM Model Max ~ 3300 mm Simple distance interpolation Max ~ 7900 mm

17. PRISM Knowledge Base Elevation influence on climate Terrain-induced climate transitions (topographic facets, moisture index) Coastal effects Two-layer atmosphere and topographic index Orographic effectiveness of terrain Persistence of climatic patterns (climatically-aided interpolation)

18. PRISM International Climate Mapping Western Canada Pacific Basin China Taiwan Mongolia European Alps Temperature, Rainfall, Humidity Maps: all maps are state-of- the-art, and are used as the standard for evaluation of other methods

19. At a glance: current, normal, deviations Jan 1 to date

20. Now available nation-wide e.g. 50 Degree threshold – Pennsylvania Jan. 1 – June 13, 2005

21. Hood River, OR – tree fruit 1. 2 km resolution 2. 100 m resolution 3. 30 m res. - online DD mapping tool

22. Prototype Products in Development 1. DPEP (Date of Phenological Event Prediction) maps

25. Products in Development 3. Site specific forecast models GFS forecast model (up to 10 days) -> CALMET + MtnRTemps -> FL Leaf Wetness (orig. Kim et al. - Iowa State) -> numerous plant disease risk models at ca 2 KM resolution

26. Conclusions IPM decision making resides with the grower: decision aids need to be resolved to the field/farm scale Advanced climate analysis is an effective starting point for development of tools and services Development model in OR, PNW, West, has recruited large numbers of growers, and is evolving Plant disease models, supported by improved forecasting, are in development; some released WIPM Center Weather Workgroup is focusing on standards, quality control, and delivery of comprehensive regional and national services GIS-based tools offer scope for integration of other IPM decision tools relating to diagnostics, IPM options, and spatially resolved risk and risk mitigation factors