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S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S D E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y S C I E N C E F.

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Presentation on theme: "S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S D E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y S C I E N C E F."— Presentation transcript:

1 S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S D E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S B u r e a u o f R u r a l S c i e n c e s James Walcott

2 S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S Agroclimatic Characterization and Zoning Methods for Operational Applications: John Sims (operations) Greg Laughlin James Walcott (climate) (agriculture) Tim Brinkley (methods) Presented to WMO Workshop on Climate Analysis and Mapping for Agriculture. Bologna, June Tools that make climate simple for agricultural decision makers

3 S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

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6 Distribution of grain cropping in Australia

7 S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S Outline Operational uses Rainfall reliability wizard: grain adaptation Integrated toolset: productivity Growest: pasture forecasts National Monitoring system: drought policy Conclusions/Future extensions

8 S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S Operational Uses Agricultural adaptation –Crop, livestock decisions Climate risks –Fire risk, storm warning, frost warning Agricultural risks –Pest & disease outbreaks, weed incursions, plague locust Policy delivery –Natural resource management, conservation, rural policy, drought relief, quarantine

9 S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S Rainfall Reliability Wizard Laughlin et al (2003) Environmental Modelling and Software 18: Bureau of Meteorology rainfall grids: 100+ yrs 25 km sq Analysis: means percentiles between seasons within seasons event analysis Display and access:

10 S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S Probability of 50% seasonal mean

11 S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S Reliability of achieving 25 mm/month for June – September

12 S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S Distribution of available water capacity in soil profile across grain cropping zone

13 S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

14 Integrated Toolset ANU Splin (Hutchinson 1990) Interpolations using thin-plate splines Independent factors such as altitude Commercial in confidence

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16 S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S Livestock density in 2001

17 S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S Livestock density Low Medium High Low Medium High Index of primary productivity Integrated Toolset: relating primary productivity to livestock density

18 S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S RadiationTemperature Moisture Fitzpatrick and Nix (1970) – GrowEst Nix (1981) Hutchinson, Nix and McMahon (1992) Brinkley et al (2005) GrowEst: simple estimates of plant growth Major climate drivers in plant growth GI = LI x TI x MI Growth Index TI - Temperature index RI - Radiation index MI - Moisture index

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21 Analyses Mapping Regional Reports The National Monitoring System

22 S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S Conclusions Also consider flexible, pragmatic systems that: Analyse data rapidly Provide simple outputs Respond to wide range of requests Use our skills to provide advice on output Future Weather Wizard (frost, growing degree days, vernalisation) Climate change/adaptation

23 S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S … not … the simplicity this side of complexity, but … the simplicity on the other side of complexity. Oliver Wendell Holmes Oliver Wendell Holmes


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