1. The Commodities Boom in North Asia Dr Helen B Bendall University of Technology, Sydney ICHCA 2008

2. Dr Helen B Bendall 2 World GDP Growth & World Exports

3. Dr Helen B Bendall 3 World Exports Volumes & Values (USD)

4. Dr Helen B Bendall 4 Asia’s Role in World Trade % Growth in Volume 200420052006 WorldXMXM 8.0 - 6.0 - 8.0 - AsiaXMXM 15.5 14.5 11.5 8.0 13.5 8.5 ChinaXMXM 24.0 21.5 25.0 11.5 22.0 15.6 Source: UNCTAD 2007

5. Dr Helen B Bendall 5 International Seaborne Trade Mt YearTankerDry Cargo * Main Bulks Total (All Cargoes) 1970144211244482566 1980187118337963704 1990175522539684008 20002163382112885983 20062674474218287416 Source: UNCTAD 2007 * Main Bulks subset of Dry Cargo – iron ore, grain, coal, bauxite, alumina, phosphate

6. Dr Helen B Bendall 6 Major Coal Exporters 2006 Thermal, Metallurgical % World Share Source: UNCTAD 2007

7. Dr Helen B Bendall 7 Thermal Coal Imports Mt Imports200620072008 % Change 2005-6 China33.63740.18.4 Taiwan58.761633.3 Japan113.5114.5114.70.2 South Korea58.96367.47 Europe207205.7207.10.7 Other147.4155.5174.1 World Total618.2636.7656.33.1 Source: ABARE,2007

8. Dr Helen B Bendall 8 Thermal Coal Trade China Source: ABARE 2007 Mt

9. Dr Helen B Bendall 9 Thermal Coal Exports Mt Exports200620072008 % Change 2005-6 Australia111.6115.51247.4 China58.945.041-8.9 Indonesia1611781885.6 Russia7477792.6 South Africa 67.467.5680.7 Other145.3153.7156.3 Source: ABARE,2007

10. Dr Helen B Bendall 10 Metallurgical Coal Exports Mt 2005200620072008 Australia124.9124.4135.9141.0 Canada26.222.4 22.7 USA26.024.924.424.3 Russian Federation 12.116.717.516.3 World Tot.205.8207.6218.7226.6 Source; ABARE,2007

11. Dr Helen B Bendall 11 World Steel Producers 2006 Rank% World Share China133.4 Japan29.3 USA37.9 Russia45.7 South Korea53.9 Germany63.8 India73.5 Taiwan121.6 Source: MariTrade from IISI 2008

12. Dr Helen B Bendall 12 Metallurgical Coal Imports Mt 2005200620072008 E U 2751.453.558.259.7 Japan63.462.863.464.0 China7.24.74.810.1 South Korea20.620.721.821.4 Taiwan5.25.04.14.9 India19.619.320.423.0 Brazil14.714.014.715.5 World Tot.205.8207.6218.7226.6 Source: ABARE 2007

13. Dr Helen B Bendall 13 Australia’s Exports to North Asia Coal by Volume (Mt) Source: MariTrade / ABS 2008

14. Dr Helen B Bendall 14 Australian Coal Exports 2005-6 Value AUD’000 20052006% Change 2005-6 Japan9,013,3019,594,9106.5 South Korea2,532,5991,934,467-23.6 Taiwan1,657,6111,652,025-0.3 Source: DFAT 2006

15. Dr Helen B Bendall 15 World Iron Ore Exporters % World Share Source: UNCTAD 2007 Australia Brazil

16. Dr Helen B Bendall 16 Iron Ore Exports Mt 20052006*20072008 Australia239270281307 Brazil223245269310 India81999799 Canada28 2627 S Africa27263033 Sweden18192022 Source: ABARE 2007, *UNCTAD 2007,

17. Dr Helen B Bendall 17 Iron ore Imports Mt 2005200620072008 E U 27160172175182 Japan132134139141 China275326375*442 South Korea4344 46 Taiwan15 16 Source: ABARE 2007,*The Economist 2008

18. Dr Helen B Bendall 18 Australia’s Exports to North Asia Iron Ore by Volume (Tonnes) Source: MariTrade 2008

19. Dr Helen B Bendall 19 Bauxite Exporters Source: UNCTAD 2007

20. Dr Helen B Bendall 20 Bauxite - Alumina Exports Australia-North Asia in AUDm 200420052006% growth 2005-6 China150118942,23418% Japan30364731.6% DFAT 2007

21. Dr Helen B Bendall 21 Australian Aluminium Exports AUD m Source ABARE 2008

22. Dr Helen B Bendall 22 Alumina Importers/Exporters Importers Exporters

23. Dr Helen B Bendall 23 Aluminium Output 2000 - 2007 YOY, M’ tonnes annualised Source: Lehman Brothers 2008

24. Dr Helen B Bendall 24 Copper Demand 2005 - 2007 YOY, ‘000 Tonnes Source: Lehman Brothers 2008

25. Dr Helen B Bendall 25 Australia’s Exports to North Asia Copper by Volume (Mt) Source: MariTrade / ABS 2008

26. Dr Helen B Bendall 26 Stainless Steel Production and Nickel Cash 2000 - 2007 Source: Lehman Brothers,2008

27. Dr Helen B Bendall 27 Nickel/Nickel Alloys Exports Australia - North Asia in AUDm 200420052006% growth 2005-6 China2907511,37883.4% Japan53823241578.8% South Korea381404296-26.8% Taiwan249295269-8.7% Source: DFAT 2007

28. Dr Helen B Bendall 28 Australian Nickel Exports Mt Source: MariTrade

29. Dr Helen B Bendall 29 Australian Wheat Exports North Asia in AUDm 200420052006% growth 2005-6 China50426174-71.7% Japan39032137115.5% South Korea34125829514.5% Taiwan22455113.8% DFAT 2007

30. The Future Trade in Dry Bulk Commodities North Asia Up? Down?

31. Dr Helen B Bendall 31

32. Dr Helen B Bendall 32 Will commodity exporting countries, such as Australia, continue to ride on the bow wave of North Asian dry bulk carriers?

33. Dr Helen B Bendall 33 Uncertainties  World Economic Outlook  supply and demand for dry-bulk commodities  sub-prime fallout  Economic Outlook North Asia  South Korea  Japan  Economic Outlook China  inflation  “brownouts”  environmental concerns – air, water

34. Dr Helen B Bendall 34 World Largest Economies in 2050 by GDP Source: Goldman Sachs 2001 BRIC Economies Brazil Russia India China (including Japan)

35. Dr Helen B Bendall 35 Largest Regions by GDP in 2050 Source: Goldman Sachs 2001

36. Dr Helen B Bendall 36 GDP per Capita in 2050 Source: Goldman Sachs 2001

37. Dr Helen B Bendall 37 Wealthiest Countries per Capita 2015 in USD (base value 2000 USD) RankRegionCountry20052015 1G7USA$37,715$46,918 2G7Japan$39,853$46,859 3AsiaH K$28,676$42,196 4AsiaSingapore$23,772$32,117 5AsiaSouth Korea$12,982$20,487 14Latin Am.Brazil$3,620$4,702 15EuropeRussia$2,430$3,965 20AsiaChina$1,274$2.384 Source: USDA 2000

38. Dr Helen B Bendall 38 Economic Outlook – South Korea % YOY200720082009 Real GDP5.04.15.2 CPI2.53.53.0 Exports $s 12.19.38.9 Imports $s 11.99.48.9 Source: Lehman Brothers, May 2008

39. Dr Helen B Bendall 39 Economic Outlook - Japan % YOY200720082009 Real GDP2.11.71.5 CPI0.01.10.4 Exports $s 8.68.82.0 Imports $s 1.83.51.9 Source: Lehman Brothers, May 2008

40. Dr Helen B Bendall 40 Australian Trade 2006/7 AUD Billion AFR 24/4/08

41. Dr Helen B Bendall 41 Economic Outlook - China % YOY200720082009 Real GDP11.99.88.0 CPI (8.5% April 08) 4.85.52.8 Industrial Production 18.014.812.0 Exports $s 25.715.78.7 Imports $s 20.819.213.0 Source: Lehman Brothers May,2008,

42. Dr Helen B Bendall 42 China GDP % Growth Source: AFR April 2008

43. Dr Helen B Bendall 43 Economic Outlook - China % YOY200720082009 Real GDP11.99.88.0 CPI (8.5% April 08) 4.85.52.8 Industrial Production 18.014.812.0 Exports $s 25.715.78.7 Imports $s 20.819.213.0 Source: Lehman Brothers May,2008

44. Dr Helen B Bendall 44 Real GDP % YOY 200720082009 China11.99.88.0 Hong Kong6.34.56.2 Japan2.11.71.5 South Korea5.04.15.2 Taiwan5.73.95.7 Source: Lehman Brothers,2008

45. Dr Helen B Bendall 45 Largest Controlled Fleets ‘000s DWT – 1 Jan 2007 Country of Domicile # of Ships Tonnage Rank Total % of World Japan 3,330215.07 China 3,18447.19 Hong Kong 68974.60 South Korea 104183.30 Taiwan 574112.54 World Total 34,822100.00% Source: UNCTAD/LR/Fairplay 2007

46. Dr Helen B Bendall 46 Asian Market Share of World Ships Dwt millions Source: Lloyds Register,,UNCTAD,2007.

47. Dr Helen B Bendall 47 Asian Bulk Carriers (Ex Japan) 1 Jan 2007 FlagBulk Carrier GT % of Total Fleet China9,227,14739.78 North Korea160,55115.25 Hong Kong17,909,20154.79 South Korea5,845,15555.79 Taiwan1,198,65643.03 Source: UNCTAD 2007

48. Dr Helen B Bendall 48 Asian Percentage of World Fleet by Flag of Registration GT ’000s Bulk Carriers Container Ships General Cargo Oil Tankers Other Types Grand Total Total204,553110,68798,214213,74893,588720,789 Asia %25.2816.1724.6122.2714.3921.53 Source: Lloyds Register, UINCTAD,2007

49. Dr Helen B Bendall 49 Australia Outlook % saar % YOY200720082009 Real GDP3.92.52.0 Exports3.35.04.0 Imports10.74.23.5 Source: Lehman Brothers,2008

50. Dr Helen B Bendall 50 CPI % YOY 200720082009 China4.85.52.8 Hong Kong2.05.05.5 Japan0.01.20.3 South Korea2.54.03.5 Taiwan1.83.83.5 Source: Lehman Brothers,2008

51. Dr Helen B Bendall 51 Asia (ex-Japan) – Real GDP Source: Lehman Brothers 2008