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> Giuseppe Bottiglieri Rome, 8 th May 2013 All rights reserved, 2013 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May 2013.

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Presentation on theme: "> Giuseppe Bottiglieri Rome, 8 th May 2013 All rights reserved, 2013 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May 2013."— Presentation transcript:

1 > Giuseppe Bottiglieri Rome, 8 th May 2013 All rights reserved, 2013 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May 2013

2 2 What are our perceptions and expectations of the freight market?

3 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May

4 03/05/2013 4

5 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May /05/2013 5

6 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May 20136

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8 8

9 9 Source: World Economic Outlook FMI – April 2013 Average 3,25% in 2013 and 4% in 2014

10 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May Source: World Economic Outlook FMI – April 2013

11 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May Source: World Economic Outlook FMI – April 2013

12 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May Source: World Economic Outlook FMI – April 2013

13 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May Source: World Economic Outlook FMI – April 2013

14 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May Source: World Economic Outlook FMI – April 2013

15 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May Source: World Economic Outlook FMI – April 2013

16 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May Source: World Economic Outlook FMI – April 2013

17 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May Source: World Economic Outlook FMI – April 2013

18 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May Source: World Economic Outlook FMI – April 2013

19 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May Source: World Economic Outlook FMI – April 2013

20 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May Source: World Economic Outlook FMI – April 2013

21 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May Source: World Economic Outlook FMI – April 2013

22 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May Source: World Economic Outlook FMI – April 2013 In Japan, growth is projected to be 0,5% in 2013, moderately higher than in October 2012 WEO. A sizable stimulus – about 1,5% of GDP over two years – will boost growth by some 0,6% point in 2013 Growth will rise in India to 5,75% in 2013 as a result of the improved external demand and recently implemented pro-growth measures. China’s growth is set to accelerate slightly to about 8% in 2013, reflecting continued robust domestic demand in both consumption and investment and renewed external demand. Inflation will pick up only modestly to an average of 3% in 2013, In Korea, improved exports should help spur private investment and help growth rebound to 2,75%. Growth in the ASEAN-5 economies will remain strong at 6% in 2013, reflecting resilient domestic demand.

23 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May Source: World Economic Outlook FMI – April 2013

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30 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May TOTAL 1,414

31 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May

32 Demolition news: Many Chinese shipyards partially converted their premises into 1/3 shipbuilders, 1/3 repairs and 1/3 demolition. The demolition price is still remaining at high level: about USD 400 pmt lightweight. The number of vessels scrapped during 2012 hit the highest record of 1414 units. During 1 st quarter 2013 the number of ships scrapped are less but remain sensitive. Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May

33 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May Outlook for product tankers is increasingly bright Crude tankers will also see a healthier market in , but the outlook is not so optimistic. Volumes are projected to increasingly head to Asia to meet Chinese demand, but Chinese oil consumption has dipped recently due to lower growth figures. Source: Lloyd’s List Intelligence

34 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May The product tanker market will be boosted by 1.7m barrels per day of global refinery capacity to be added over the next four years. Fleet growth of 2% compared with higher trade growth of around 4% will push the product tanker market towards a long-awaited recovery next year. Refinery closures in the Atlantic Basin mean the western hemisphere will be forced to source cargoes long haul from new Asian and Middle Eastern refineries. India stands out as a major new exporter of refined oil products, led by its 1m bpd Jamnagar refinery, the largest refinery in the world. The country is focused on exports, rather than on supplying the domestic market.The Middle East is also investing in exporting more products from new refineries, and the US Gulf is boosting its exports to South America. Source: Lloyd’s List Intelligence

35 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May On the import side, Europe is set to play a key role for product tankers. Environmental regulations stipulate that fuel with a sulphur content of 0.1% has to be used by shipping in the North and Baltic seas by Gasoil, rather than fuel oil, would meet those green requirements, and Europe needs to import that gasoil. Trafigura was recently said to have secured eight medium range product tankers on three-year time charters at $15,500 per day each. Source: Lloyd’s List Intelligence

36 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May Values of secondhand medium range product tankers show a clear rising trend over the last six months amid an increasingly bright outlook for this market. The Baltic Exchange quotes five-year-old MR product tankers as costing $22.39m. This is up from $21.39m at the end of January and higher than $20.76m at the start of December last year.

37 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May The positive forecast for product tankers, however, depends on owners not placing too many vessel orders. The last time this happened, the product tanker fleet swelled 10% in “We believe the improving demand and supply balance of the product tanker market should continue to positively affect spot and period charter rates going forward”. Source: Lloyd’s List Intelligence

38 Mare Forum = 1,193 ships = 14% > 20 YRS Mare Forum = 1,543 ships = 19% > 20YRS Mare Forum 2011 – = 1,955 ships = 26% > 20YRS DRY BULK FLEET BREAKDOWN

39 DRY BULK FLEET ORDERBOOK Pendig deliveries: 1,424 Ships

40 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May 2013 = 7,615 40

41 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May 2013 = 7,615 Source: BRS 22/04/2013 SURPLUS world fleet (2,5%) = 231 SHIPS 41

42 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May

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45 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May 2013 We are on the right way towards a quick rebound of the market 45

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47 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May LLOYDS LIST

48 Giuseppe Bottiglieri - 8th May LLOYDS LIST

49 Thank You Giuseppe Bottiglieri


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