1. EUROPEAN TRAVELLERS 2010 Dr Josep-Francesc Valls Professor, Department of Marketing Management and the Centre for Tourism Management Research Assistant: Montserrat Casas 15th International Tourism and Leisure Symposium ESADE-Fira Barcelona 3rd May 2006

2. © Josep-Francesc Valls, ESADE-CEDIT, 2006 Identification of the main features of European travellers in 2010 with a view to creating suitable products for the tourist industry and ensuring they are properly segmented. The starting point is a series of forecasts, such as those made by the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC, 2005), the European Travel Commission (ETC, 2005), and others made by the ESADE Centre for Tourism Management regarding the number of holidays taken per year by Europeans. OBJECTIVES

3. © Josep-Francesc Valls, ESADE-CEDIT, 2006 The Delphi method was applied to a group of 35 European experts in two rounds, through online questionnaires. METHODOLOGY

4. © Josep-Francesc Valls, ESADE-CEDIT, 2006 INTER-ANNUAL GROWTH FORECAST FOR EUROPEAN TOURISM 2005-2015 3.2 4 4.1 4.6 2.8 3.9 1.7 2 5.8 5.7 4.1 4.8 1.9 2.8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 GNP Nominal Demand Staff costs Jobs Exported visitors Capital investment Govmt. expenses Europe World Source: WTTC, 2005

5. © Josep-Francesc Valls, ESADE-CEDIT, 2006 MORE JOURNEYS IN 2010 PresentForecast for 2010 % Long holidays1 (x 8 days)1.2 (x 8 days) Short holidays2 (x 3.5 days)2.7 (x 3.5 days) City or land breaks4.2 (x 1.5 days)6.5 (x 1.5 days) Excursions8.7 (x 1 day)10 (x 1 day) Total number of days3038.829.3% The number of holidays will increase until 2010 at well above 4% per annum, particularly for short breaks, city breaks and land breaks.

6. © Josep-Francesc Valls, ESADE-CEDIT, 2006 Internet / Interconnections 6 Shared property 3.74 New hubs 4.25 Cutting out the middle man 5.06 Rapid growth in reasons for travelling 5.10 New public segments 5.29 Low-cost 5.59 EUROPEAN SCENARIO 2010 More competitiveness Sustainability Quality

7. © Josep-Francesc Valls, ESADE-CEDIT, 2006 INTERNET The Internet sales volume will double over the next 5 years5.97 Package holidays sold over the Internet5.82 Airline websites will include hotels and other items5.82 Travel agencies will lose market share to the Internet5.50 Webs that offer a comprehensive range of items will grow faster than company websites 5.48 Package holidays sold over the Internet will become commonplace.

8. © Josep-Francesc Valls, ESADE-CEDIT, 2006 LOW-COST The “low-cost” phenomenon will spread to other tourist sectors5.38 Low-cost airlines will continue growing at present rates5.26 The volume of low-cost airline flights will outstrip that of regular and charter airlines 4.79 Low-cost airline traffic will continue its present strong growth and in 2010 will exceed the volume provided by regular and charter airlines.

9. © Josep-Francesc Valls, ESADE-CEDIT, 2006 CUTTING OUT THE MIDDLE MAN Online travel agencies5.53 General and specialised search engines5.53 Airline web or portal5.47 Booking centre4.35 Tour operators4.26 The establishment itself4.24 Other intermediaries3.70 Telephone3.70 Traditional travel agencies3.50 Online travel agencies, search engines, and airline portals lie at the core of tourist information and sales.

10. © Josep-Francesc Valls, ESADE-CEDIT, 2006 NEW CUSTOMER SEGMENTS Seniors5.82 Young people on study trips5.18 Immigrants as a new sector5.06 Immigrants travelling to their place of origin4.91 Young people on adventure trips4.76 Specialised journeys level off3.76 Singles3.35 The segment that will travel most in 2010 will be seniors, students and immigrants.

11. © Josep-Francesc Valls, ESADE-CEDIT, 2006 REASONS FOR JOURNEYS Health and body care / fitness 5.59 Culture5.41 Events 5.21 Visits to cities and other places5.17 Food and wine4.94 Nature4.91 Friendship, family and friends 4.82 Sport and adventure 4.71 Congresses, meetings, incentives4.68 Studies 4.47 Discovery 4.47 Religion, pilgrimages4.06 Socially oriented3.68 Beach holidays3.44 The most popular reasons for travelling in 2010 will be body care / fitness, culture, events and cities. Beach holidays will lose ground.

12. © Josep-Francesc Valls, ESADE-CEDIT, 2006 NEW HUBS Low-cost airports will create a new map of tourist destinations5.53 High-speed trains will be used more5.21 Low-cost airports will create holiday centres that compete with traditional tourist destinations 5.15 Coach use will not increase5.09 Cruise holidays will become more popular4.74 Tourists will use own means of transport more4.15 Low-cost airports and communication networks will create new hubs that compete with traditional holiday destinations.

13. © Josep-Francesc Valls, ESADE-CEDIT, 2006 SHARED OWNERSHIP Growth in tourism residential property will outstrip that of hotel facilities4.82 Growth in residential tourism will be at the hotel industry’s expense4.58 Growth in property purchase will outstrip rentals4.02 Growth in shared ownership will outstrip traditional purchases3.68 Growth in residential tourism will outstrip that of hotels and there will be a stronger trend towards shared ownership.

14. © Josep-Francesc Valls, ESADE-CEDIT, 2006 CONCLUSIONS 1.European journeys will increase by 4% compound per annum in the period up to 2010. 2.The biggest trends to affect European travellers will be: the Internet as a source of information and purchases; travel using low-cost airlines; consolidation of new groups of travellers; increase in new reasons for travel; cutting out the middle man; growth of new hubs in communication networks; shared ownership of tourist accommodation. 3.The most popular reasons for travelling in 2010 will be body care / fitness, culture, events, and cities. Socially-oriented tourism and beach holidays will lose ground.

15. © Josep-Francesc Valls, ESADE-CEDIT, 2006 CONCLUSIONS 4.The biggest travellers in 2010 will be seniors, students and immigrants. 5.Low-cost airlines will continue growing at their present rate to the point where they overtake regular and charter airlines; they will continue expanding in other tourist sectors. 6.Travellers will increasingly arrange their own journeys and cut out non-technological middle men. Online travel agencies, search engines and airline websites will be used much more than traditional travel agencies and other middle men.

16. © Josep-Francesc Valls, ESADE-CEDIT, 2006 CONCLUSIONS 7.Internet's importance will continue to grow as a source of information and as a purchasing channel; airline websites will sell increasingly more hotel rooms and other products; even though other websites are currently trusted more than airlines. 8.The growth in residential accommodation will outstrip that of hotels; more shared ownership as opposed to single ownership properties will be bought. 9.New holiday hubs will spring up around the new low-cost airports and other communication networks that will compete with traditional holiday centres.

17. © Josep-Francesc Valls, ESADE-CEDIT, 2006 Dr Josep-Francesc Valls Professor, Department of Marketing Management and the Centre for Tourism Management Director, 15th International Tourism Symposium josepf.valls@ESADE.edu www.esade.edu/CEDIT