1. WTO - Europe Year 2003 : Will tourism pick up again? Presentation by Luigi Cabrini, Regional Representative for Europe World Tourism Organization (WTO) 2 nd International Conference on Tourism in Bulgaria Sofia, Bulgaria – 9-11 January 2003 1

2. WTO - Europe Factors that affected tourism in 2001 and 2002: Economic slow-down and uncertainties - stocks sliding - decrease in consumer confidence - slight increase in unemployment 11th September terrorist attacks and ensuing military action Floods in Central Europe Premeditated terrorist attacks against tourists (Bali, Kenya) The Middle East conflict The Iraq crisis

3. WTO - Europe Results of International Tourism Development

4. WTO - Europe European destinations - 2002 4

5. WTO - Europe Tourism strongly dependent on economy echo of the second oil crisis / martial law in Poland / Falklands conflict / conflict Israel-Lebanon Gulf War / disintegration of Yugoslavia Asian Financial Crisis

6. WTO - Europe IMF Forecasts 2002-2003 Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook, September 2002

7. WTO - Europe Recommendations for the recovery of the tourism industry 7 Institutional measures: government coordination Rebuild consumer confidence Enhance safety and security Improve communication Better targeted products Vigorous marketing (including cooperative action) Public-private partnerships Understanding the economic impact of tourism (by markets, segments, sectors, etc.)

8. WTO - Europe General trends in demand Shorter stays and fragmentation of holidays Sensitivity to price / discounts at airlines Wait-and-see attitude Last-minute bookings cash-flow problems for tourism businesses Greater demand for customized holidays Holidays as experience: the aim is to have a more participative experience at the destination 8

9. WTO - Europe Increase in Domestic and Intra-regional Tourism Traveller behaviour models Traveller behaviour models 9 Trips within the country, to bordering countries or to countries within the same region, especially those sharing the same culture Increase in group travel among people with common characteristics or interests (church groups, social organizations) due to the added security this arrangement provides Trend towards high-motivation trips and visits to friends and relatives

10. WTO - Europe 10 Medium-term trends Reorganization and liberalization of the air transport market, the rise of low-cost airlines Increased competition More mature and experienced travellers Aging western population Shift of market power from producers to consumers (from a seller’s to a buyer’s market) Regulation and restriction of access to congested sites Importance of sustainable tourism development Increased use of new technologies

11. WTO - Europe Growth Growth

12. WTO - Europe In 2001 intraregional tourism was relatively less affected in all regions

13. WTO - Europe Promising tourism segments for Central/Eastern Europe Cultural tourism City breaks Business and conference travel (MICE) Rural tourism/Ecotourism Sport (winter sport tourism) Health tourism

14. WTO - Europe Prospects for Central and Eastern European Destinations Joining the European Union Benefits: joining most economically and socially developed nations free movement of capitals, goods, services and people joining the euro zone Factors to take into account: increased competition the need to harmonize legal frameworks in tourism (The EU package tour directive, the Bill of air passenger rights, etc.)

15. WTO - Europe Central/Eastern Europe International Tourist Arrivals and Receipts Central and Eastern Europe recorded 76,3 million international tourist arrivals in 2001, 200 thousand or 0,3% less than in 2000; receipts outpaced tourist arrivals, totally almost 30 billion euros in 2001. Arrivals (million) Receipts (euro billion)

16. WTO - Europe Tourism Strengths of Central and Eastern European Destinations Rich and varied heritage (natural and man-made tourism resources) Living folk traditions and hospitality Relatively developed tourism infrastructure Potential for varied and high quality tourism offer Proximity to major European markets Positive image Institutional support and public awareness

17. WTO - Europe Thank you for your attention Regional Representation for Europe www.world-tourism.org 17