1. Governance Innovation for Security and Development: Proposed Projects SGT Charles N. Palmares 1005 th Civil Affairs and Psychological Operations Training Company Stanford Human Sciences and Technologies Advanced Research Institute

2. Overview Introduction Logistics Capabilities Project Proposal: Analyses Project Proposal: Tools and Techniques Project Proposal: Workshops Questions

3. Introduction

4. Through a series of multistakeholder analyses, workshops, and technological development projects, Sergeant Palmares will produce reports with recommendations for an improved strategic framework for Support to Civil Administration and other Civil Affairs (CA) and Military Information Support Operations (MISO) functions.

5. Logistics

6. Time Frame: 1-2 years Location: Stanford University and Naval Postgraduate School OIC/NCOIC: TBD (dependent on ADOS orders) Funding: TBD (dependent on ADOS orders) Current Partners: Stanford University and Naval Postgraduate School Potential Partners: Palantir and Quid

7. Capabilities Sergeant Charles N. Palmares 2006: BA Political Science from University of California, Davis focus on governance and development in the Philippines 2010: Enlisted in US Army as Civil Affairs Specialist 2012: Awarded US Army Commendation Medal for supporting JSTOF-P in conducting SMEE on governance and rule of law 2012: Assistant Training Sergeant to 1005 th CA/PO TNG Co 2013: Researcher Assistant/Project Coordinator at Stanford University

8. Project Proposal: Analyses

9. Behavioral Analysis in Counterinsurgency Behavioral analysis of authoritarian regimes and violent non-state actors (e.g. warlords, militias, insurgencies, and terrorist orgs) vis-à- vis COIN Hypothesis: predicts a significant and positive relationship between a modified model of community-driven development and the reduction in conflict and promotion in development Methodology: test various models of diplomacy, governance, and rule of law; controlled field experiments and computer simulation

10. Project Proposal: Analyses Institutional Drivers of Human Development Analysis of political institutional drivers—namely, capacity, autonomy, and incentive—and their potential relationship with human development (e.g. income, education, and health) Hypothesis: predicts drivers will have a significant and positive relationship with human development; individually, the drivers will no relationship Methodology: cross-provincial and regression analysis, Philippines 1997-2009

11. Tools and Techniques

12. Strategic Communication Develop framework to utilize “persuasive technologies” to engage key leaders and social movements to facilitate diplomatic relations in non- permissive environments Project will review literature and test engagement effectiveness in local cities and possibly OEF operations

13. Tools and Techniques Civil Information Management Develop framework for geo-spatial analysis which will quantitatively assess and forecast the effectiveness of Support to Civil Administration in conflict mitigation and prevention Application of Bayesian statistics to a previously developed equation on the size and frequency of attacks in conflict Project will make recommendations to hardware and software to improve visualization and functionality Potential Partners: Quid and Palantir

14. Workshops

15. Direction of State Formation Top-down and bottom-up state formation Development as a Product of Political and Economic Institutions Development through reform in governance and markets Authoritarian Regimes and Violent Non-State Actors as Community Stakeholders Exclusive and inclusive governance processes Participatory and deliberate democratic processes Emphasis on authoritarian regimes (e.g. Syria and China) and VNSAs (e.g. warlords, militias, insurgencies, and terrorist organizations)

16. Workshops Rule of Law Through Formal and Informal Judicial Institutions Merits and challenges of rule of law through formal judicial institutions, informal and customary laws, and religious codes Second and third order effects with respect to human rights and conflict resolution Constitutional Design in Post-Conflict States Merits and challenges of “accommodation” and “integration” as approaches in constitutional design Second and third order effects on security and development

17. Questions

18. Overview Introduction Logistics Capabilities Project Proposal: Analyses Project Proposal: Tools and Techniques Project Proposal: Workshops Questions

19. Governance Innovation for Security and Development: Proposed Projects SGT Charles N. Palmares 1005 th Civil Affairs and Psychological Operations Training Company Stanford Human Sciences and Technologies Advanced Research Institute