1. Integrated Science and Systems Approaches in Support of Global Transitions Prof Dr Pavel Kabat IIASA Director/CEO

2. MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES

3. FOOD

4. 925 million people were undernourished in 2010 (FAO) By 2030, the world’s population will have increased by one billion (IIASA) Agriculture accounts for 70% of freshwater withdrawals (UN Water)

5. MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES WATER

6. 884 million people have inadequate access to safe freshwater (WHO & UNICEF) Water use has been growing at more than twice the rate of population increase in the last century (FAO & UN-Water) Hydropower supplies about 20% of the world’s electricity (ICOLD)

7. MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES ENERGY

8. 2.5 billion people are without access to modern energy (IIASA/GEA) World primary energy demand expected to increase by 36% between 2008 & 2035 (IEA) Energy production and consumption contributes over 80% of global GHG emissions (IIASA)

9. MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES CLIMATE CHANGE

10. Eleven of the last twelve years (1995-2006) rank among the twelve warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850). (IPCC) Average temperatures predicted to increase by 1.1 to 6.4°C by 2100 (IPCC) 70 million Africans could suffer from devastating floods as a result of climate change (IPCC)

11. MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES POVERTY & EQUITY

12. Over 24,000 children die each day due to poverty (UNICEF) 80% of humanity lives on less than $10 a day (World Bank) “Hunger is a cause of poverty, not just a consequence of it.” (FAO)

13. INEXTRICABLY LINKED Energy & Climate Change Poverty & Equity Food & Water

14. IIASA’S APPROACH

15. RESEARCHING GLOBAL CHALLENGES Integrated Interdisciplinary International Independent Solution-oriented Long term Trade offs } = Systems Analysis

16. ADVANCED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS: PAST SUCCESSES Dynamic Systems Multi-criteria decision analysis Adaptive dynamics theory Game theory Agent-based modeling Stochastic optimization NEW RESEARCH Advances in Modeling Dynamic Systems Extreme events, Systemic Risks and Robust Solutions Integrated Modeling and Decision Support Advanced Systems Analysis Forum

17. IIASA helps to put the puzzle together

18. NOBEL PRIZE WINNERS Professor Tjalling Koopmans and Professor Leonid Kantorovich Nobel Prize in Economics (1975)

19. NOBEL PRIZE WINNERS Professor Paul Crutzen Nobel Prize for Chemistry (1995)

20. NOBEL PRIZE WINNERS Professor Thomas C. Schelling Nobel Prize for Economics (2005)

21. NOBEL PRIZE WINNERS Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Nobel Peace Prize (2007)

22. YOUNG SCIENTISTS SUMMER PROGRAM

23. INTERDISCIPLINARY

24. INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS IIASA collaborates with almost 300 institutions from nearly 40 countries

25. IIASA’S MEMBER COUNTRIES

26. HOME OF IIASA SINCE 1972

27. RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS

28. RESEARCH STRATEGY

29. INTEGRATION: AREAS & PROGRAMS Research ProgramsEnergy & Climate Change Food & Water Poverty & Equity Problem-oriented Programs Energy Mitigation of Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases Ecosystems Services and Management Water Evolution and Ecology Risk, Policy & Vulnerability Drivers of Global Transformations World Population Transitions to New Technologies Policy and Systems Analysis Advanced Systems Analysis Policy & Governance

30. ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE

31. RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS Energy and Climate Change Highly Published

32. Synergies of Multiple Energy Objectives Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point Only ClimateOnly Pollution Only Energy Security All Three Objectives Integrated Climate-Pollution- Security Policies “Single minded” approaches for multiple challenges

33. Source: Shindell et al., Science (2012) 335 no. 6065; p. 183-189 Reference scenario IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 CO 2 measures IEA 450 ppm scenario 2009 Near-term measures IIASA set of 16 measures for CH 4 and black carbon CO 2 + Near-term measures GAINS identified 16 key air quality measures that, together with CO 2 mitigation, increase chances to stay below the 2º target Global temperature 1900-2070 These 16 measures are ‒ win (for air quality), ‒ win (for near-term climate change) ‒ win (for economic development). http://gains.iiasa.ac.at

34. Carbon payments for forest conservation would dramatically reduce species extinctions Changes in forest cover over the twenty-first century, within presumed REDD-eligible regions Between 10 and 25% of 4,514 forest-dependent mammal and amphibian species would become extinct

35. World – Historic Primary Energy Transitions (changeover time Δt: 80-130 years) Begin of energy policy Focus: Δt’s >2000 yrs Source: GEA KM24, 2012 Δt -130 yrs Δt -80 yrs Δt +90 yrs Δt +130 yrs

36. The Global Energy Assessment (GEA)

37. ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE: BUILDING ON PAST SUCCESSES 197619811994 2000 RAINS helps cut sulfur dioxide 2010 MESSAGE has helped over 80 countries with energy planning

38. 18501900195020002050 EJ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Microchip Commercial aviation Television Vacuum tube Gasoline engine Electric motor Steam engine Nuclear energy Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas Source: GEA Global Primary Energy Efficiency

39. 18501900195020002050 EJ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Microchip Commercial aviation Television Vacuum tube Gasoline engine Electric motor Steam engine Nuclear energy Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas Source: GEA Global Primary Energy Efficiency

40. FOOD & WATER

41. RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS Food and Water Models, Data & Scenarios

42. Ratio of Actual (year 2000) to Potential (GAEZ high input level) Cereal Output

43. New web tool to improve accuracy of global land cover maps www.geo-wiki.org

44. A New Explanation of Biodiversity

45. World Water Scenarios

46. SCIENTIFIC OUTPUT 2010, 2011, 2012 (to June) 201020112012 Peer-reviewed journal articles according to SCOPUS 14415690 Citations of IIASA publications according to SCOPUS 409052052308

47. PUBLICATIONS & CITATIONS

48. H-INDEX 72 This h-index measures the productivity and impact of the 1858 journal articles by IIASA authors in the SCOPUS database of peer-reviewed literature. Of these journal articles, 72 articles have been cited more than 72 times.

49. RESEARCH INTO POLICY

52. GAINS policy applications Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution 1994Second Sulphur Protocol 1999 Gothenburg Multi-pollutant/multi-effect Protocol 2012Revision of the Gothenburg Protocol European Union 1999National Emission Ceilings Directive 2004Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution 2010Energy & Climate package, etc. 2013Revision of the Thematic Strategy Further analyses for UNFCCC, Arctic Council, UNEP, Chinese government

53. GEA LAUNCH AT RIO+20

54. IIASA AS THE EXPERT ADVISOR IIASA researchers take part in 60 advisory boards and steering committees, including: –UN Secretary General Technical Group on Sustainable Energy for All –Advisory Council of the German Government on Global Change (WBGU) –Scientific Steering Group of the UNEP Black Carbon Assessment –UN World Water Scenarios –UN Food and Agriculture Organization Land and Water Division

55. GROWING INTEREST IN IIASA - PRESIDENTS H.E. DR. HEINZ FISCHERH.E. DR. VÁCLAV KLAUS

56. GROWING INTEREST IN IIASA - MINISTERS H.E. DR. KARLHEINZ TÖCHTERLE H.E. DR. GUSTI MUHAMMAD HATTA

57. GROWING INTEREST IN IIASA - AMBASSADORS H.E. Ambassador Jingye ChengH.E. Ambassador Shigeo Iwatani H.E. Ambassador Ana Martinho H.E. Ambassador I Gusti Agung Wesaka Puja

58. ..and welcome soon in IIASA...!

60. Thank you For further information about IIASA: www.iiasa.ac.atwww.iiasa.ac.at or inf@iiasa.ac.atinf@iiasa.ac.at