1. The Economics of Marine Renewable Energy Peter McGregor Fraser of Allander Institute, Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde Second Forum on Economics of Marine Renewable Energy HMRC, UCC,Cork, 13 th June 2011

2. Our research Macroeconomic impact analysis –Contributing to our understanding of the relationship between developments in the marine industry and the wider economy Calculating the costs and benefits of marine energy provision –Identifying the ‘cost competitiveness’ of marine energy –Calculating the cost & benefits of marine energy to society Portfolio theory applications for marine energy –What contributions can wave and tidal energy make to the broader portfolio of electricity generation in the UK?

3. I. Macroeconomic Impact Analysis of Developments in the Marine Energy Industry

4. I. Macroeconomic impact analysis Marine energy is attracting significant investment in the UK (and worldwide) - Increasing number of commercial installations now operating/due to be operationalised in UK waters Associated domestic expenditures could provide an important demand stimulus for the local, regional and national economies: –R&D, manufacturing, installation, O&M UK has a ‘first mover’ advantage in the world tidal energy industry. –Potential for the development of an export market for UK tidal devices and technologies?

5. Estimating the economic impact of expenditures on tidal energy installations Many uncertainties involved in estimating economic (esp economy-wide) benefits –Unknowns: cost of devices; deployment timepath; subsidies But important for appropriate policy-making –Important as national and regional governments look to justify assistance for renewable energy projects We estimate the UK economy-wide benefit from a demand stimulus to the tidal energy industry –25-sector CGE model of the UK, UKENVI –Simulate expenditure over 2008-2025 across sectors –Incorporate estimates of both domestic and export demand

6. CGE models Initially tightly based on Walrasian GE theory: complete specification of demand, supply and equilibrium –But now often accommodate market imperfections Widely employed to analyse energy-economy-environment issues –Link to micro theory – optimising households and firms –Multisectoral – so capture the wide variation in sectoral impacts –System-wide: accommodate economic interdependencies –Can explore a huge number of actual and hypothetical policy instruments/packages and other ‘disturbances’

7. Results: GDP We find that the demand stimulus could potentially deliver a significant UK economic benefit… …but the increase in GDP relative to base falls short of the annual aggregate stimulus

8. Results: employment

9. Results: sectoral employment

10. II. The Costs and Benefits of Wave and Tidal Energy Provision

11. (i) The levelised cost of wave and tidal energy The present value of the total cost of building & operating an energy plant over its economic life Conventional approach to comparing the cost of energy technologies; widely used in discussions of energy policy Include ‘private’ costs, i.e. costs to the developer (construction, fuel, O&M, decommissioning) Calculations exclude revenues; social costs and benefits; system factors

12. Point estimates of levelised costs of electricity

13. The impact of policy support mechanisms on cost competitiveness In the UK, “banded” ROCs to provide technology-differentiated support. -Renewables Obligation Certificates (ROCs) – intended to act as a subsidy to renewables -Onshore wind receives 1 ROC/MWh; wave, tidal, offshore wind receive 2 Rocs/MWh -In Scotland, proposed additional ROCs proposed for wave (to 5 Rocs in total) and tidal (3 ROCs in total) We include these in levelised cost calculations as negative private costs

14. Levelised costs with ‘banded’ ROCs

15. (ii) The social costs and benefits of wave and tidal energy provision Social optimality drives public policy - government is concerned with social costs and benefits (not just levelised costs) Different technologies have different ‘externalities’ attached to them (the social cost of carbon emissions; visual disamenity) Cost benefit analysis – measure whether the benefits of the technology exceeds the costs, from the viewpoint of society Use WTP & WTA theory: Are those who would gain from the project willing to pay more, in aggregate, than those who would be worse off than the project?

16. CBA in practice... Assume marine energy project of 50MW Output displaces either gas or coal or onshore wind energy (i.e. gas/coal/onshore wind counterfactuals) 20 year lifetime, after 2 year construction phase (22 year project lifetime) Future costs and benefits discounted at HM Treasury discount rate for project (3.5%) in central case For net benefit to society, “disamenity” values matter

17. Provisional results (1)

18. III. Portfolio Theory Applications to Wave and Tidal Energy

19. Analysis of alternative electricity portfolios Use of standalone measures of levelised costs of technologies can be misleading -Ignores financial risk -Can understate the value of renewables projects relative to fossil alternatives Each generating technology is one component within a wider electricity portfolio What contribution can each technology make to the portfolio? Compare technologies not on basis of standalone levelised cost, but on cost contribution relative to risk contribution to a portfolio of generating technologies - Where risk is a measure of cost variability “Portfolio effect”: (typically) renewable technologies can help to decrease portfolio risk for a given level of portfolio cost - Largely due to their zero correlation with fuel prices

20. Sensitivity: greater marine share

21. www.strath.ac.uk/fraser www.supergen-marine.org.uk