1. Dr. Godfried Williams1 Project Management – Topic 6 Lecture Content Planning Tools/Techniques Optimization Techniques Resource Planning & Allocation Linear Programming

2. Dr. Godfried Williams2 Planning Tools Tools/Techniques List of activities Diaries Bar charts Gantt charts Networking PERT (Programme Evaluation Review Technique) CPM (Critical Path Method) Optimization & Resource Allocation

3. Dr. Godfried Williams3 Overview of Project Management Resources that a planning engineer has to co-ordinate. People/Skill/Manpower money Materials/Logistics Machines ) eg. Computers time

4. Dr. Godfried Williams4 Steps to achieve project objective. establish the objective/strategy define the scope of work/activities arrange the activities into a plan estimate the cost, time and resources(CTR) for each activity analyze the network optimize the network to form a base plan monitor progress against the plan measure variances and forecast/trends re-plan against objectives

5. Dr. Godfried Williams5 THE OBJECTIVE To exploit the reserves of block x and y at an acceptable profitability to the company. Optimise or maximise resources x and y to achieve objective z. (Linear Programming technique to allocate resources)

6. Dr. Godfried Williams6 Scope of work Translate the objectives into the scope of work. Feasibility stage Analysis stage Conceptual design stage Detailed design Construction or Implementation(coding) conversion Changeover Production (going online or live)

7. Dr. Godfried Williams7 Planning the project Create a list of high level management activities. Convert high level activities to low level tactical & operational activities. Construct the network by identifying ES,EF,LS,LF.

8. Dr. Godfried Williams8 PERT (Programme Evaluation Review Technique) Addresses Uncertainty in the duration of the project using 3 time estimates Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic (These estimates are used in calculating the “expected time” of the project)

9. Dr. Godfried Williams9 3 Time Estimates Optimistic Time The minimum time, a, an activity will take. Most likely time The most likely time, m, is the normal time to complete the Job. Pessimistic time The pessimistic time, b, is the maximum time an activity could take

10. Dr. Godfried Williams10 How to derive the time estimates ? The time estimates are obtained from the most knowledgeable experts about difficulties likely to be encountered and the variability in time during the project Expert Estimators or those who will manage the project

11. Dr. Godfried Williams11 Time Estimates based on Beta Distribution Time estimates related in the form of a Beta Distribution because it is unimodal (finite end points and not necessarily symmetrical). A property that is desirable for a distribution of activity times

12. Dr. Godfried Williams12 Calculating the “Expected Time” Based on this distribution, the mean or expected time, t e, and the variance, V, of each activity are calculated with time estimates a, m, b using the formulas: t e = a + 4m + b 6 V = b – a 2 6 The variance, V is a measure of variability in the activity completion time

13. Dr. Godfried Williams13 Example – Figure 1 (See calculation on slide 14) 035 Start of Activity Most likely, m 13 Optimistic, a Average, t e Prob. Of t Activity duration time t (days) Pessimistic b 6

14. Dr. Godfried Williams14 Calculation for Figure 1 t e = 3 + 4(5) + 13 = 6 days 6 V = 13 – 3 2 = (1.67 days) 2 = 2.78 6 The larger V, the less reliable t e. and the higher the likelihood that the activity will be completed much earlier or later than t e,. In a standard project estimates a and b are close to each other, V is small and t e is more reliable.

15. Dr. Godfried Williams15 Expected Duration of Project T e =  t e CP Where t e are expected times of the activities on the critical path

16. Dr. Godfried Williams16 Variance in the project duration V P =  V CP Variance of project duration distribution is calculated as the sum of the variances of the activity durations along the CP

17. Dr. Godfried Williams17 Guidelines to forming a network. Start time Earliest start time Latest start time Finish time Earliest finish time Latest finish time Float Total Float = LS - ES or LF - EF Free Float = float on the critical path Activity Dummy activity Events as Nodes - Milestones

18. Dr. Godfried Williams18 Estimating Rules to be observed estimating time. Duration should be estimated after the logic has been defined. Duration should be based on scope of work and resources required. Time estimate is based on assumptions. Very few estimates are 100% certain or unalterable.

19. Dr. Godfried Williams19 Time Analysis Activity Number Description Duration(weeks) Earliest Start Earliest Finish(ES + Duration - 1) Latest Start Latest Finish Float Total Float Free Float Critical Path & Activities

20. Dr. Godfried Williams20 Determining Critical Path & Activities Rule 1 - The early start (ES) time for a particular activity is the same as the late start(LS) time. Rule 2 - The early finish (EF) time for a particular activity is the same as the late finish (LF) time. Rule 3 - The ES or LS added to the duration of the activity results in the EF or LF.

21. Dr. Godfried Williams21 Resource allocation & Scheduling(optimization) Allocating the right resource to the right activity. eg money time labour equipment materials Logistics (support)

22. Dr. Godfried Williams22 PRINCE Structured Project Management Method Programme plan Project plan Stage plan Team plan PRINCE Plans Exception plan

23. Dr. Godfried Williams23 PRINCE Project Management Method (Contents & stage plans) Product breakdown structure Product flow diagram Activity network Financial budget Resource requirements Risk assessment Quality plan Gantt charts Product descriptions for major products

24. Dr. Godfried Williams24 Example Network diagrams