1. UNIT TWO: POPULATION

2. Population Intro Why important to study? Why important to study? More people on earth than at any other time in history (6.5 bill)More people on earth than at any other time in history (6.5 bill) World’s pop increased faster in second half of 20 th C than ever beforeWorld’s pop increased faster in second half of 20 th C than ever before Almost all global pop growth is occurring in LDCs…poorest countries growing fastest…in some cases leads to famine and human sufferingAlmost all global pop growth is occurring in LDCs…poorest countries growing fastest…in some cases leads to famine and human suffering People are living longer – past 50 yrs global life expectancy has increased by 20 yrsPeople are living longer – past 50 yrs global life expectancy has increased by 20 yrs

3. DEMOGRAPHY Demography: study of human pop Demography: study of human pop Most demographers agree world pop growth is slowing Most demographers agree world pop growth is slowing Project pop will plateau at @ 12 bill some time in 21 st C Project pop will plateau at @ 12 bill some time in 21 st C Historically pop growth has been steady but certain events have checked it…..disease has been and continues to be biggest threat Historically pop growth has been steady but certain events have checked it…..disease has been and continues to be biggest threat

5. 2.1 Population Concentrations Ecumene: portion of earth’s surface occupied by permanent human settlement Ecumene: portion of earth’s surface occupied by permanent human settlement ¾ world pop live on 5% of earth’s surface….Why?¾ world pop live on 5% of earth’s surface….Why? 2/3 of world pop lives in 4 regions 2/3 of world pop lives in 4 regions 1.) EAST ASIA (E. China, Japan, Taiwan, Koreas1.) EAST ASIA (E. China, Japan, Taiwan, Koreas China has 20 large urban areas, but 2/3 pop is rural China has 20 large urban areas, but 2/3 pop is rural China = world #1 China = world #1 ¾ Japan and Korea = urban ¾ Japan and Korea = urban

6. 4 Populous Regions - contd 2.) SOUTH ASIA (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka)2.) SOUTH ASIA (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka) India = world #2 India = world #2 ¾ rural ¾ rural 3.) EUROPE – E and W…mostly urban3.) EUROPE – E and W…mostly urban 4.) SE Asia (islands of Java, Sumatra, Borneo, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand)4.) SE Asia (islands of Java, Sumatra, Borneo, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand) Indonesia = world #4 Indonesia = world #4 Mostly rural Mostly rural

7. Top 10 Populous Nations 1. China 6. Pakistan 1. China 6. Pakistan 2. India 7. Russia 2. India 7. Russia 3. U.S.A. 8. Bangladesh 3. U.S.A. 8. Bangladesh 4. Indonesia 9. Nigeria 4. Indonesia 9. Nigeria 5. Brazil 10. Japan 5. Brazil 10. Japan China and India expected to flip flopChina and India expected to flip flop U.S. will stay #3 b/c of immigrationU.S. will stay #3 b/c of immigration LDCs taking top spots from MDCsLDCs taking top spots from MDCs

8. Population Density Arithmetic Density: total # of people divided by total area of land Arithmetic Density: total # of people divided by total area of land Can be misleading b/c is an averageCan be misleading b/c is an average US = 78/sq mile, but Manhattan is 67,000/sq mile and Loving, TX.1/sq mileUS = 78/sq mile, but Manhattan is 67,000/sq mile and Loving, TX.1/sq mile Highest = Bangladesh, Japan, NetherlandsHighest = Bangladesh, Japan, Netherlands Remember high pop (China) not necessarily high pop densityRemember high pop (China) not necessarily high pop density

9. Pop Density cont’d Physiological Density: ratio of people to a given unit of cultivable/arable land (suited for agriculture) Physiological Density: ratio of people to a given unit of cultivable/arable land (suited for agriculture) i.e. can you feed your population? i.e. can you feed your population? Can be high b/c of high pop density or poor landCan be high b/c of high pop density or poor land Ex: US 404/sq mile of arable landEx: US 404/sq mile of arable land Egypt 9,073/sq mile of arable land Egypt 9,073/sq mile of arable land

11. 2.2 POPULATION GROWTH Rule of Thumb…. Rule of Thumb…. Pop increases rapidly where many more born than diePop increases rapidly where many more born than die Slowly where births barely exceed deathsSlowly where births barely exceed deaths Decreases where deaths outnumber birthsDecreases where deaths outnumber births Increases when people move in and decreases when people move outIncreases when people move in and decreases when people move out

12. Pop Change…measured 3 ways 1. Crude Birth Rate CBR: total # of births for every 1,000 alive 1. Crude Birth Rate CBR: total # of births for every 1,000 alive 2. Total Fertility Rate TFR: average # of children a woman will have during child bearing yrs. Affected by: culture, religion, lifestyle, is child econ asset or drain, access to birth control, mother’s educ and career 2. Total Fertility Rate TFR: average # of children a woman will have during child bearing yrs. Affected by: culture, religion, lifestyle, is child econ asset or drain, access to birth control, mother’s educ and career

13. Pop Change – cont’d. 3. Natural Increase Rate NIR: 3. Natural Increase Rate NIR: NIR = CBR – CDRNIR = CBR – CDR Calculates % by which pop grows each yr.Calculates % by which pop grows each yr. Ex: CBR = 20, CDR = 5, NIR = 1.5%Ex: CBR = 20, CDR = 5, NIR = 1.5% Excludes migration – only natural increaseExcludes migration – only natural increase A negative NIR means pop decreasingA negative NIR means pop decreasing World NIR peaked in 1963 at 2.2%World NIR peaked in 1963 at 2.2% World NIR has declined in last 20 yrs.World NIR has declined in last 20 yrs.

14. What determines a nation’s NIR? Factors to consider Econ development Econ development Education Education Gender Empowerment – status and power to women Gender Empowerment – status and power to women Health Care Health Care Culture (i.e. Catholics or Mormons) Culture (i.e. Catholics or Mormons) Public Policy (ex: China one child) Public Policy (ex: China one child)

15. Factors determining a nation’s NIR – cont’d. Conclusions….countries w/ low econ development, low educ, low gender empowerment, but w/ lower infant mortality rates b/c of improved health care, cultural traditions favoring fertility, and no public policy limiting pop growth..have HIGHEST rates Conclusions….countries w/ low econ development, low educ, low gender empowerment, but w/ lower infant mortality rates b/c of improved health care, cultural traditions favoring fertility, and no public policy limiting pop growth..have HIGHEST rates

16. Where are these countries? LDCs: sub Sahara Africa, parts of Middle East, parts of L. America LDCs: sub Sahara Africa, parts of Middle East, parts of L. America In MDCs pop growth is not natural but due to immigration In MDCs pop growth is not natural but due to immigration Irony – fastest growing places are least equip to deal w/ the growth Irony – fastest growing places are least equip to deal w/ the growth

17. Doubling Time Doubling Time: # of yrs needed for a pop to double Doubling Time: # of yrs needed for a pop to double Formula 70/NIR…ex: NIR is 2.6 % DT is 70/2.6 = 27 yearsFormula 70/NIR…ex: NIR is 2.6 % DT is 70/2.6 = 27 years Pop growth is compounded/exponential (if rate stays steady at 3% you’ll add more raw numbers each yr b/c base gets bigger)Pop growth is compounded/exponential (if rate stays steady at 3% you’ll add more raw numbers each yr b/c base gets bigger) At 3% rate, DT is less than 25 yrs. Taking place in SS Africa, parts of ME, and parts of Central AmericaAt 3% rate, DT is less than 25 yrs. Taking place in SS Africa, parts of ME, and parts of Central America

18. MORTALITY CDR CDR Infant Mortality Rate: annual # of deaths of infants under 1 yr compared w/ total # of births Infant Mortality Rate: annual # of deaths of infants under 1 yr compared w/ total # of births In some parts of SS Africa is 10%In some parts of SS Africa is 10% Life Expectancy: # or yrs a newborn can expect to live..75 in most MDCs, late 30s in some parts of Africa Life Expectancy: # or yrs a newborn can expect to live..75 in most MDCs, late 30s in some parts of Africa

19. Population Growth Curves S Curve – historical growth S Curve – historical growth J Curve – exponential growth (fixed percentage) J Curve – exponential growth (fixed percentage)

20. Demographic Momentum The tendency for pop growth to continue despite strict family planning b/c of young pop in child bearing yrs The tendency for pop growth to continue despite strict family planning b/c of young pop in child bearing yrs Asia and LA 33% of pop under 15Asia and LA 33% of pop under 15 Africa 40% of pop under 15Africa 40% of pop under 15 Ex: In 2002 both UK and S. Korea had fertility rate of 1.6. But projections for 2025, older UK will decline by 2 mill and youthful SK will add 2 mill.Ex: In 2002 both UK and S. Korea had fertility rate of 1.6. But projections for 2025, older UK will decline by 2 mill and youthful SK will add 2 mill.

22. 2.3 Demographic Transition Model 4 stage model shows similar process of pop change in all societies over time 4 stage model shows similar process of pop change in all societies over time Every country is at some stage Every country is at some stage The model is irreversible…you do not go back The model is irreversible…you do not go back

23. STAGE ONE: LOW GROWTH Very high CBR and CDR cancel each other out Very high CBR and CDR cancel each other out Almost no long term natural increase Almost no long term natural increase Most of human history spent in stage one Most of human history spent in stage one No country is here today No country is here today

24. STAGE TWO: HIGH GROWTH Rapidly declining CDR but CBR remains high and = very high NIR Rapidly declining CDR but CBR remains high and = very high NIR @ 1750 – late 1800s nations in Ind Rev (Eur and N. America) moved into stage 2. Improved agric and health care dropped CDR.@ 1750 – late 1800s nations in Ind Rev (Eur and N. America) moved into stage 2. Improved agric and health care dropped CDR. First time in world history to have significant growthFirst time in world history to have significant growth LDCs entered stage 2 @1950 when MDCs diffuse improved medical tech (vaccines) to LDCs.LDCs entered stage 2 @1950 when MDCs diffuse improved medical tech (vaccines) to LDCs. Most of Africa in stage 2 todayMost of Africa in stage 2 today

25. STAGE THREE: MODERATE GROWTH CBR rapidly declines and CDR continues to decline slowly. NIR begins to moderate CBR rapidly declines and CDR continues to decline slowly. NIR begins to moderate CBR drops b/c of social customs – access to birth control, infant mortality rate drops, women in work force, kids become econ drain CBR drops b/c of social customs – access to birth control, infant mortality rate drops, women in work force, kids become econ drain Eur and NA enter - first half of 20 th C Eur and NA enter - first half of 20 th C Asia and parts of LA moved here in recent yrs Asia and parts of LA moved here in recent yrs

26. STAGE FOUR: LOW GROWTH Very low CBR and CDR produce almost no long-term natural increase and possibly a decrease Very low CBR and CDR produce almost no long-term natural increase and possibly a decrease Zero pop growth: CBR and CDR = Zero pop growth: CBR and CDR = TFR of 2.1 produces zero growthTFR of 2.1 produces zero growth Most Euro countries in stage 4 today Most Euro countries in stage 4 today Countries w/ negative NIR…Russia and Japan (shrinking) Countries w/ negative NIR…Russia and Japan (shrinking)

27. Possible Stage Five? In future if higher CDR than CBR you’ll have irreversible pop decline. In future if higher CDR than CBR you’ll have irreversible pop decline. If a country stays in stage 5 without migration it will eventually cease to exist If a country stays in stage 5 without migration it will eventually cease to exist

28. Generalities of the Model No one in stage 1; only a few have reached stage 4 No one in stage 1; only a few have reached stage 4 Model has 2 big breaks w/ the past Model has 2 big breaks w/ the past First break: sudden drop in death rate (stage 2) from technology and has taken place everywhereFirst break: sudden drop in death rate (stage 2) from technology and has taken place everywhere Second break: sudden drop in birth rate (stage 3) comes from changing social customs and has not taken place everywhereSecond break: sudden drop in birth rate (stage 3) comes from changing social customs and has not taken place everywhere

30. 2.4 Population Structure and Composition Population pyramids…show age and gender groups. How do MDC’s and LDC’s differ? Population pyramids…show age and gender groups. How do MDC’s and LDC’s differ? 1.) Sex Ratio: # of males per 100 females. In general slightly more males born, but women outlive men1.) Sex Ratio: # of males per 100 females. In general slightly more males born, but women outlive men Eur and NA 95 males: 100 females Eur and NA 95 males: 100 females World wide 102 males: 100 females World wide 102 males: 100 females

31. Pop Structure and Composition – cont’d. 2.) Age Distribution 2.) Age Distribution Dependency Ratio: # of people too old or young to work, compared to # of people in productive yrs.Dependency Ratio: # of people too old or young to work, compared to # of people in productive yrs. % of pop under 15 = % over 65 divided by % in between 15-65 multiplied by 100 % of pop under 15 = % over 65 divided by % in between 15-65 multiplied by 100 Tells you how many dependents for every 100 workers Tells you how many dependents for every 100 workers Stage 2 countries: ratio is 1:1 (1 worker for every dependent) Dependents are young Stage 2 countries: ratio is 1:1 (1 worker for every dependent) Dependents are young Stage 4 countries ratio is 2:1 (2 workers for every dependent) Dependents are young and old Stage 4 countries ratio is 2:1 (2 workers for every dependent) Dependents are young and old

32. Age Distribution – cont’d Graying of the pop in MDCs – more than ¼ of all govn’t expenditures in US, Canada, Japan, and W. Eur goes to Social Security, health care, and other programs for the elderlyGraying of the pop in MDCs – more than ¼ of all govn’t expenditures in US, Canada, Japan, and W. Eur goes to Social Security, health care, and other programs for the elderly Baby Boomer Cohort in US (born 1946- 1964)…what does this mean for you?Baby Boomer Cohort in US (born 1946- 1964)…what does this mean for you? Generation X = 1965-1980Generation X = 1965-1980

33. Population Structure and Composition – cont’d Race and Ethnicity: Hispanics now largest minority in US (recently passed African Americans) Race and Ethnicity: Hispanics now largest minority in US (recently passed African Americans) 11% of US pop is foreign born11% of US pop is foreign born 50% of that from LA 50% of that from LA 50% of that from Mexico 50% of that from Mexico

34. What do you see? Why?

36. Overpopulation and Sustainability Should we worry @ overpopulation? Should we worry @ overpopulation? Thomas Malthus – 1798 wrote “Essay on the Principle of Pop” and arguedThomas Malthus – 1798 wrote “Essay on the Principle of Pop” and argued people need food to survive and have natural desire to reproduce people need food to survive and have natural desire to reproduce Food prod increases arithmetically and pop increases geometrically/exponentially Food prod increases arithmetically and pop increases geometrically/exponentially Predicted pop growth would eventually outpace people’s ability to produce food leading to starvation and famine Predicted pop growth would eventually outpace people’s ability to produce food leading to starvation and famine

37. Malthus and his theory

38. Neo Malthusians Argue that 2 characteristics of recent pop growth make Malthus’ argument even more frightening Argue that 2 characteristics of recent pop growth make Malthus’ argument even more frightening Esp high growth in LDCsEsp high growth in LDCs Pop growth outpacing econ dev in many LDCs (i.e. income rises 20% but pop rises 30%, so some LDCs worse off than they were 30 yrs ago)Pop growth outpacing econ dev in many LDCs (i.e. income rises 20% but pop rises 30%, so some LDCs worse off than they were 30 yrs ago) Paul Erlich – most prominent neo-Malthusian. Wrote “Population Bomb” in 1968 – warned of mass starvation due to overpopulationPaul Erlich – most prominent neo-Malthusian. Wrote “Population Bomb” in 1968 – warned of mass starvation due to overpopulation http://overpopulationisamyth.com/ov erpopulation-the-making-of-a-myth

39. Critics of Malthus Malthus did not account for ability of people to increase food prod dramatically w/ new technology (go to video 3) Malthus did not account for ability of people to increase food prod dramatically w/ new technology (go to video 3) Malthus did not foresee family planning and birth control and drop of CBR/NIR Malthus did not foresee family planning and birth control and drop of CBR/NIR Malthus did not recognize that famine is usually NOT related to a lack of food but to unequal dist of food – Marxist approach Malthus did not recognize that famine is usually NOT related to a lack of food but to unequal dist of food – Marxist approach http://overpopulationisamyth.com/ov erpopulation-the-making-of-a-myth

40. Population and Sustainability Carrying Capacity: # of people a given area can maintain…surpassed in densely populated places Carrying Capacity: # of people a given area can maintain…surpassed in densely populated places Overpopulation implies a breach of an area’s carrying capacity. Also involves Overpopulation implies a breach of an area’s carrying capacity. Also involves Over consumption of resourcesOver consumption of resources Inefficient allocation of goodsInefficient allocation of goods Unsustainable land useUnsustainable land use MDC’s blame LDC’s – have too many babiesMDC’s blame LDC’s – have too many babies LDCs blame MDCs – consume disproportionate share of world’s resourcesLDCs blame MDCs – consume disproportionate share of world’s resources

41. Control of Population Pro-Natalist Policies – government policies to promote reproduction and bigger families Pro-Natalist Policies – government policies to promote reproduction and bigger families Ex. Tax breaksEx. Tax breaks Anti-Natalist – government and social policies that discourage reproduction to reduce pop growth rates Anti-Natalist – government and social policies that discourage reproduction to reduce pop growth rates Tax breaks for sterilizationTax breaks for sterilization One-child policies – may lead to gender imbalanceOne-child policies – may lead to gender imbalance

42. Control of Population Improve local and state economies Improve local and state economies Better school, more eco opportunitiesBetter school, more eco opportunities Reduce CBR through the use of contraception Reduce CBR through the use of contraception Family planning programs in LDCsFamily planning programs in LDCs Why is this sometimes difficult?Why is this sometimes difficult?

43. Epidemiological Transition Model At times high CDR have lowered NIR At times high CDR have lowered NIR Stage 1: Pestilence and Famine: i.e. infectious diseases…ex: Black Plague 1350s kills ½ Eur pop Stage 1: Pestilence and Famine: i.e. infectious diseases…ex: Black Plague 1350s kills ½ Eur pop Stage 2: Receding Pandemics: improved sanitation, nutrition, medicine of Ind Rev decreases spread of infect diseases Stage 2: Receding Pandemics: improved sanitation, nutrition, medicine of Ind Rev decreases spread of infect diseases

44. Epidemiological Transition Model Cont’d Stage 3: Degenerative and Human Created Diseases Stage 3: Degenerative and Human Created Diseases Fewer deaths from infectious diseasesFewer deaths from infectious diseases Increase in chronic disease associated w/ aging (heart disease and cancer)Increase in chronic disease associated w/ aging (heart disease and cancer) Stage 4: Delayed Degenerative Diseases – degenerative diseases linger but life exp is extended trough medical advances (bypass, radiation, chemo, etc.) Stage 4: Delayed Degenerative Diseases – degenerative diseases linger but life exp is extended trough medical advances (bypass, radiation, chemo, etc.)

45. Epidemiological Transition Model Cont’d Possible Stage 5 – Reemergence of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases Possible Stage 5 – Reemergence of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases Evolution of new strains of bacteria (TB, polio, malaria)Evolution of new strains of bacteria (TB, polio, malaria) Poverty – people cannot afford drug treatment (TB)Poverty – people cannot afford drug treatment (TB) Improved travel diffuses diseases faster (AIDS)Improved travel diffuses diseases faster (AIDS)