1. The PhD Program in Climate Dynamics at George Mason University Prospects for an Inter-disciplinary Institute on Environment and Society Jim Kinter Center for Ocean-Land- Atmosphere Studies -and- George Mason University

2. PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter The dynamics of climate is an interesting scientific problem… Precipitation patterns are affected by Atmospheric circulation (e.g. Hadley and other meridional cells) which is in turn influenced by Sea surface temperature Land surface state

3. PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter What do we mean by “climate”? The statistical distribution in space (lat., long., alt.) and time of atmospheric quantities: temperature, pressure, moisture, etc. oceanic quantities: temperature, salinity and current land surface quantities: soil moisture and canopy evapotranspiration cryosphere quantities such as sea ice cover and land ice volume There is no unambiguous definition Variability on time-scales of a few days or less: “weather” Variability on time-scales of a few weeks or more: “climate” BUT … the scientific problem of predicting weather and climate is essentially a single “seamless” problem

4. PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter Prof. Ed Lorenz Prof. J. Shukla Two big ideas informing our work: CHAOS PREDICTABILITY

5. PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter Chaos Sensitive dependence on initial conditions Lorenz showed that small perturbations (“ the flapping of a butterfly’s wings”) can lead to changes in the atmospheric state on all scales and that unpredictable small-scale eddies influence larger scale eddies such that the uncertainty transfers upscale  Predictability of weather limited to a few weeks Climate Predictability Time and space averages may be more predictable Dynamics of ocean and land surface have longer intrinsic time- scales than atmosphere External forcing may also have long time-scales orbital variations  ice ages CO 2 emissions  global warming

6. PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter Climate Variability TIME SCALEPHENOMENON Days-weeksFronts, MCC/MCS, (extra)tropical cyclones Weeks-monthsBlocking, MJO, active/break monsoon Months-seasonsAnnual cycle, NAO Seasons-yearsENSO, QBO Years-decadesPDO, AMO, MOC Decades and longerAnthropogenic changes, solar cycles, ice ages, continental drift …

7. PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter Climate Impacts TIME SCALEPHENOMENON Days-weeksFlash floods, high winds Weeks-months“Flash” droughts, long-term floods Months-seasonsHeat waves, cold spells, seasonal droughts Seasons-yearsLong-term droughts, vegetation shifts Years-decadesMega-droughts Decades and longerGlobal warming, sea-level rise, ocean acidification

8. PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter How do we address such problems? Hypothesis testing –Planetary-scale phenomena require planetary- scale experiments … BUT … –You can’t mess with Mother Nature: experimenting on the only planet we have is bad idea Prediction –Using past data to project future conditions Both require sophisticated models

9. PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter Climate Dynamics PhD Program Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences Department George Mason University http://aoes.gmu.edu/academics/graduate/climate

10. PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter GMU Ph.D. Program in Climate Dynamics Affiliated with the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences (AOES) and the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) Faculty T. DelSole; Ph.D., Harvard Univ. P. Dirmeyer; Ph.D., Univ. of Maryland E. Jin; Ph.D., Seoul National Univ. B. Huang; Ph.D., Univ. of Maryland V. Krishnamurthy; Ph.D., M.I.T. J. Lu; Ph.D., Dalhousie Univ. J. Kinter; Ph.D., Princeton Univ. B. Klinger; Ph.D., M.I.T./Woods Hole Ocean. Inst. E. Schneider; Ph.D., Harvard Univ. P. Schopf; Ph.D., Princeton Univ. J. Shukla (director); Ph.D., B.H.U.; Sc.D., M.I.T C. Stan; Ph.D., Colorado State Univ. D. Straus (chair); Ph.D., Cornell Univ.

11. PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter 2002-2011 GMU Climate Dynamics PhD Recipients Deepthi Achuthavarier Role of the Indian and Pacific Oceans in Indian Summer Monsoon Variability Research Scientist NASA Goddard Whit Anderson Oceanic Sill - Overflow Systems: Investigation and Simulation with the Poseidon OGCM Research Scientist NOAA GFDL Kristi Arsenault (2011) Impact of Model and Observational Error on Assimilating Snow Cover Fraction Observations Research Scientist NASA Goddard Susan BatesThe Role of the Annual Cycle in the Coupled Ocean- Atmosphere Variability in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean Research Scientist NCAR Robert BurgmanENSO Decadal Variability in a Tropically-Forced Hybrid Coupled Model Assistant Professor Florida International University Carlos CruzGlobal Ocean Circulation Variability Induced by Southern Ocean Winds Research Scientist NASA Goddard Meizhu FanLow Frequency North Atlantic SST Variability: Weather Noise Forcing and Coupled Response Research Scientist NOAA NESDIS Xia FengNew Methods For Estimating Seasonal Potential Climate Predictability Post-doctoral Research Scientist George Mason University Laura FeudaleExtreme Events in Europe & N. America During 1950-2003: An Observational & Modeling Study Research Scientist ARPA/OSER (Italy) Youkyoung Jang (2011) The Atmospheric Influence of Tropical Diabatic Heating Associated with Developing ENSO on Indian Monsoon Post-doctoral Research Scientist Florida International University Liwei Jia (2011)Robust Multi-year Predictability on Continental ScalesPost-doctoral Research Scientist COLA 11 GMU Ph.D. Program in Climate Dynamics

12. PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter 2002-2011 GMU Climate Dynamics PhD Recipients Daeho JinThe Impact of ENSO on the ExtratropicsPost-doctoral Research Scientist University of Maryland, College Park Jian Li (2011) SST Diurnal Variability in the CFS and its Influence on Low Frequency Variability Research Scientist NOAA NESDIS Julia ManganelloThe Influence of SST Anomalies on Low-Frequency Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation Research Scientist COLA Bala NarapusettyImpact Of Tropical Instability Waves In The Eastern Equatorial Pacific Post-doctoral Research Scientist COLA Xiaohua Pan Impact of Mean Climate on ENSO Simulation and Prediction Post-doctoral Research Scientist University of Maryland, Baltimore County Kathy Pegion Potential Predictability of Tropical Intraseasonal Variability in the NCEP CFS Post-doctoral Research Scientist CIRES, University of Colorado Mary Ellen Verona Observational Analysis and Numerical Simulation of 1997- 1998 El Niño deceased Yuri VikhliaevDecadal Extra-Tropical Pacific VariabilityPost-doctoral Research Scientist NASA Goddard Li Xu (2011) Snow Cover as a Source of Climate Predictability: Mechanisms of Snow-Atmosphere Coupling Research Scientist COLA Tugrul YilmazImproving Land Data Assimilation Performance With A Water Budget Constraint Post-doctoral Research Scientist U.S. Department of Agriculture 12 GMU Ph.D. Program in Climate Dynamics

13. PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter A. Badger (Dirmeyer) G. Bucher (Boybeyi) H. Chen (Schneider) I. Colfescu (Schneider) X. Feng (Lu) A. Garuba (Klinger) A. Hazra (Klinger) Y. Jin (Stan) L. Krishnamurthy (Krishnamurthy) E. Lajoie (DelSole) J. Nattala (Kinter) E. Palipane (Lu) M. Scafonas (Lu) B. Singh (Krishnamurthy) A. Srivastava (Shukla/Huang) E. Stofferahn (Boybeyi) E. Swenson (Straus) X. Yan (DelSole) Bold = 2012/13 graduate 13 Current Graduate Students (Advisors) GMU Ph.D. Program in Climate Dynamics

14. PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter Weather and Climate Page http://aoes.gmu.edu/academics/graduate/climate

15. PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter Tools for Examining Virginia Weather and Climate

16. PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter Climate Impacts TIME SCALEPHENOMENON Days-weeksFlash floods, high winds Weeks-months“Flash” droughts, long-term floods Months-seasonsHeat waves, cold spells, seasonal droughts Seasons-yearsLong-term droughts, vegetation shifts Years-decadesMega-droughts Decades and longerGlobal warming, sea-level rise, ocean acidification

17. PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter Societal Impacts TIME SCALEPHENOMENON Days-weeksProperty and infrastructure damage; residential displacement Weeks-monthsCrop loss, soil erosion Months-seasonsHuman health effects: allergies, cardio-pulmonary stress, food shortages Seasons-yearsFamine, disease vector propagation Years-decadesSocietal unrest (Collapse – Jared Diamond) Decades and longerCoastal city threats, species extinction

18. PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter Drivers America’s Climate Choices (USGCRP) National Climate Assessment Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

19. PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter George Mason University Institute of Global Environmental and Society Goals To study and better understand the challenges of global environmental change, sustainability, and resiliency in the 21 st century, including the interactions among physical, biological and social systems. To enhance the academic programs of, and facilitate active interaction among, the several outstanding research and education efforts on environment and sustainability at George Mason University. To provide an objective assessment of projected environmental changes, especially for the Commonwealth of Virginia, with science-based strategies for adaptation and mitigation policy options. Inaugural Director: J. Shukla

20. PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter Mason Climate Centers Center for Ocean-Land- Atmosphere Studies Center for Climate Change Communication Center for Climate and Society Center for Global Ethics Tom Lovejoy Jim Kinter Ed Maibach Andrew Light

21. PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter A Prototypical Climate Phenomenon: ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) ENSO is the largest single element of global year-to-year variability Physics and dynamics of both atmosphere and ocean essential Internally generated, non-periodic oscillation

22. PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/impacts/warm_impacts.html in East, “cold tongue” of water upwells from below in West, “warm pool” of surface water Normal Winter Conditions, Equatorial Pacific “Walker Circulation” driven by sea surface temperature gradient Thermocline tilt/upwelling driven by westward wind stress Rainy west Dry east

23. PhD Program in Climate Dynamics || Institute of Global Environment and Society May 2013 – Jim Kinter www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/impacts/warm_impacts.html El Niño Winter Conditions, Equatorial Pacific warm pool extends across entire Pacific cold tongue disappears weakening of westerlies allows flattens thermocline, weakens upwelling small SST gradient weakens Walker Circulation, moves rainfall