1. © Agora PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR POST CONFLICT RECONSTRUCTION OPERATIONS Ensuring a Comprehensive Approach Presentation by Clare Lockhart RUSI, 31 October 2006

2. © Agora Support for Post Conflict Operations The only sustainable way to achieve long term, sustainable security across the world is if each nation state provides its own security: the West cannot afford to police the Rest Stability comes not through repression, but through establishment of legitimate institutions Order comes through creation of bonds of trust between citizen and state: each citizen must see a path to social and economic mobility This requires that state institutions are built and national governments assume responsibility to provide a range of services and functions for their citizens

3. © Agora Constraints in Our Current Response The current organizational forms and practices are not up to our current challenges: Silos of politics, security, development and humanitarian organizations hinder and fragment effective action on the ground Non-state provision of traditional state services: through development and humanitarian actors which substitute for and therefore undermine state, market and civil institutions Lack of harmonization: Domestic legal frameworks ignored: thousands of uncoordinated projects fragment rule of law Lack of predictability in flows of resources: resources flow through dozens of donors, on short time horizons and differing budget years: reconciliation of these not possible within a single budget framework Outcome: fragmentation, chaos, no coherent strategy

4. © Agora Constraints in our current approach The military solution: Limits to the use of force The aid solution: Failure of the aid system to deliver The government solution: The right of use and abuse The non-state actor solution: Taliban, Hamas, Hezbollah etc

5. © Agora The user perspective Story of state undermining in Afghanistan: 2002 vs 2005 Military costs $15bn in Afghanistan: support to aid system $3bn; international support to Afghanistan’s budget $200m. While professed goal is “state-building” allocation of resources to other objectives. In 2002, refusal to finance government budget ($20m vs $2bn): refusal to finance government buildings ($40m: not “poverty reducing”: as Afghanistan Stabilization Program: “too dangerous”) Pity the poor finance minister 40 donors, 70% of time spent coordinating external assistance Pity the poor governor $20m vs $2bn- mismatch in resources, therefore capability, authority and legitimacy Pity the poor citizen Allegiances to donors, with accountability mechanisms in place Complex games played at multiple levels: centrifugal forces that fragment power, authority and accountability

6. © Agora An alternative approach New form of partnership based on co-production Different timelines Different instruments

7. © Agora Framework for Failed State Reconstruction State Effectiveness Initiative set up in 2005 Series of Frameworks derived from theoretical and practical analysis: Constitute an integrated approach to state-building Recognizing the sovereignty deficit Agreeing on functions of the state Building a sovereignty index Creating sovereignty strategies Successive validation and refinements: Greentree Estate conference September 2005, African Development Bank, World Bank, UN, Government leaders, academic community Recently piloted at Operation Strong Angel III Application on the ground in Afghanistan, Sudan, Nepal, Lebanon

8. © Agora A state-building strategy

9. © Agora The ten functions of the state Monopoly on the legitimate means of violence Administration and information management Public finances Human capital Rights and responsibilities of citizens Infrastructure services Market regulation Natural and physical assets (environment, land, culture, natural resources) International relations (treaties, public borrowing, national image) Rule of law

10. © Agora Afghanistan 2001-4 Defining the problem: A state that lacks internal and external legitimacy Goal: To create a stable and prosperous Afghanistan that serves its citizens and fulfils its international obligations 3 Scenarios: Stalled Development/Lenin Tango Narco-mafia State Prosperous and stable Afghanistan

11. © Agora Three scenarios Stalled development CollapseNew nation

12. © Agora Afghanistan Mechanisms: Political process: Bonn Agreement, Loya Jirga Constitution- providing rule of law with cascading laws, procedures and protocols Presidential elections Strategic partnership: Karzai Tokyo Speech National Development Framework Afghanistan Development Forum, Berlin conference Afghan Compact

13. © Agora Afghanistan National Programs A vehicle for implementation of strategy Partnership with military strategic planners to define programs to meet the end-goal, for example, to create: Afghanistan National Army, A road network, Telecommunications, Public Finance, National Solidarity Program National Emergency Employment Program Steady momentum: one new program every six months

14. © Agora Military Planning in Afghanistan

15. © Agora Applications: Sudan Period of cease-fire after 24 years of conflict, complex legal agreements next to JAM and humanitarian plan Critical issue is implementing new rules of the game Mapping of assets, constraints, scenarios, identification of drivers Provision of decision matrix for leadership regarding critical tasks

16. © Agora Applications: Nepal Recipient of enormous aid, at start of crisis Critical issue is unstable dual power Stakeholder analysis, scenarios and drivers, definition of critical tasks Delineation of roles for international actors Options for implementation

17. © Agora Applications: Lebanon Establishment of state institutions across the territory Vacuum in South after departure of Israeli army Failure of State to establish economic, security or political institutions e.g. $80bn in deposits in Lebanese banking system Southern farming economy = olives and tobacco

18. © Agora New instruments The “Double Compact”: benchmarks & timelines as basis for exit Longer time frames: ten to fifteen years, not one to two years Unify financing flows: trust funds, budget management, procurement Approach to capacity building: South Korea model of transfer of skills, “embedded trainers” Preparation of projects: feasibility studies Supply chain management

19. © Agora Roles for the international system 1. Direct administrator 2. Facilitator 3. Strategic adviser 4. Catalyst 5. Substitute provider 6. Monitor 7. Evaluator 8. Referee 9. Knowledge transferor 10. Financier “Co-producer” of institutions through partnership