1. The Middle East Region Geopolitical Comments from the 19 th Century through the Present Presented by: Bob McKenzie 1 October 24, 2014

2. Introduction Brief background of current and previous assignments and education Brief background of current and previous assignments and education 2

3. Agenda Why is Middle East relevant to the United States Why is Middle East relevant to the United States Factors that influenced the shaping of today’s Middle East Factors that influenced the shaping of today’s Middle East Recent Major U.S. military involvement in the Middle East and Southwest Asia Recent Major U.S. military involvement in the Middle East and Southwest Asia Discussion questions Discussion questions 3

4. Importance of Middle East United States has declared the Middle East to be a national interest United States has declared the Middle East to be a national interest Access to resources Access to resources Support of Israel Support of Israel Promote International Stability Promote International Stability Access to US export markets Access to US export markets 4

5. Shaping Factors Factors that influenced the shaping of today’s Middle East Factors that influenced the shaping of today’s Middle East  Colonial Antecedents  Geography  Climate  Commerce  Governing Structure  Resources  Demographics  C  Culture and religion 5

6. Map of today’s Middle East 6

7. Middle East Resources 7

8. Middle East Religions by Region 8

9. Middle East Population Growth 9 Population growth [1] [1] #1990200820101990-2008Growth % Million1990-081990-10 1Bahrain0.490.771.260.356%157% 2Cyprus0.580.80 0.238% 3Egypt57.7981.5381.1223.741%40% 4Iran54.4071.9673.9717.632%36% 5Iraq18.1428.2232.3210.156%78% 6Israel4.687.317.622.656%63% 7Jordan3.175.916.052.786%91% 8Kuwait2.132.732.740.628%29% 9Lebanon2.974.144.231.239%42% 10Oman1.842.792.780.951% 11Palestine1.903.914.122.0106%117% 12Qatar0.471.281.760.8174%274% 13Saudi Arabia16.3824.6527.458.350%68% 14Syria12.7221.2320.458.567%61% 15Turkey55.1271.0872.8516.029%32% 16UAE1.874.377.512.5134%302% 17Yemen12.3123.0524.0510.787%95% xTotal246.96355.73371.0866.951 %61% xWorld5,265.26,687.96,8251,422.727 %30% Source: OECD/World Bank

10. Unemployment Rates 10

11. US at War in Middle East Desert Shield / Desert Storm (1990-1991) US at War in Middle East Desert Shield / Desert Storm (1990-1991) 11

12. Operation Southern Watch (1991 – 2003) Operation Southern Watch (1991 – 2003) 12

13. Operation Iraqi Freedom (2003-2009) 13

14. US at War in Middle East 2014 Operation Inherent Resolve US at War in Middle East 2014 Operation Inherent Resolve 14

15. Islamic State of Iraq and Syria Started in 1990s Started in 1990s Expanded by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in 2004-6 (AQI) Expanded by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in 2004-6 (AQI) Leveraged Sunni discontent with Baghdad Government since 2007 Leveraged Sunni discontent with Baghdad Government since 2007 Became dominant military and governing force opposing Assad in Syria Became dominant military and governing force opposing Assad in Syria Today they have positioned military forces with 20 kilometers of Baghdad International Airport Today they have positioned military forces with 20 kilometers of Baghdad International Airport 15

16. What is ISIS about ….. Adhere to strict Muslim rules (Sharia Law) Adhere to strict Muslim rules (Sharia Law) Establish a Caliphate from the Mediteranean to the Northern Arabian Gulf Establish a Caliphate from the Mediteranean to the Northern Arabian Gulf Anti-Shia Muslim Anti-Shia Muslim Anti-infidel Anti-infidel Attempting to provide good governance over captured areas Attempting to provide good governance over captured areas Criminal Enterprise Criminal Enterprise Death Cult Death Cult An international magnet for disillusioned Islamists An international magnet for disillusioned Islamists Logistically disciplined Logistically disciplined Strategically Savvy Strategically Savvy Learning organization Learning organization 16

17. Area of ISIS Control 17

18. Available US Military Power in Middle East 18

19. Questions for Discussion - Is the US at war with ISIS? - What US national interests are impacted? Vital interests? Important interests? Peripheral? - What end state does the US desire? - What resources are the US willing to allocate to reach our desired end state? - Can the ISIS governance model flourish? 19