1. Application of the Histocity Method to Mobility analysis and scenario definition in the city of Florence, Italy M.A. Esposito Università degli Studi di Firenze, IT U. Biagi GIS_L.A.B., IT

2. HISTOCITY is a research and training network on ”HISTORICAL CITIES SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT” funded by the EC under the TMR PROGRAMME and its mission is to define Urban analysis, design and management integrated methods based on holistic approach as well as on GIS The HISTOCITY Network

3. The HISTOCITY method Urban analysis based on geographical information (improving GI availability and standardisation) Scenario definition and strategic plans design based on GI Design of Spatial Decision Support Tools to coordinate the initiatives of public institutions and mediate public/private agreement relative to strategic objectives/resources management Define guidelines for better regulations and co-ordinate norms at different administrative levels, examining actual processes and monitoring feed-back

4. PROJECT PARTNERS

5. AIMS OF THE PROJECT Assess the current mobility system Evaluate the impact of high-speed train on historical center Integrate the analysis of urban planning and transport networks Define alternative scenarios for urban planning and transport networks Assess the future mobility system

6. MAIN STEPS OF THE PROJECT Definition of variables, resources and targets Individuation of transport and urban models based on the zoning of the area of study Selection of suitable data and data quality assessment GIS database implementation ARC-INFO Import/Export procedures to acquire the outputs of transport simulation Transport networks simulation Analysis of urban systems currently involved Definition of alternative scenarios Project proposal

7. Urban Mobility Objective/Variables strategic matrix

8. Firenze’s models and zoning Demand and supply of transport Socio-economic model Mobility catchment area Administrative boundaries Transport networks and facilities

9. Data selection and quality assessment Geographic data available on the study area: Demographic data Road/railway networks Commuter flow data Built asset data

10. GIS Data Bases implementation ARC-INFO Data Bases definition, structuring, acquisition and implementation

11. ARC-INFO Import/Export procedure Transports’ simulation using EMME2 ARC-INFO Import/Export procedure to acquire/exchange outputs

12. Analysis steps Selection of data source Import of data to Arc-View Design of queries for typical analysis Definition of queries for current scenario

13. Traffic flow among city zones total input-output

14. Public transportation users among city zones total input-output

15. Population density compared to commercial services location and traffic flows

16. Scenario definition steps Selection of data source Import of data to Arc-View Definition of queries for future scenario Comparison of alternative scenarios

17. Traffic flows and movement among city zones (MIT forecast)

18. Public transportation users among city zones total input-output (MIT forecast)

19. Traffic flows and movement among city zones (ECMT forecast)

20. Public transportation users among city zones total input-output (ECMT forecast)

21. FUTURE SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS Traffic congestion (22p)

22. FUTURE SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS Lack of accessibility to specific city zones (21p)

23. FUTURE SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS Urban planning: not rational location of traffic new attraction poles (28p) compared with available transportation facilities

24. FUTURE SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS Lack of accessibility to historical city center due to limited transportation options (22p,7p, 9p)

25. FUTURE SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS Lack of train use by suburban commuters despite availability of 4 railway stations (26p)

26. FUTURE SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS Low average speed of transportation modes (27p)

27. FUTURE SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS Most frequent bus routes concentrated on arcs corresponding to historical streets and buildings with high environmental sensitivity

28. A sustainable solution?

29. Results discussion weak versus strong points The process cannot be started up without a strategic framework definition (variables, resources, targets) Current GIS cannot manage dynamic simulations it can draw analysis and scenarios like: –transportation network flows –population micro-dynamics –traffic attraction poles modification The process also reveals problems such as: –center’s population decrease –urban sprawl –center’s work activities decrease –accessibility decrease –road net congestion, etc.