1. November 2005 Creativity in Policy-making: A Case for Context in Foresight Gordon J. Pace (joint work with Jennifer Cassingena Harper)

2. 2 Exchange of Foresight Relevant Experiences among Small European Enlargement Countries (2001-3) The eFORESEE Project was a two-year foresight project funded by the European Union’s Fifth Framework (FP5) STRATA Programme involving three accession countries Malta, Cyprus and Estonia. eFORESEE explores the potential role of foresight in innovation policy-development within a small country context. The Malta eFORESEE project presents a creative fusion of innovation and socio-cultural foresight – highlighting the potential for harnessing the impact of context for optimum effect.

3. 3 Traditional Definition “Foresight is a systematic, participatory, future intelligence-gathering and medium-to-long-term vision-building process aimed at present-day decisions and mobilising joint actions. Foresight arises from a convergence of trends underlying recent developments in the fields of ‘policy analysis’, ‘strategic planning’ and ‘future studies’. It brings together key agents of change and various sources of knowledge in order to develop strategic visions and anticipatory intelligence”. (EU FOREN Guide)

4. 4 Overview of methods: Focus on Creativity Source: D.Loveridge

5. 5 Redefining Foresight 1. A set of tools to survey systematically chances for development and open options for actions at present to determine alternative future outcomes. 2. A process – a systematic, participatory, future intelligence-gathering and medium-to-long-term vision-building process.

6. 6 Redefining Foresight (2) 3. A group of actors actively and creatively exploring potential future scenarios to build a unified vision of alternative futures.

7. 7 Actor-based Foresight 1. A philosophy/approach to life separating the proactive from the reactive, the path- dependant from the path-breakers. 2. The capacity to contemplate on, anticipate and cope with the future – a set of skills which can be taught, but presumes a mindset open to creative, proactive and exploratory thinking.

8. 8 Actor-based Foresight 1. A philosophy/approach to life separating the proactive from the reactive, the path- dependant from the path-breakers. 2. The capacity to contemplate on, anticipate and cope with the future – a set of skills which can be taught, but presumes a mindset open to creative, proactive and exploratory thinking. Foresight is in the mindset of the actors, not of the tools and process.

9. 9 Context in Foresight The process happens in a context which is itself under analysis and its future evolution explored. The actors’ mindset is a context which determines the tools used, and their effectiveness.

10. 10 Context in Foresight The process happens in a context which is itself under analysis and its future evolution explored. The actors’ mindset is a context which determines the tools used, and their effectiveness. Explicit socio-economic context, traditionally explored in Foresight – it is the topic of the exercise.

11. 11 Context in Foresight The process happens in a context which is itself under analysis and its future evolution explored. The actors’ mindset is a context which determines the tools used, and their effectiveness. This context may determine which tools to adopted.

12. 12 Context in Foresight The process happens in a context which is itself under analysis and its future evolution explored. The actors’ mindset is a context which determines the tools used, and their effectiveness. This implicit cultural context determines how tools may have to be adapted, even re- thought.

13. 13 Policy Context in Foresight Foresight’s rationale, tools and approaches have evolved in response to an advanced large country context with an existing tradition for rational approaches to innovation and technology policy. In Malta, foresight meets an altogether different context: a small country in transition with very limited resources and no rational approaches to policy. Policy is not only shaped by context – it is context-driven. Foresight has a critical role to play here in breaking path-dependency in policy by liberating mind-sets and virtuous circles. Ideally foresight is not merely adapted to the new context - but is rather completely re-thought! Hence the case for creativity in foresight.

14. 14 Transition to the EU Context: Membership Challenge Opportunities The (economic, political, military…) security afforded through membership. Opportunity to escape from constraints of context and path-dependency Faster transition to the knowledge society Threats Loss of socio-cultural identity and values Impact on marginalised groups Heavy burden of compliance with EU Acquis

15. 15 Transition to the EU Context: Membership Challenge Opportunities The (economic, political, military..) security afforded through membership. Opportunity to escape from constraints of context and path-dependency Faster transition to the knowledge society Threats Loss of socio-cultural identity and values Impact on marginalised groups Heavy burden of compliance with EU Acquis Malta’s small size can prove both a threat and an opportunity!

16. 16 The Local Context Island state, island culture Small size, small population Mediterranean, British, Catholic influences

17. 17 The Foresight Process Reviewed

18. 18 divergence synthesis The Foresight Process Reviewed

19. 19 The Foresight Process Reviewed

20. 20 Foresight’s Role in Policy … Foresight (Virtuous Circle) Systematic approaches to policy (Rational) Recording the process Consensus-building Long-term vision Open processes of governance Processes for organising expert and non-expert inputs

21. 21 … meets the Maltese Context Foresight (Virtuous Circle) Malta (Vicious circle) Systematic approaches to policy (Rational) Weak tradition of systematic approaches (Chaos) Recording the processVerbal rather than written Consensus-buildingDivisive and individualistic Long-term visionShort-term, reactive Open processes of governance Closed systems, clientelism Processes for organising expert and non-expert inputs Blurring of expert/non-expert divide

22. 22 Creativity in Foresight: Creating Strengths in Malta’s Context Foresight as a tool for achieving turn-around from vicious to virtuous circles in policy development Fusing innovation and socio-cultural foresight Effective use of macro-scenarios and ICT Bringing implementation into design Foresight as timeless ‘live’ dialogue – fusing with ongoing strategic conversations

23. 23 Malta eFORESEE Definition “ The foresight process involves intense iterative phases of open reflection, networking, consultation, and discussion leading to the joint refining of future visions and the common ownership of strategies, with the aim of exploiting long-term opportunities opened up through the impact of STI on society …. It is the discovery of a common space for open thinking on the future and the incubation of strategic approaches … in this sense the foresight process has no beginning or end, since it builds on previous and ongoing conversations and consultations and sets in motion learning curves and other intangible spin-offs which are not easily captured in short timeframes…”

24. 24 Foresight encourages rising above the accepted norm, and not to limit the thought process by the context.

25. 25 Foresight encourages rising above the accepted norm, and not to limit the thought process by the context. However, Foresight is applied within a socio-economic, cultural context.

26. 26 One way of rising above the restraining context is by redesigning thinking tools to that same context.

27. 27 For more information Websites http://www.eforesee.info http://www.mcst.org.mt Contacts  Gordon.Pace@um.edu.mt  Jennifer.Harper@mcst.org.mt