1. Surveying Cell Phone-Only Canadians: Looking at the Possibilities Presentation to the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association Ottawa Chapter February 19, 2009

2. Why the research was conducted - presence of cell-only households - higher incidence among younger people, men and single- person households - effect on representativeness of RDD samples - part of wider study on the use the new technologies in communications

3. Who conducted the research: The sampling frame development: ASDE Survey Sampler The sampling and interviewing: Ekos Research Associates The analysis: Arcturus Research Solutions The client: The Public Opinion Research Directorate of Public Works and Government Services Canada

4. The current situation - 14% of households in the US and 5% in Canada are cell-only - The trend in Canada and especially the US is up (see citation below) - cell-only are disproportionately - one-person unattached - found in large urban areas - 18 to 34 yrs - below-average income Source: Statistics Canada’s Residential Telephone Survey; and Ambrose, Don; Gray, Derrick; and Halpenny, Gary; Follow-up on cell-only households – a growing concern for telephone surveys;. VUE, January 2008; pages 16-18

5. The current situation (continued) RDD Surveys that exclude cell-only households could encounter the following: - increasingly incomplete sampling frame - non response bias (young adults, single-person households) If present trends continue, the problem is likely to get worse…

6. Comparison of Coverage of the Population: Telephone and the Internet Telephone: RTSS Survey, Statistics Canada 2006; Internet: New Technologies and Government of Canada Communications, 2007

7. How the Cell Phone Only (CPO) sample was developed Randa Bell Vice President ASDE Survey Sampler February 19, 2009

8. Discussions with clients at 2007 MRIA Conference in Collingwood Following growth closely in US 5% of Canadian Households are CPO (Stats Can December 2006 Report)‏

9. Idea comes to life!

10. Some numbers Cell phones first appeared in Canada around 1983 Today, upwards of 67% penetration 3,000+ exchanges reserved for cell phone only (Telcordia) ‏

11. Some numbers (continued)‏ Each exchange can contain up to 10,000 numbers … potential of 30 million Estimate each exchange to be populated at 50 % … which means 15 million cell phones to be reached in Canada

12. The process Huge capacity of ASDE’s IVR System Generated numbers at random in cell phone dedicated exchanges Proportionate to population of Canada by province

13. The process (continued)‏ Programmed and recorded survey with one question only Nature of cell phone we were reaching: CPO household or in addition to landline Simplified wording

14. The questionnaire 20 seconds, National Study Only one question, nothing to sell Phone line which is not cell phone = PRESS 1 Cell phone only household = PRESS 2 Reimbursement of call = PRESS 3 Repeat question = PRESS 9

15. The results Two very useful lists 1.Any cell phone that connected 2.CPO households (most valuable list)‏ PWGSC chose sample from each list

16. How to incorporate cell only samples into RDD Dual frame sampling method Portion from cell phones Portion from RDD Augment traditional sample with cell phone numbers (no overlap)

17. How to incorporate cell only samples into RDD Include proportion of CPO households (7%) in sample Possibly assign quota on completed interviews vs. starting sample

18. Research Approach A text message was sent on January 9, 2008 to 2,391 numbers provided by ASDE Survey sampler English message was: “The Government has hired EKOS to conduct a study on internet-based technologies and their use in Canada. You are invited to participate.” Average length of interview: 12.8 minutes Interviews conducted: January 14 to 28, 2008

19. The Government of Canada New Technologies in Communications Study: the three modes Item Cell-onlyRDDGoC Online Sample2031,7182,619 PeriodJanuary 2008 Oct/Nov 2007 Oct/Nov 2007 Response/ completion 17%22%66%

20. Early Termination of Interviews Question: “To begin, we would like to confirm that you are not currently operating a motorized vehicle or machinery of any kind such as a car, truck, van, all terrain vehicle, snowmobile, etc…?” n=293

21. Terminations owing to Presence of Landline 70 interviews terminated because they have landline in the household

22. Recall of Text Message Question: “Do you recall receiving a text message on your cell-phone or wireless device from our company in the past five to seven days notifying you that we would be phoning you to complete an interview? Please Note: All survey respondents who wish will be sent a gift certificate for $10.00 to either Chapters-Indigo or Tim Hortons, their choice, as a token of our appreciation.” n=203

23. Preferred Incentive Question: “As we mentioned at the beginning of the survey, we would like to send you a $10 gift certificate to either Chapters- Indigo or Tim Hortons for taking part in this surveys, would you like to receive a $10 gift certificate?” n=203

24. The Call Disposition Total numbers accepted2,391 Total out of scope 549 Unresolved 920 In-scope non-responding 611 Language difficulty10 Unavailable0 Refusals598 Break-offs 3 In-scope responding311 Completes203 Ineligible 77 Quota filled 31 Response rate16.9%

25. The Cell-Phone Interview Situation Response to question, “While completing this interview, were you alone or with other people?” (n=203)

26. Cell Phone Ownership Response to question, “Are you the sole owner of this cell phone or is its shared with at least one other person 16 years of age or older?” (n=203)

27. Location of the Cell-Phone Interview Response to question, “When we contacted you, were at …work or school…at home…outdoors?” (n=203)

28. The Sample: by Gender (n=203)

29. The Sample: by Age (n=203)

30. The Sample: by Education (n=203)

31. The Sample: by Household Income (in $000) (n=203)

32. The Sample: by Number of Persons in Household (n=203)

33. Internet Use: Cell-only versus Landline Respondents, by Age Question: “Do you personally use the Internet? This includes using e-mail.” (cell-only, n=203; landline, n=1718)

34. Mean Hours per Week on the Internet: Cell-only versus Landline Respondents Question: “ln a typical week, how many hours do you spend on the Internet, not including the time you spend sending or receiving e-mails? Please include all locations, such as home, work, school, etc…” (cell-only, n=172; landline, n=1,314)

35. Reading or Contributing to Blogs: Cell-only versus Landline Respondents Question: “How frequently, if ever, do you… read or contribute to a blog?” (cell-only, n=168; landline, n=1203)

36. Participating in Social Network Sites: Cell-only versus Landline Respondents Question: “How frequently, if ever, do you…participate in a social networking site like Facebook or Myspace?” (cell-only, n=168; landline=1,271)

37. Using Sites like YouTube: Cell-only versus Landline Respondents Question: “How frequently, if ever, do you…view, post or download videos from sites like YouTube?” (cell-only, n=168; landline, n=1340)

38. Mean Ratings for Web 2.0 Reliability compared to Traditional Media “Thinking about the different Internet-based applications and technologies that we have been talking about, do you think that the information available on these sources is more or less reliable than information obtained through traditional media, such as television, radio or print? Please use a 5-point scale where 1 means much less reliable, 5 means much more reliable and the mid-point 3 means the same level of reliability.” (cell-only, n=168; landline=1,292; online, n=1,216)

39. Significant differences between the Cell-Phone and Landline Samples: Demographics (significant at the a=.05 level) SignificantNot significant Gender Age Official Language Education Income Household Size Employment Status Province Urban/Rural Residence

40. Significant differences between the Cell-Phone and Landline Samples: Attitudes (significant at the a=.05 level) SignificantNot significant “Internet more reliable than traditional media” “The Government should invest in Web 2.0” “Canadians should be allowed to post content on GoC web sites” “The Government should post material on popular web sites” “If GoC material appears on a web site, it means that the Government endorses the web site”

41. Significant differences between the Cell-Phone and Landline Samples: Behaviour (significant at the a=.05 level) SignificantNot significant Hours spent on Internet Keep informed of Government news and information Contribute to blogs Messages and chat rooms Contribute to social networking sites Download from YouTube Internet use Use of pod/video webcasts

42. Preference for Survey Mode: Cell-Only Sample Question: “If you were invited to take part in a Government of Canada public opinion survey, which method would you prefer: completing an online survey or taking part in cell-phone interview, or you have no preference?”

43. Likelihood of Participating in Another Cell-Phone Survey Response to question, “How likely are you to agree in the future to participate in a Government of Canada survey over the cell phone: very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely or not at all likely?”.

44. Reasons Given for Not Participating in Future Cell- Phone Survey (number of respondents) (Among persons who said “not very likely” or “not at all likely”) Response to question, “Why do you say that?” Number of responses (n=26)

45. Costing: the Final Analysis Total cost: $20,803 Cost per completed interview: $102.48

46. Costing: Hypothetical Survey of 1,000 Adults Cost per completed interview 50 cell-only: $102.48 Cost per completed interview 950 landline: $24.21

47. Conclusions -Surveys of cell-phone only households feasible in Canada - Significant differences between cell-only and landline respondents: - subject matter - demographics - attitudes - behavioural

48. Conclusions (continued) - Canadians will respond - ethical/respondent burden - keep the survey short (12 minutes or less) - high cost relative to other modes - keep in mind target population of survey

49. The complete report is also available For a copy of the complete report (English) or the executive summary (English or French), see the report A Survey of Cellular- Telephone-Only Households The New Technologies “Web 2.0” and Government of Canada Communications Project at http://www.porr-rrop.gc.ca/index-e.html