1. © World Meteorological Organization World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water First Technical Workshop on Standards for Hazard Monitoring, Data, Metadata and Hazard Analysis to Support Risk Assessment and Analysis http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/projects/Thematic/HazardRisk/2013-04- TechWks/index_en.html Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction programme 10-14 June 2013 WMO HQ, Geneva www.wmo.int WMO

2. © World Meteorological Organization Content Impacts of weather-, water-, and climate-related hazards in a changing Climate Background Role of WMO for Development of Guidelines and International Standards About the Workshop –Objectives –Participants –List of documents –Outputs Next Steps

3. © World Meteorological Organization Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.be Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data Global

4. © World Meteorological Organization WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data Global

5. © World Meteorological Organization WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data Global Droughts in East Africa (1983- 1984): 550,000 deaths Bhola Cyclone in Banglasdesh (1970): 300,000 deaths Cyclone Gorky in Bangladesh (1991): 139,000 deaths

6. © World Meteorological Organization WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data Global Hurricane Katrina in the United-States (2005): $US 142 billion

7. © World Meteorological Organization Socio-economic Impacts of Weather and Climate- Related Extremes on the Rise ! Intensity Frequency Heatwaves Heavy rainfall / Flood Strong Wind Water Resource Management People Agriculture Energy Urban areas Need for Disaster Risk Financing, Transfer and Multi-sectoral Risk Management Drought Transportation Hazard intensity and frequency increasing linked to climate variability and change! Vulnerability and exposure on the rise !

8. © World Meteorological Organization Content Impacts of weather-, water-, and climate-related hazards in a changing Climate Background Role of WMO for Development of Guidelines and International Standards About the Workshop –Objectives –Participants –List of documents –Outputs Next Steps

9. © World Meteorological Organization WMO DRR Programme Strategic Foundation WMO Strategic Plan 2008-2015 (Top Level Objectives and Five Strategic Thrusts) Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (World Conference on Disaster Reduction) WMO strategic priorities in Disaster Risk Reduction Consultations with WMO governing bodies, Regional and National network and partners

10. © World Meteorological Organization Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Services are critical to risk assessment and DRR decision-making Hyogo-Framework for Action 2005-2015 Risk Financing and Transfer Risk Assessment Hazard databases and metadata Forecasting and projections Loss and damage databases Exposure and vulnerability Statistical and forward looking approaches PREPAREDNESS: Early Warning Systems emergency planning PREVENTION and MITIGATION: Sectoral Medium to long term planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture…) Gov Investments, trust funds (ex-ante, post disaster) CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Other emerging products Risk Reduction Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training Governance and Institutional Framework (Policy, Legislation, legal framework, institutional coordination) (Multi-sector, Multi-level, Multi-Hazard) 3 1 5 4 2 6 © World Meteorological Organization

11. WMO Strategic Priorities in DRR Approved by WMO Congress XVI (2011) Providing data, analysis and hazard information for risk assessment, sectoral planning, risk financing and transfer and other informed decision-making; Development, improvement and sustainability of Multi-Hazard early warning systems; Development and delivery of warnings, specialized forecasts driven by requirements in socio-economic sectors; Better integration of meteorological, hydrological and climate information in risk management in socio economic sectors (e.g., land use planning and infrastructure design), Continued public education and outreach campaigns; and, Strengthening cooperation and partnerships with DRR stakeholders

12. © World Meteorological Organization Pacific Decadal Oscillation Northern Atlantic Oscillation IPCC Assessments UNFCCC negotiations WMO Co-Sponsors and Coordinates International Research Programmes: Modeling and forecasting of Weather and Climate World Climate Research Programme, World Weather Research Programme National Operational forecasting systems

13. © World Meteorological Organization WMO Coordinates a Global Operational Network 189 Members

14. © World Meteorological Organization WMO DRR Two-tier Work Plan Adopted by EC 64, item 4.2, Resolution 8 and its Annex Doc 4.2 Progress Report Paras 2 and 3 1 2 Regional Associations Technical Commissions

15. © World Meteorological Organization User-Driven Expert Advisory Groups (EAG) to guide WMO activities (EC 64 and 65)

16. © World Meteorological Organization User-Driven Expert Advisory Groups (EAG) to guide WMO DRR Guidelines and Capacity development projects Participating experts from partner agencies EAG on Hazard/Risk Analysis World Bank, UNDP-GRIP, WFP, UN- ISDR, UNFCCC, UNEP, UNESCO- IOC, UNITAR/UNOSAT, OECD, GEM, CRED, Munich Re, Swiss Re, WRN, Experts from Risk Modelling Sectors, ESRI, CIMH, RCCs, NMHS CBS, CCL, CHy, CAgM, CIMO, JCOMM, CAS, Tropical Cyclone Program, First meeting in March/April 2014

17. © World Meteorological Organization Priority Hazards Source: 2006 WMO Country-level DRR survey (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html) Droughts, Flash and river floods, forest and wild fires, heat waves and cold spells, land- and mud-slides, marine and aviation hazards, strong winds and severe storms, tropical cyclones and storm surges Other: volcanic ash transport, air pollution, locust swarms, health epidemics, tsunami, etc…

18. © World Meteorological Organization Other National Agencies Involved in DRR (e.g. Hydrological Services, Ocean Services, Health Services, Space) Global & Regional Specialized Meteorological & Climate Centers (GPC, RSMC and RCC)  Government (national to local)  Socio-economi sectors  Private Sector  NGOs  General Public  Media  Etc... Core Operatioinal Components National Meteorological Service (NMS)  Observing network  Operational Forecasting  Telecommunications  Human Resource  Data Management Systems  Etc... Data, Forecast, Analysis Products & Services for: Quality Managment Systems (QMS) National DRR Stakeholders Requirments Service Delivery Feedback Agreements & SOPs GTS/WIS Agreements & SOPs National DRR Governance and Institutional Frameworks RegionalDRR Governance and Institutional Frameworks National Regional f b a e e d  Risk Analysis  Early Warnnings  Sectoral Planning Disaster Risk Financing and insurance c Weather, Climate and Hydrological Services to support DRR Decision-Making Doc 4.2- Progress Report Para 1 WMO TC’s CBS CCL CHy JCOMM CAS CIMO CAeM CAgM WMO TC’s CAgM CAeM CBS Regional Associations Members

19. © World Meteorological Organization Increasing level of operational coordination with DRM agencies and sectors Increasing Level of operational coordination and cooperation with other national technical and sectoral agencies for early detection, monitoring and development of hazard information Type IType IIType III Hazard fully under the mandate of NMS Hazard under joint mandate of NMS with another technical agency (e.g., NHS) Hazard under mandate of other agencies but NMS contribute e.g. strong winds, strong rainfall, snow/ice, hail, tropical cyclone e.g. floods, landslides, heat/health etc. e.g. locust, health epidemic, man-made hazards Example of cooperation of NMS with technical and DRR stakeholders in context of different hazard types

20. © World Meteorological Organization Facilitating development of products and services for Disaster Risk Reduction Reduction of Risks: Life, economics National Multi-sector Multi-agency coordination and planning at national to local levels DRM and civil protection, agriculture, health, water resource management, infrastructure and planning, insurance and financial markets, etc Research and modeling Observations and data Forecasting and analysis tools Regional aspects Products and Service Delivery International aspects Capacity Building

21. © World Meteorological Organization Risk Assessment and Probabilistic Risk analysis (near real time, statistical, forward looking approaches) Historical Climate and Hazard Data Historical Loss and damage Probabilistic forward-looking Climate and Hazard modeling Exposure and vulnerability development - engineering Probabilistic analysis Statistical with forward looking climate and Hazard Modeling Forward looking Statistical with forward looking exposure/vulnera bility Modeling 1 24 3 © World Meteorological Organization

22. Simplified Schematic: Hazard / Risk Assessment (statistical and forward looking) Hazard Analysis and Mapping Exposure and Vulnerability Potential Loss Estimates Decisions Heavy Precipitation and flood mapping Assets: population density agricultural land urban grid Infrastructure Businesses etc Number of lives at risk $ at risk Destruction of buildings and infrastructure Reduction in crop yields Business interruption etc Need for historical and real time hazard data meteorological, hydrological and climate forecasts and trend analysis Need for historical loss and damage data, Development and engineering information Policy and planning Disaster Risk Financing EWS Sectoral Risk Managment

23. © World Meteorological Organization "Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters, The Economics of Effective Prevention," World Bank & UN (2011) Global Reports on Risk (Socio-Economic Aspects) "2nd Global Assessment Report: Revealing Risk, Redefining Development,” UN (2011) "1st Global Assessment Report: Risk and Poverty in a Changing Climate,” UN (2009) “Natural Disaster Hotspots Case Studies, “World Bank (2006) CRED Annual Disaster Statistic Review Swiss Re Annual Natural Catastrophe and Man-made Disasters Munich Re Annual Review of Natural Catastrophe 3rd Global Assessment Report: From Shared Risk to shared Value,” UN (2013)

24. © World Meteorological Organization Risk Financing Early Warning Systems development and on-going operations Socio-economic sectors: –Land zoning –Infrastructure and urban planning –Financing /Insurance –Agricultural productivity and food security –Tourism –Health epidemics –Water resource management –Transport, etc … Need for risk analysis and integration of risk information in decision support tools (local, national and trans- boundary, regional and global!)

25. © World Meteorological Organization Risk Analysis to Decision Making Data: Hazard, Asset (Exposure), Vulnerability –Data availability, quality, accessibility –Standards Analysis (Sectoral, time and space scales): –Technical tools and methodologies –Human resource/expertise –Computational capacities Integration: From data to risk to decision-making –Institutional cooperation and partnerships R&D in climate forecasting to Operational Systems Infrastructure: from monitoring (data) to information development, management and dissemination

26. © World Meteorological Organization Need for Modernization, Expansion and Sustainability of Meteorological, Hydrological, Climate Observing Networks WMO

27. © World Meteorological Organization Page numberTitle of presentation Need for Modernization, Expansion and Sustainability of Meteorological, Hydrological, Climate Observing Networks WMO c

28. © World Meteorological Organization Data Rescue, Standards and Technical Expertise in Hazard Analysis (Geo referencing loss and damage!!!) Over 80 % of meteorological Services need: Data rescue, and management systems Standards for: Hazard database and metadata Hazard Definition/linkages Analysis and mapping tools Statistical analysis Climate modelling Human expertise Source: 2006 WMO Country-level DRR survey http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html

29. © World Meteorological Organization Open Data Policy and Exchange International data sharing policies facilitated by WMO  Resolution 40 “WMO Policy and Practice for the Exchange of Meteorological and Related Data …” was adopted by 12th WMO Congress in 1995.  Resolution 25 “Exchange of Hydrological Data and Products” was adopted by the 13th WMO Congress in 1999 Challenges with data policy and exchange National security Commercial Not available or need for data rescue Institutional turfs and silos Need for high-level policy discussion within and across governments

30. © World Meteorological Organization Seamless Meteorological and Climate Forecasts and Analysis to support risk analysis and management © World Meteorological Organization

31. Content Impacts of weather-, water-, and climate-related hazards in a changing Climate Background Role of WMO for Development of Guidelines and International Standards About the Workshop –Objectives –Participants –List of documents –Outputs Next Steps

32. © World Meteorological Organization WMO develops standards and technical guidelines … Meteorological, hydrological and climate instrumentation, observing networks, monitoring Meteorological, hydrological and climate related hazards, databases, metadata Forecasting tools (Weather, water and climate) Quality assurance and verification (data, tools, methodologies, etc) International data sharing policies –Resolution 40 “WMO Policy and Practice for the Exchange of Meteorological and Related Data …” was adopted by 12th WMO Congress in 1995. –Resolution 25 “Exchange of Hydrological Data and Products” was adopted by the 13th WMO Congress in 1999”

33. © World Meteorological Organization Global Climate Centres Regional Users Regional Climate Centres Global Users National Climate Centres National Sectoral Users Global Framework for Climate Services To Operational science-based climate information and prediction building on the WMO globally coordinated operational framework

34. © World Meteorological Organization Content Impacts of weather-, water-, and climate-related hazards in a changing Climate Background Role of WMO for Development of Guidelines and International Standards About the Workshop –Objectives –Participants –List of documents –Outputs Next Steps

35. © World Meteorological Organization First Technical Workshop on Standards for Hazard Monitoring, Data, Metadata and Hazard Analysis to Support Risk Assessment and Analysis 10-14 June 2013 WMO HQ, Geneva http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/projects/Thematic/Ha zardRisk/2013-04-TechWks/index_en.html

36. © World Meteorological Organization About the Workshop Objectives (Scoping) Explore considerations and needs for hazard information to conduct risk assessment and analysis –Cascading hazards and geo-referencing of damage and loss data; Document definitions and approaches of the participating Members, similarities and differences among their approaches; Review the mandate and related activities of the relevant WMO Technical Commissions – related to the standardization of definitions, monitoring, detecting, as well as mapping and forecasting tools for different hazards; Explore challenges and opportunities for developing international guidelines, manual and standards in this area, and; Develop recommendations and priorities of action –for consideration of the Management Groups of the WMO Technical Commissions for integration in their work planning and the first meeting of the EAG-HRA,

37. © World Meteorological Organization About the Workshop Participants Several countries, which systematically monitor, maintain databases and analyze hazards, –Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Russian Federation, Switzerland, United States of America, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland; WMO Technical Commissions and Programmes responsible for the development of technical standards and guidelines –CBS, CCL, CHy, JCOMM, CIMO, AgM, TCP Organizations with extensive experience in risk assessment and collection of damage and loss data –Munich Re, CRED, UNISDR,UNDP

38. © World Meteorological Organization About the Workshop Documents Doc. 1: Draft Agenda of the Workshop Doc. 2: Concept Note –Annex I to Doc. 2: Guidelines for Preparation of Country Documents for the First Technical Workshop on Standards for Hazard Monitoring, Databases, Metadata and Analysis Techniques to Support Risk Assessment –Annex II to Doc. 2: Guidelines for Preparation of Technical Commission Documents for the First Technical Workshop on Standards for Hazard Monitoring, Databases, Metadata and Analysis Techniques to Support Risk Assessment Doc. 3: List of Participants. Inf. 1: Logistical Information Note for Participants.

39. © World Meteorological Organization About the Workshop Outputs A comprehensive WMO Technical Report including: (1)All documents, presentations prepared and presented in the workshop as the foundation knowledge underpinning the recommendations –Revised and updated documents to be submitted to WMO by 9 September 2013 for inclusion in the publication (2)A set of recommendations and priorities for action for 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019 timeframes – What specific guidelines and standards for hazard definitions,, monitoring and detection, databases and metadata and hazard analysis and forecasting tools, for weather-, climate- and hydrological hazards

40. © World Meteorological Organization About the Workshop Next Steps Presenting and discussing the report and recommendations to the Presidents and Management Groups of TCs Discussion of the priorities of actions and mechanisms at the Joint President’s of TC Meetings (Jan 2014) First Meeting of Expert Advisory Group on Hazard/Risk (Spring 2014) Work planning and implementation of priorities and deliverables through intra- and inter-commission mechanisms with Risk experts

41. © World Meteorological Organization About the Workshop Agenda Session 1: Opening and introduction Session 2: Risk Analysis and Needs and Requirements for Hazard info –Chair: Angelika Wirtz Session 3: National Experiences and Practices for Monitoring, Detection, Development Of Databases, Metadata and Hazard Analysis –Chair: Graeme Forrester Session 4: Mandates and Relevant Activities of WMO Technical Commissions and Technical Programmes for Development of Guidelines, Manuals and Standards for Monitoring, Detection, Development of Databases, Metadata and Hazard Analysis Session 5: Examples of Other Relevant Activities and Initiatives –Sessions 4 and 5 Chair: Raymond Motha Session 6: Discussions, Priorities and Recommendations Session 7: Synthesis and drafting –Sessions 6 and 7 Co-chaired by Angelika Wirtz, Raymond Motha and Graeme Forrester

42. © World Meteorological Organization Drafting Team Co-chairs: Angelika Wirtz, Raymond Motha and Graeme Forrester Participants (experts from Members, TCs and organizations) WMO Secretariat support

43. © World Meteorological Organization About the Workshop Agenda – Session 2 Issues for discussions: 1) Diversity of disaster risk assessment and analysis stakeholders and their needs (local, national, regional, global, sectoral, etc) to support a diverse range of DRR related decisions. 2) Definitions of hazards and related cascading hazards from risk assessment and analysis perspectives versus meteorological, hydrological and climate perspectives. 3) Importance of hazard definition, data, metadata, analysis and mapping for collection of loss and damage data, risk assessment and risk analysis. 4) Needs and requirements of stakeholders that carry out risk assessment and risk analysis for hazard data, metadata, hazard analysis (historical versus forward looking). 5) Challenges with quality, availability, accessibility of hazard information at national, regional and global levels for risk assessment and risk analysis.

44. © World Meteorological Organization About the Workshop Agenda – Session 3 Issues for discussions: 1) Definitions of hazards (and related cascading hazards) in your country, (from the list provided in the questionnaire) Are there common definitions across the countries represented here? Are the definitions of hazards establish through legal instruments or remain at the discretion of technical agencies? 2) Institutional Aspects: Hazard Types (I, II, IIII) and roles of various agencies in monitoring, detection and maintenance of historical databases, metadata. 3) Institutional cooperation and partnerships among technical agencies for monitoring, detection, collection and development of databases and metadata. (space and in-situ). 4) Practices with development of integrated hazard databases, data management systems, metadata and quality assurance practices for Hazards Type I, II, III. 5) Practices for cooperation with other technical and sectoral agencies to provide hazard data for sectoral and other risk assessment and risk analysis to sectors (services for public and private sector). 6) Challenges in developing and providing systematic hazard information at national level. 7) Latest techniques for hazard analysis (statistical, now-casting and forecasting (short-weather to long- term climate time scales, spatial resolution and downscaling aspects)? 8) Implications of climate variability and climate change for operational hazard analysis. 9) Service delivery models for provision of hazard data, meta data and analysis and advisory services.

45. © World Meteorological Organization About the Workshop Agenda – Session 4 Issues for discussions: 1) Mandate of Technical Commission related to the priority hazards (listed in the questionnaire for the TCs), development of definition, guidelines, manuals and standards for observing networks, historical and real-time data management systems (data, metadata, quality assurance practices), statistical analysis, now–casting and forecasting and projections in context of climate scenarios for hazards (short weather to long-term climate time lead times)? 2) What are the relevant activities of your Technical Commissions work plan to development of guidelines, manuals and standards related to the above issues (issue 1) 3) Definition on hazards developed by the Technical Commissions 4) Are there a list of existing guidelines, manuals and standards relevant to the objectives of this initiative developed in your commission, for what specific application (research, forecasting)? 5) Through what process you identify needs and requirements of new users (in this case the risk assessment and risk analysis community) to guide development of guidelines, manuals and standards in your commission? 6) What are the intra- and inter-commission mechanisms for development of guidelines, manuals and standards that are relevant to the objectives of this initiative? 7) Are the experts with hand-on experience in disaster risk assessment and risk analysis engaged in your Technical Commissions? To what extend you have already, or can engage new representatives from the user community (in this case experts from risk community) in the process of identification of requirements?

46. © World Meteorological Organization About the Workshop Agenda – Session6 and 7 Issues for discussions (Session 6): Building on the priorities, needs and requirements for hazard information to support risk assessment and risk analysis, practices of Members and current work plan and activities of the Technical Commissions, develop recommendations for priority of actions to be carried out through intra- and inter-commission working arrangements with this target users community to develop the missing guidelines, manuals and standards with deliverables and timelines for this year based on what is available for the TCs, and then in 2, 4, and 6 years timeframes (2013, 2015, 2017, 2019). Issues for discussions (Session 7): Recommendations for: Priority Hazards and related cascading hazards Deliverables and timelines regarding development of hazard definition, and guidelines, manuals and standards for hazard monitoring, detection, historical and real-time databases, metadata, mapping, analysis, now-casting, forecasting techniques (short-term to long-term climate timeframes) Needs for strengthening intra-, and inter-commission mechanisms to address these issues How to engage the risk assessment and risk analysis experts in the TC working arrangements Other considerations and issues

47. © World Meteorological Organization For more information please contact: Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief Disaster Risk Reduction Programme World Meteorological Organization Tel. +41.22.730.8006 Email. MGolnaraghi@wmo.int Thank You http://www.wmo.int/disasters

48. © World Meteorological Organization Capacity Assessment of NMHS Source: 2006 WMO Country-level DRR survey (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html) 70% need amendments of national policies and legislation 67% need modernization of meteorological infrastructure (e.g., observation networks, forecasting, telecommunication, data rescue,…) 80% need technical and management training 80% of need multi-sectoral institutional partnerships, coordination Meteorological infrastructure/systems… high return on investment! Source: “Natural Hazard, UnNatural Disaster, Economics of Effective Prevention,” World Bank and United Nation’s Report (2010) Global Survey of Scientific and Technical Capacities in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction

49. © World Meteorological Organization South East Europe (2007- present) 8 countries South East Asia (2010 – present) 6 countries: Lao, Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia Central America and Caribbean (2010- present ) Costa Rica and Caribbean Islands Comprehensive Capacity Development DRR and Adaptation Projects Underway (Doc 4.2 Progress Report Para 3) Haiti 2010 with Members & UN Partners: WMO, World Bank, UN-ISDR, UNDP, Regional Socio-economic Groupings and regional DRR agencies, Regional Centers, WMO Regional Association, NMHS, National DRM agencies and economic line ministries GCC Discussion underway 6 Countries Africa Discussion underway AMCOMET October 2012

50. © World Meteorological Organization WMO DRR Programme Website WMO http://www.wmo.int/disasters http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/index_en.html Thematic Projects National / Regional Capacity Development