1. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Climate Change: A Context for Reflection on the Responsibilities of the Faith Community Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM Professor of Atmospheric Science Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 gstakle@iastate.edu St Andrews Lutheran Church, 12 November 2006

2. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Outline  Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide  Radiative forcing  Simulations of global climate and future climate change  “Dangerous anthropogenic inter- ference with the climate system”?  “Climate surprises”  Implications for the Faith Community

3. CO 2, CH 4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.

4. CO 2, CH 4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843. Natural cycles

5. CO 2, CH 4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843. Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years

6. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

7. 2006

8. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2006 2040

9. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature “Business as Usual” (fossil intensive) 2100

10. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature “Business as Usual” (fossil intensive) 2100 ?

13. Global fossil fuel CO 2 emissions with division into portions that remain airborne or are soaked up by the ocean and land. Source: Hansen and Sato, PNAS, 101, 16109, 2004.

14. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

16. Climate forcing agents in the industrial era. “Effective” forcing accounts for “efficacy” of the forcing mechanism Source: Hansen et al., JGR, 110, D18104, 2005.

17. Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004 Mt. Pinatubo (1991) El Chichon (1982) Agung, 1963

18. Global mean surface temperature change based on surface air measurements over land and SSTs over ocean Source: Update of Hansen et al., JGR, 106, 23947, 2001; Reynolds and Smith, J. Climate, 7, 1994; Rayner et al., JGR, 108, 2003.

19. Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

21. Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

24. Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.

25. Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

26. The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions

27. Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Adaptation Necessary Mitigation Possible

28. Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

29. Climate Change Projected for 2100 Rapid Economic Growth Slower Economic Growth

30. (B) Ocean heat gain in the top 750 m of world ocean. Source: Hansen et al., Science, 308, 1431, 2005. (A) Net Radiation at top of atmosphere in climate simulations.

31. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

32. Tropical Weather Weather Underground: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

33. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Katrina_vs_sea_surface_height.JPG

34. Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688. Sea-surface temperature VV Tropical Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI) V

35. Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688. Sea-surface temperature VV Tropical Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI) V

36. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS  140-page synthesis report released in November 2004.  Main science report imminent (chapters available electronically at www.acia.uaf.edu).www.acia.uaf.edu  Concerns over wide-ranging changes in the Arctic. –Rising temperatures –Rising river flows –Declining snow cover –Increasing precipitation –Thawing permafrost –Diminishing late and river ice –Melting glaciers –Melting Greenland Ice Sheet –Retreating summer sea ice –Rising sea level –Ocean salinity changes  Species at risk include polar bears, seals, walruses, Arctic fox, snowy owl, and many species of mosses and lichens Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) Sources: Claire Parkinson and Robert Taylor

37. NASA photographs show the minimm Arctic sea ice concentration in 1979 at left and in 2003.Satellite passive microwave data since 1970s indicate a 3% decrease per decade in arctic sea ice extent.

38. Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap has shrunk more than 20 percent. (Illustration from NASA) ( http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qthinice.asp)

39. Source: Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).www.acia.uaf.edu

40. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Associated Climate Changes  Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr  Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks in N. Hemisphere  Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased in extent by 10-15%  Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar, mountainous regions  Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N. Hemisphere  Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents  Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges  Snow cover decreased by 10%  Earlier flowering dates  Coral reef bleaching Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

41. For the Midwest  Warming will be greater for winter than summer  Warming will be greater at night than during the day  A 3 o F rise in summer daytime temperature triples the probability of a heat wave  Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer now than in 1950)  More precipitation  Likely more soil moisture in summer  More rain will come in intense rainfall events  Higher stream flow, more flooding

42. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Climate Surprises  Breakdown of the ocean thermohaline circulation (Greenland melt water)  Break-off of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

45. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m (~3 ft) rise in sea level Kennedy Space Center Miami

46. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS What Constitutes “Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with the Climate System”? James Hansen, Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies: *Radiative forcing limit: 1 Watt/ m 2 *1 o C additional rise in global mean temperature

47. Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004 Mt. Pinatubo (1991) El Chichon (1982) Agung, 1963

48. Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004 Mt. Pinatubo (1991) El Chichon (1982) Agung, 1963 Imbalance = 1 Watt/m 2 in 2018

49. Increasing Melt Area on Greenland 2002 all-time record melt area Melting up to elevation of 2000 m 16% increase from 1979 to 2002 70 meters thinning in 5 years Satellite-era record melt of 2002 was exceeded in 2005. Source: Waleed Abdalati, Goddard Space Flight Center

50. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

51. Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m (~3 ft) rise in sea level Kennedy Space Center Miami Impact of a 1-m rise in sea level on low-lying areas Source: Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).www.acia.uaf.edu Projected sea-level rise In 21st century: 0.5 to 1.0 m

54. http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/37.htm

55. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Rawls and Brundtland: Brundtland Report Concept of Sustainability: “Institutions are sustainable when they effectively meet the needs of present generations without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs.”

57. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Ten Things You can do to Slow Global Warming*  Change a light  Drive less  Recycle more  Check your tires  Use less hot water  Avoid products with a lot of packaging  Adjust your thermostat  Plant a tree  Turn off electrical and electronic devices * From “An Inconvenient Truth (www.climatecrisis.net)www.climatecrisis

58. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?  Care for creation - what does this mean in a global context?

59. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?  Care for creation - what does this mean in a global context?  Faith community is joined across space and time –We have a legacy passed down for the last two centuries –What legacy do we leave?

60. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?  Care for creation - what does this mean in a global context?  Faith community is joined across space and time –We have a legacy passed down for the last two centuries –What legacy do we leave?  How will future generations (those whose futures we are now constraining) view us and our stewardship of the planet?

61. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?  Responsibility to the natural world

62. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?  Responsibility to the natural world  Responsibility to other human beings

63. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?  Responsibility to the natural world  Responsibility to other human beings –International justice

64. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?  Responsibility to the natural world  Responsibility to other human beings –International justice –Inter-generational equity

65. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?  Responsibility to the natural world  Responsibility to other human beings –International justice –Inter-generational equity  From those to whom much has been given will much be expected

66. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?  Responsibility to the natural world  Responsibility to other human beings –International justice –Inter-generational equity  From those to whom much has been given will much be expected –Resources

67. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?  Responsibility to the natural world  Responsibility to other human beings –International justice –Inter-generational equity  From those to whom much has been given will much be expected –Resources –Knowledge

68. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS For More Information  For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have seen in this presentation, see my online Global Change course: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse  Contact me directly: gstakle@iastate.edu