1. Need for National Integrated Assessment Models for Adaptation and Emphasis on Local Coping and Indigenous Technologies
Dr. Paul V. Desanker
Penn State University, USA & Miombo Network (Malawi)

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Self Introduction
Assoc Prof of Geography, Penn State University, USA
Founding member and Coordinator, IGBP/LUCC/START Miombo Network since 1994
CLA IPCC TAR WGII Africa Chapter
LDC NAPA Technical Development Team
Member of IPCC TGCIA
Research on integrated assessment of climate change, in particular, extremes, in southern African Miombo region (Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique)
Tool development for rapid assessment of vulnerability and adaptation (PRIVA) in LDCs under NAPA or at any level
Research on Land use/land cover change and impacts, and role in adaptation
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3. Integrated Assessment
Past models mostly global, and emphasize impacts conditional on emission pathways – adaptations not explicit
Global nature require that developing regions be aggregated, into one or very few subregions for Africa despite large size and great diversity in factors controlling vulnerability
Global integrated assessment models have been very useful in framing the climate change issue, such as the comprehensive assessments of the IPCC such as under SRES (IPCC 2000)
Global conclusions not necessarily compatible with regional and national conclusions
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4. Global Versus National or Local
Global conclusions not necessarily compatible with regional and national conclusions
For example, take Food Security, globally can conclude that the world will produce enough food to feed its population HOWEVER, the conclusions are very different for national and local levels.
And for water, modeling studies that look at major river flows are not applicable to major water requirements where reliance is on underground water or non-river based sources
In any case, Africa short-changed by studies that can not resolve national levels; as well as due consideration of other problems facing Africa: health, poverty, globalization, subsidies, etc
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5. Needs for Integrated Assessments in Africa
Assessment of impacts needed at local to national level, including explicit representation of costs and benefits to guide decision making
This is not the same as re-framing global to continental assessments at the national and local level
Important decisions are made at global (in relation to the UNFCCC process) or at the national level for national planning and local implementation
This requires that information be produced for each country in relation to local, regional and global linkages as appropriate
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6. What is the Miombo Network doing about this?
Case studies of local coping to floods and droughts – documenting experiences and results
Developing participatory rapid integrated V&A (PRIVA) for use in NAPA
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7. Linking impacts to vulnerability in PRIVA
V(climatic hazard) =
F { Risk (climatic hazard) ; Impact Potential ( Sensitivity (hazard) Coping Range (system_f(climate)); Coping Ability (determinants|hazard)) }
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8. Framing Adaptation in PRIVA in terms of Eqn 2
Define adaptation to minimize vulnerability through any of the following:
By reducing the risk associated with hazards by manipulating components of risk
(Removing/reducing hazard through mitigation is outside domain of analysis for the LDCs)
Reduce impact potential through manipulation of the system dependence on climate (cropping manipulations for instance)
By increasing coping ability (e.g addressing key determinants such as poverty, access to financial resources, etc)
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NAPA Process (from NAPA Primer, Desanker et al. 2003)
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Climate Change Extremes and Coping Range
Climatic
Attribute
(X)
Time (years)
Current Climate
Changed Climate
Transition period –
NAPA domain
Current Coping Range
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11. Cascading or nested spatial scales
Apply PRIVA in successive spatial scales until issue is manageable – in relation to stakeholders, or in terms of funding limitations
For example, apply at national level to identify/select most vulnerable regions and systems or sectors or communities (“hotspots”)
Can then re-apply PRIVA for the selected regions
Iterate until can identify clear actions (adaptation activities) that are easily implementable and address specific communities/locations (action-orientedness, etc)
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12. Adaptation – a local level process
Makes sense when localized in implementation, while ideally taking into account (unknown) global forcing of climate hazards
Inherent uncertainty in climate projections implies decision making in adaptation not trivial: need application of appropriate decision frameworks
For the short term, expect transient changes, so enhance coping as one strategy
major improvements in predictions/projects to identify general direction of hazard and risk
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13. Local Coping and Indigenous Technologies
Our studies in Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi and Mozambique under AIACC, indicate
Diversity of local coping to immediate problems associated with erratic rains, persistent droughts, increased flooding, etc.
Examples include staggered planting of main food crops to improve likelihood of a good harvest; change in crop species planted; shift to buying food versus local production; water harvesting techniques
Most of these decisions made at community level without comprehensive assessments of costs and benefits, or explicit consideration of what future changes might be
Danger that climate will continue to change, and may results in total breakdown of local production systems. NEED MORE CASE STUDIES TO INTEGRATED CONVENTIONAL AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE
Elsewhere, indigenous technologies exist to cope with persistent adverse climatic conditions.
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14. Qanat: (Kariz/ Surangam/ Foggara/ Falaj)
Centre for Sustainable Development
CENESTA, Iran
M.R HAERI

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Tausug house with rainwater collection system, Philipines

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Priorities for improving the state of knowledge & information exchange in Integrated Assessment
Need data on costs and benefits of specific adaptation activities including EIAs to evaluate long-term sustainability
Need more implementations of national integrated models to address adaptation planning, to include due consideration of policy issues, synergies with other MEAs, multiple stresses, etc
Need regional balance in discussion and development of these tools and analyses
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Relevance to the work of the SBSTA, and what specific actions or activities from this body could help address the issues 1/3.
Encourage targeted research in the development of regional integrated models that emphasize vulnerability, risk assessment and local community needs.
Encourage sharing of knowledge and experiences with integrated assessment for the developing countries, especially at the regional level through regional workshops
Regional networks are invaluable in reaching national and regional decision makers, managers and scientists, there is need to encourage work of these networks and encourage development of new networks where none exist.
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Relevance to the work of the SBSTA, and what specific actions or activities from this body could help address the issues 2/3.
Facilitate exchange of experiences on local coping and indigenous technologies especially between countries/regions along a path of possible future change: e.g. historically flooded areas with new areas subject to repeated floods; also for droughts
Facilitate EIA of technologies and activities especially for adaptation to safeguard against mal-adaptation and to build sustainable adaptation solutions
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Relevance to the work of the SBSTA, and what specific actions or activities from this body could help address the issues 3/3.
While no one-size-fits all, there are a small set of adaptations to floods and droughts – such as changing crop types and planting;
there is need to thoroughly assess how this can be done effectively taking into account uncertainties in climate predictions (seasonal and long-term); risks in decision making at local and national levels, strategies to minimize risk of failure, research needed to ensure proper hybrids and provenances of species are available (do this beyond spatial assessments of crop suitability that are easily done using GIS),
and go beyond generic prescriptions such as “change crops” as an adaptation.
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