1. Neil Ferry Manager, Emissions Projections Department of the Environment and Heritage Australian Greenhouse Office

2. Mitigation analysis in Aus Why mitigation analysis is done –International reporting –Projections context Commitment to meet Australia’s 108% Kyoto target Estimating measures impact critical –Basis for policy To meet Kyoto target Longer term policy

3. Australian Context Energy intensive economy Committed to 108% Kyoto Target Extensive range of mitigation policies Wide range of emissions modelling groups –ABARE –CoPS –McKibbin’s MSG

4. 2004 emissions projections 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1990199520002005201020152020 Mt C0 2 e 108% of 1990 emission level 'With measures' emissions Impact of abatement measures BAU

5. Key Features of Aust Projections: Multi models for key sectors (esp SE) –Reflects diversity of views –Currently four SE models used (two top down,two bottom up) –Reconciling different models results an issue –Complicates mitigation estimation

6. Policy modelling Generally done separately to projections, though often same models and using projections baseline –Eg ABARE’s GTEM, MSG’s G CUBED (GE models) –Bottom up analysis of program options

7. NM Projection (BAU) and measures Aust initially modelled NM (BAU) and measures separately Until 2004, SE modellers only included BAU/NM and a few measures –WM was produced by separately adjusting for measures estimates ‘Only 9 countries report (full) NM/BAU’ Important to avoid double counting between BAU and measures

8. Top Down (GE models) Useful for evaluating economic instruments Stronger on demand side than energy supply system –Assume ‘efficient markets’ Different models give very different results Need to understand each model’s assumptions and the exact scenario

9. Bottom up models Better understanding of energy supply Understanding program/project specifics can be more important than the modelling –Rebound etc can be second order Cost or take-up assumptions critical –‘No regrets/ ‘free lunch’ issue –Need to understand barriers to changing behaviour Beyond BAU issue –Measures optimism

10. ‘Comparing approaches?’ Value of reconciling – ‘Back of the envelope’ estimates [‘BOTE analysis’] with – formal modelling estimates Model estimates should ‘make sense’ compared to other studies

11. Some key challenges Modelling ‘horses for courses’ Model uncertainty Program specifics crucial Avoiding ‘measures optimism’ Beyond BAU issue Check with BOTE analysis

12. Aust Projections and Measures Products ‘Tracking to the Kyoto Target 2004’ -plus sectoral projections papers At:http:// www.greenhouse.gov.au/proje ctions/index.htmlhttp:// www.greenhouse.gov.au/proje ctions/index.html

13. Diversity in 2003 SE Projection

14. 2004 (electricity BAU) projections much closer