1. Reflections on Key Messages in Recent Reports amit.garg@risoe.dk

2.  IPCC AR4, WG-I: Understanding and attributing climate change Global scientific community is more than 90% certain that global warming is due to anthropogenic activities Awaiting WG-II report  Stern Review Impacts of climate change are not evenly distributed – the poorest countries and people will suffer earliest and most. BAU climate change will reduce welfare by an amount equivalent to a reduction in consumption per head of between 5 and 20%  The accountability framework shifts from a Welfare framework to a Liability framework Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation

3.  Reducing energy poverty, and enhanced electricity access for developmental goals is projected to increase electricity requirements during 2007-2030 in developing countries  Coal based power is projected to remain the primary source for countries like China, India and South Africa - mainly due to energy security considerations  Coal use becomes cleaner in 2030 under BAU, but not clean enough  Climate security would need much deeper cuts in global GHG emissions by 2050 Energy efficiency Decarbonizing energy CO 2 capture and storage Energy Security and Climate Security

4. GDP becomes less energy intensive, with China and India leading the way Energy and CO 2 emissions do not decouple under BAU scenario Decoupling Economy, Energy and Carbon

5.  CO 2 and local pollutant emissions (e.g. SO 2, NO X and particulates) decouple in BAU  Many conjoint mitigation opportunities exist. However some are expensive than those for direct mitigation of local pollution.  Who pays for the cost differential? Decoupling Global and Local Emissions

6. Sustainable Development Indicators for China

7. Sustainable Development Indicators for India

8. The ‘non-climate’ route for international climate change policy making and negotiations is important Adaptation to climate change impacts is crucial for developing countries Aligning development and climate change solutions is possible, and may be more cost-effective Large growth in energy consumption is expected. Due to energy security and costs this implies increasing CO 2 intensity of energy consumption GHG emission reduction policies need special consideration beyond BAU Conclusions

9.  Adapt as we negotiate People-centric adaptation in the short-term “Adaptation products” needed Technology - transfer and cooperation Financial resources Align development and climate policies  Abate as we negotiate Fossil based generation capacities are being added now, avoid lock-ins Expand cooperative technology RD&D Expand global cooperative mechanisms Move beyond a “mere” environmental issue Dual 2-Track Processes

10. Thanks