Presentation on theme: "Based on False Assumptions The modelling assumes comparable carbon pricing in other major economies from 2015-16 It is stated as an assumption of the modelling."— Presentation transcript:
Based on False Assumptions The modelling assumes comparable carbon pricing in other major economies from It is stated as an assumption of the modelling that “global co-ordinated action emerges from 2016” and “an equilibrium global permit price emerges to clear the global permit market”. “By 2016, a more coordinated international policy regime allows countries to trade either bilaterally or through a common central market. As a result, a harmonised world carbon price emerges in 2016”.
Based on False Assumptions The government neglected to factor in cost to its own services. Hospitals, Schools, Transport Hospitals, charities and small business will not receive any compensation Some parts of the modelling use a price of $23/tonne others only $20/tonne Modelling indicates a price rise of $350/tonne by 2050 yet does not illustrate any compensation increases over the same time
Is the World Moving to Tax Carbon? “...no country currently imposes an economy- wide tax on greenhouse gas emissions or has in place an economy-wide ETS” Productivity Commission Report, June 2011 Australia already rates as around “mid-range” in terms of resources allocated to abatement, and abatement achieved, without a carbon tax Productivity Commission Report, June 2011
United States “In the United States, although we haven’t passed as you know, what we call a cap and trade system, an exchange, what we have done is for example taken steps to double fuel efficiency standards on cars which will have an enormous impact on removing carbon from the atmosphere.” Barrack Obama
Canada “Certainly not in Canada or the United States.” Canadian Foreign Minister John Baird
And the Government knows it… “You have to look at the fact that Japan, Canada and Russia have said that they won’t be in a second commitment period.” Greg Combet, Durban, Nov. 2011
European Trading Scheme
Cost Per Person
Current Prices - $AUD
What the Experts Say “If you want me to tell you my view, it is the worst piece of economic reform I have ever seen in my life in Australia” David Murray, Former Head of Future Fund "a massive hit to the competitiveness of Australian business“ Graham Kraehe, Former RBA Board Member, Chairman BlueScope Steel “I think (forecasts) are underestimating the inflationary effects of the carbon tax. If you tax your comparative advantage you know it’s going to cause inflation.” Prof. Warwick McKibbin, Former RBA Board Member
Some Key Facts Under the modelling Australia’s emissions will still go up. In order to reach targets about $3.5 billion will be given to foreign carbon traders in 2020 and $57 billion by Access Economics estimated that a carbon price of $26 a tonne would cost around 126,000 jobs by 2020 – mostly in regional Australia.