1. RIP cigarettes Reduced Ignition Propensity Cigarettes – An Introduction Meeting of the GPSD Committee 15 November 2006, Brussels J. Vogelgesang, SANCO.B.3

2. RIP cigarettes The issue Burning cigarettes may cause fires when left carelessly unattended 1,000 fatalities every year in the EU as an estimated minimum 1 Victims are also non-smokers including children and fire-fighters 1 The ASPECT Consortium. Tobacco or Health in the European Union. Past, present and future. European Commission, 2004.

3. RIP cigarettes What is a RIP cigarette? A RIP cigarette … normally stops burning when left unattended is NOT a fire-”safe” cigarette may contribute to reducing the estimated 1,000 annual fatalities from cigarette fires in the EU

4. RIP cigarettes How to achieve RIP? Ultra-thin concentric bands (« speed bumps ») in the cigarette paper restrict oxygen access to the burning end of the cigarette are 6 mm wide and spaced by 20 to 30 mm approximately « Speed bump » production technology is indeed available. No chemical additives necessary

5. RIP cigarettes How to test RIP? 1. Cigarette extinction test Tests the cigarette’s capacity to go out/prevent a fire. Burning cigarette is placed on 10 layers of standard filter paper: Does it burn through the full length? Out of 40 test cigarettes, 10 may burn through.

6. RIP cigarettes How to test RIP? (cont’d) Extinction test standardised in US standard ASTM E2187-04 Used in all legislations where RIP cigarettes are or will be required: USA: New York, Vermont in force. California, Illinois, New Hampshire, Massachussetts: In force as of 1 January 2008 at the latest

7. RIP cigarettes How to test RIP? (cont’d) Canada: RIP requirement in force since 1 October 2005 Australia: In preparation. Public consultation on ASTM standard closed on 6 October 2006.

8. RIP cigarettes How to test RIP? (cont’d) 2. Mock-up ignition test Tests the cigarette’s capacity to ignite a fire. Burning cigarette placed on a simulated piece of furniture: Does it ignite a fire/lead to smouldering?

9. RIP cigarettes How to test RIP? (cont’d) Mock-up test very delicate: Provides results, but difficult to carry out in a standardised way No standard simulated furniture available Real-world furniture fabrics change all the time: A realistic simulated furniture would require adaptation all the time.

10. RIP cigarettes Situation in the Member States and Norway Information transmitted to SANCO in late 2005 and in 2006 Cigarette-related fires registered in some Member States only - no data from several large Member States Detailed fire cause not always entirely clear: Cigarette left alone or cigarette stub thrown away?

11. RIP cigarettes Situation in the Member States... (cont’d) Per year Figures cover the years...FiresDeathsInjuredMaterial damage, mio € CZ2003 - 20041.03619431,30 DK2004 - 2005 42 EL1999 - 20042.089 EE20042516442 HU1998 - 2004587 LV2004 - 200665080530,24 LT2002 - 20041.079102 NL2001 - 20054615504,34 PT20048 8 SK2001 - 2005 15130,33 SI2000 - 2004128 FIAverages provided.70030 3,00 SE2000 - 2004 32 UK20034.2001251.400 Norway2004 - 2005579 3,95 In the above countries 11.2465231.60913,16

12. RIP cigarettes Impact of a RIP requirement in 14 MSs and Norway Based on Health Canada approach Baseline scenario 1, 2 : Annually... 11,000 fires 520 deaths and 1,600 injuries €13 million material damage 1 14 MSs: CZ, DK, EL, EE, HU, LV, LT, NL, PT, SK, SI, FI, SE, UK 2 Health Canada approach: http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/hl- vs/pubs/tobac-tabac/rias-reir/index_e.html#description

13. RIP cigarettes Reduction of fires Scenario 1: 68% reduction of fires, etc., to take into account that furniture may ignite more easily than ASTM test indicates (75%) Scenario 2: 34% reduction of fires, etc., to account of easily ignitable fabrics, paper in paper in bins, air flows, etc. Impact of a RIP requirement for 14 MSs and Norway (cont’d) Based on Health Canada approach

14. RIP cigarettes Benefits through RIP cigarettes Scenario 1 (68% reduction): Prevention of... 7,500 fires 350 fatalities and 1,100 injuries €9 million damage Scenario 2 (34% reduction) Impact of a RIP requirement for 14 MSs and Norway (cont’d) Based on Health Canada approach

15. RIP cigarettes Tentative extrapolation to 25 MSs and Norway Baseline scenario: Annually... 38,000 fires 1,900 deaths and 7,000 injuries € 140 million damage Scenario 1 (68% reduction): Prevention of... 26,000 fires 1,300 deaths and 4,700 injuries € 93 million damage Scenario 2 (34% reduction) Impact of a RIP requirement for 14 MSs and Norway (cont’d) Based on Health Canada approach

16. RIP cigarettes Economic impact If compliance cost entirely absorbed by cigarette manufacturers: Reduction of operating profits by 2.9 – 5.9% If costs entirely on prices: Price increase of cigarettes of 0.2 – 0.4% With price elasticity of demand of -0.4 Price increase of cigarettes of 0.08 – 0.16% Reduction of manufacturers’ operating profits by 0.08 – 0.16% Impact Assessment for 14 MSs and Norway (cont’d) Based on Health Canada approach

17. RIP cigarettes Common arguments against RIP The ASTM cigarette extinction test is not a real-world test, but the mock-up test is. Comments: Good correlation between extinction and mock- up tests; Extinction test reproducible over 8 years; Mock-up test very delicate to carry out according to in-depth evaluation during 10 years ; No standard materials for mock-up test available; Furniture market and fabrics changing permanently: Standard to be adapted regularly?

18. RIP cigarettes New York fire statistics show no effect of RIP requirement. Comments: Preliminary reduction of 30%. To be observed further. Common arguments against RIP (cont’d)

19. RIP cigarettes Common arguments against RIP (cont’d) No information available on changes in smokers’ behaviour. Comments: Comparison of cigarette sales in NY State before and after RIP requirement: No change. Comparison of cigarette sales in NY State with sales in surrounding States, before and after RIP requirement: No change.

20. RIP cigarettes Longer term health implications of RIP cigarettes unknown. Comments: 2005 study: A few toxic smoke compounds increased by less than 20 %. No effect on the already high toxicity of cigarette smoke. Common arguments against RIP (cont’d)

21. RIP cigarettes Consumers could mistakenly consider RIP cigarettes as being fire-’safe’. Comments: Consumer information and education necessary, as for any new product. Common arguments against RIP (cont’d)

22. RIP cigarettes ‘Coal drop-off’ from RIP cigarettes has lead to court action. Comments: ‘Coal drop-off’ may burn small holes in fine cloth, but hazard negligible compared to a burning cigarette. Common arguments against RIP (cont’d)

23. RIP cigarettes RIP cigarette paper is not available in sufficient quantities and costs 5 to 10 times the price of conventional paper Comments: Industry: RIP paper available in sufficient quantities in the EU-25 in 3 to 5 years Canada RIA: Price increase of less than 0.2% expected Common arguments against RIP (cont’d)

24. RIP cigarettes A RIP requirement for the EU? Is action necessary at EU level? To mandate a standard on RIP cigarettes?

25. RIP cigarettes Thank you for your attention.