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Dr. Alexey Gromov Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy Moscow, Russia World Energy - 2050 The 6 TH Civilization Forum within the UN Conference.

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Presentation on theme: "Dr. Alexey Gromov Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy Moscow, Russia World Energy - 2050 The 6 TH Civilization Forum within the UN Conference."— Presentation transcript:

1 Dr. Alexey Gromov Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy Moscow, Russia World Energy The 6 TH Civilization Forum within the UN Conference on Sustainable Development RIO+ 20 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, June 15, 2012

2 The goals and tasks of the study Our goal is comprehensive, long-term and non-inertial forecast of world energy development in the light of revealed today energy and technological trends, the relationship of economy, energy and society, and the likely recurrence of crises before : current situation By 2030: dominance of the fossil fuels is likely to continue By 2050: possibility of profound changes in world energy mix The probability of breaking up of current trends and profound changes in the global energy mix may have a powerful impact on the Russian economy and energy sector through the situation on foreign markets and energy technologies 2

3 New global challenges and risks Geopolitics The Arab revolutions Geopolitical crisis in the Middle East The threat of a new oil shock The problem of energy security Global economy The sharp rise in oil prices A new wave of economic crisis Government programs to reduce dependence on energy imports Technology Shale gas revolution Energy Revolution in transportation (hybrids, electric vehicles) Radiation accident at NPP "Fukushima-1" Smart Energy 3

4 Comparison with forecasts of other research organisations Global primary energy consumption by 2050, bln toe Consensus forecast of energy future forecasts High uncertainty World consumption of primary energy billion toe in 2050 Proportions of the consumption of coal and gas from 2.5:1 by Shell to 1:2.5 by IEA The share of nuclear energy from 3.7% to 15.1% Reducing the share of oil from 35% to 25% The growth of biomass consumption from 7.4% to 15% Increase in the share of RES from 6% to 17-22% 4

5 Data Analysis of trends Resource and environmental constraints Technology foresight Model Scenarios of global development The simulations on models GEM and MACRO Accounting for cycles and crises Findings Interpretation of results Key possibilities and risk View from Russia Methodology The scenario is the assemblage point of demographic, economic, technological, political, social, cultural, environmental and energy trends Not just an extrapolation of existing trends, but analysis of conflicts between them and the assessment of the prospects of their breakup 5

6 OilGas & nuclear Electric World & Renewables Coal Global primary energy consumption, bln toe Cyclical crises as a point of scenario bifurcation Continuation of the pre-crisis growth path Inhibition of growth and stagnation Fact 6 Crisis of the 2010th Crisis of the 1930th Crisis of the 1970th

7 Key characteristics of the scenarios in the World Energy Reference scenarioStagnation scenarioInnovative scenario Energy-intensiveEnergy-savingEnergy-efficient Carbon-intensiveRenewables and gasRenewables and nuclear Geopolitical rivalry and economic competition Global climate and energy policy The innovative competition and technology Complex regionalization of economy and energy sector Slowing globalizationResource globalization and technological globalization High growth of global primary energy consumption Slowing growth of global primary energy consumption Shift from commodities market to the services and technologies market High oil prices and heyday of oil business The stagnation of oil business The sunset of oil business 7  Инновационное соперничество  Strategies of countries will be determined by different speed of transition to an innovative energy sector  World will split into innovative energy zone and traditional fuel energy zone  The innovative competition Russia needs to develop its own advanced strategy taking into account the energy agenda of

8 Key findings 8

9 By 2030 the peak of global industrialization will be passed Global primary energy consumption, bln toe Source: WEO 2010, China’s Energy and Carbon Emissions Outlook to 2050, Institute of Energy Strategy Primary energy consumption in China, bln toe The gap between the western way of development and the possible way of China Proximity of scenarios due to compensation of GDP growth by increasing energy efficiency 9 Fact OECD Reference scenario, OECD Stagnation scenario, OECD Innovative scenario, OECD Fact non-OECD Reference scenario, non-OECD Stagnation scenario, non-OECD Innovative scenario, non-OECD Innovative scenario Stagnation scenario Reference scenario Fact

10  By 2050 global primary energy consumption will rise times  The share of RES in the structure of the global energy mix will reach %  The share of oil will drop to 29-16%, an absolute reduction is possible  Gas consumption will grow  High uncertainty about nuclear power remains bln toe Shift in the global energy mix to local fuels , Innovative scenario 2050, Stagnation scenario 2050, Reference scenario Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Large hydro Renewables

11 World energy sector will shift to resource regionalization and technological globalization Share of international trade share in global consumption  The peak of international trade share in global energy consumption will be passed by 2030  In place of the now dominant resource globalization will come resource regionalization  A fundamental factor in the resource regionalization will be the shift in energy mix to local fuels, including renewables  With the resource regionalization will increase the importance of technological and organizational globalization 11 Reference scenario, oil Reference scenario, gas Stagnation scenario, oil Stagnation scenario, gas Innovative scenario, oil Innovative scenario, gas

12 Shift from power energy to smart energy Intelligence Systematic character Environment- friendliness Smart grids Energy saving Targeted delivery of energy Technologies of accumulation of power Decentralization of power capacities Electricity systems of new generation Renewable Energy Alternative fuels for transport Carbon markets The shift from energy commodities market to the energy services and technologies market Energy commodities market 2010 Energy service market 2030 Energy technology market 2050

13 The end of oil era is possible… Потребление нефти, млн т The crisis in oil demand  The peak of world oil consumption will not have been passed up to 2050 ONLY in the reference scenario  In the stagnation scenario, the peak will take place around 2040, and in innovation - around 2030  Revolutionary changes in the transport sector are possible: electric and hybrid vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, gas and biogas , Innovative scenario 2050, Stagnation scenario 2050, Reference scenario Motor vehicle Electricity & heating Others Other transport Chemicals 2050, Innovative scenario 2050, Stagnation scenario 2050, Reference scenario EU Russia Middle East US China Other non-OECD Other OECD India Oil consumption, mln t

14 Will the Golden Age of Gas come?  Rapid growth of gas consumption, especially in the saturated markets of Asia  Share of unconventional gas will grow, including gas hydrates  The integration of regional gas markets through the LNG flows  The evolution of pricing in the gas market  The shift from the "geopolitics of oil" to the "geopolitics of gas” 14 Gas consumption, bcm Innovative scenario Stagnation scenario Reference scenario EU China US India Other OECDRussia Other non-OECD

15 World energy sector will move to the «electric world» *1000 bln kW-h , Innovative scenario 2050, Stagnation scenario 2050, Reference scenario 2050, Innovative scenario 2050, Stagnation scenario 2050, Reference scenario *1000 bln kW-h EUUSOther OECDRussiaChinaIndiaOther non-OECD OilGasCoalNuclearLarge hydroRenewables

16 Reference scenario Stagnation scenario Innovative scenario Strategies of key actors in different scenarios  Geopolitical rivalry  Three strategies - control over demand (EU), control over supply (OPEC, China, Russia), the control of transit and trade (United States, transit countries)  Different ways of adapting to a new global climate and energy policy  The role of resource and geopolitical factors will decline  The role of legal and environmental factors will increase  Conflicts in the regulation  Strategies of countries will be determined by different speed of transition to an innovative energy sector  World will split into innovative energy zone and traditional fuel energy zone  The innovative competition Russia needs to develop its own advanced strategy taking into account the energy agenda of

17 Thank you for your attention Alexey GROMOV Deputy General Director Institute of Energy Strategy, Moscow The Energy of the Future in our Hands


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