1. Introduction to Value-Added Data Dr Robert Clark

2. Theory and Stats bits…

3. . Trend Line/Regression Line Measuring Value-Added – Terminology BASELINE SCORE -ve VA +ve VA Residuals VA Exam grade

4. Measuring Value-Added – An Example Low AbilityAverage AbilityHigh Ability Baseline Score A* U B C D E F G Result Aldwulf Beowulf Cuthbert +ve (+ 2 grades) -ve (- 2 grades) National Trend ‘Average’ Student The position of the national trend line is of critical importance Subject A Subject B

5. Some Subjects are More Equal than Others…. A-Level >1 grade A*ABC A B C D E

6. Burning Question : What is my Value-Added Score ? Better Question : Is it Important ?

7. Value Added Charts Pre 16

8. Performance inline with expectation VA Score Performance below expectation Problem with Teaching & Learning ? Performance above expectation Good Practice to Share ?

9. Which Subjects Cause Most Concern ? Danger of Relying on Raw Residuals Without Confidence Limits

10. Which subjects now cause most concern ?

11. Business Studies

13. Religious Studies

14. Value Added Charts Post 16

15. SPC Chart 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year Performance inline with expectation VA Score Performance below expectation Problem with Teaching & Learning ? Performance above expectation Good Practice to Share ?

16. Subject Summary - 3 Year Average Subject Summary - Current Year

17. A2-English Literature Statistical Process Control (SPC) Chart 200820092010 Year

18. Student Level Residuals (SLR) Report Scatter Plot A2 – English Literature General Underachievement ?

19. Student Level Residuals (SLR) Report Scatter Plot A2 – English Literature Too many U’s ?

20. Other things to look for… Why did these students do so badly ? Why did this student do so well ? How did they do in their other subjects ?

21. Summary of Process Examine Subject Summary Determine ‘interesting’ (i.e. statistically significant) subjects Look at 3 year average as well as single year if available Look at trends in ‘Interesting Subjects’ Examine student data –Scatter graphs Identify students over / under achieving (student list or Paris) Any known issues ? Don’t forget to look at over achieving subjects as well as under achieving Phone / Email CEM when you need help understanding / interpreting the data / statistics !

22. Baseline Choice

23. Do students with the same GCSE score from feeder schools with differing value-added have the same ability ? How can you tell if a student has underachieved at GCSE and thus can you maximise their potential ? Has a student got very good GCSE scores through the school effort rather than their ability alone ? Does school GCSE Value-Added limit the ability to add value at KS5 ? Can you add value at every Key Stage ? How can you check for this ? GCSE or Baseline Test ?

24. The Effect of Prior Value Added Beyond Expectation +ve Value-Added In line with Expectation 0 Value-Added Below Expectation -ve Value-Added Average GCSE = 6 Do these 3 students all have the same ability ?

25. Same School - Spot the Difference ? GCSE as Baseline Test as Baseline

26. National or School Type Specific ?

27. Comparison to all schools Comparison to Independent Schools Only

28. Comparison to all schools Comparison to FE Colleges Only

29. Questions: → How does the unit of comparison used affect the Value-Added data and what implications does this have on your understanding of performance ? → Does this have implications for Self Evaluation ?

30. Thank You Robert Clark – robert.clark@cem.dur.ac.uk

31. Definitions: Residual – difference between the points the student attains and points attained on average by students from the CEM cohort with a similar ability Standardised Residual – the residual adjusted to remove differences between qualification points scales and for statistical purposes Average Standardised Residual – this is the ‘Value Added Score’ for any group of results Subject VA – average of standardised residuals for all students’ results in the particular subject School VA – average of standardised residuals for all students’ results in all subjects for a school / college Confidence Limit – area of statistical uncertainity within which any variation from 0 is deemed ‘acceptable’ and outside of which could be deemed ‘important’