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Using CEM Data in Practice: Feedback from CEM Secondary Assessments Glasgow Conference 13 th Feb 2013 Peter Hendry: CEM Consultant

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Presentation on theme: "Using CEM Data in Practice: Feedback from CEM Secondary Assessments Glasgow Conference 13 th Feb 2013 Peter Hendry: CEM Consultant"— Presentation transcript:

1 Using CEM Data in Practice: Feedback from CEM Secondary Assessments Glasgow Conference 13 th Feb 2013 Peter Hendry: CEM Consultant Peter.Hendry@cem.dur.ac.uk Secondary@cem.dur.ac.uk

2 Assessment for Excellence: 2 systems S1/S2 Baseline Assessment (MidYIS): A Test of Developed Ability at start of S1 or S2 4 sections: Vocabulary, Maths, Non-Verbal and Skills (Proof Reading, and Perceptual speed and accuracy Computer adaptive* or paper-based Any time Term 1 + catch ups Value Added measures to SOSCA and to Scottish Qualifications S2 Curriculum-based Assessments (SOSCA): A curriculum assessment of knowledge, skills and understanding at end of S2 Assesses what has been taught in the classroom Covers, Maths, Science, Reading (English) Computer adaptive* Four week assessment window mid April to mid May + catch ups Value Added measures from PIPs, InCAS and MidYIS and to Scottish Qualifications

3 School and students test performances are compared to a nationally representative sample Assessment data from the tests provides school and pupil data to inform teaching and learning Predictive data indicates future potential performance to SQ, and will to National 4 and 5, to inform target setting and subsequent monitoring Value-added data provides measures of relative performance at SQ (and will for National 4 and 5) and SOSCA from earlier baselines to inform self-evaluation AfE: key elements

4 AfE Feedback: MidYIS and SOSCA Assessment Feedback: Standardised score system: 50-150, mean 100, SD 15 School data including component averages and band profiles (historical and current) Pupil data in the form of spreadsheets and Individual Pupil Records (IPRs)

5 AfE Feedback: MidYIS and SOSCA Predictions Feedback: Currently to S2 SOSCA from S1/S2 baseline (MidYIS) and to SQ from MidYIS and SOSCA Value-Added Feedback: To SQ from curriculum baseline (SOSCA), and from S1/S2 baseline (MidYIS) To S2 curriculum assessment (SOSCA) from P7 baseline (PIPS or InCAS) and/or S1/S2 baseline (MidYIS)

6 www.cemcentre.org

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9 Data for your school. Detailed Information about the assessment. Well worth a look.

10 Bands, percentiles, standardised scores… Standardised scores D C B A 105203014090958070996050 Percentiles: 25% 98 Mean 100, Standard Deviation of 15

11 SCHOOL A: S1 baseline data

12 Intake profiles: overall and test component bands A school with a completely average intake would have 25% of pupils within each band.

13 SCHOOL A: S1 Baseline

14 SCHOOL A

15 SCHOOL A: S2 curriculum (SOSCA) data

16 School no.1 School no.2

17 STANINES

18 S1 baseline IPR

19 S2 curriculum (SOSCA) IPR

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21 Currently available to Standard Grade from AfE baselines In the future to National 4 & 5 Qualifications from AfE baselines Also to AfE S2 curriculum (SOSCA) from S1 and/or S2 baseline (MidYIS) Includes Chances Graphs Predictions Feedback

22 BASELINE SCORE GRADE *********************** ******************************* ******************************************* ************************************* ************************************** ******************************** ***************************** ***************** Trend line (regression line) 3 2 1 4 How is a prediction generated? 50% on or above the trend line 50% on or below the trend line PREDICTION (expected grade)

23 Data for 2012 examinations Grade

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25 Predictions: Chances Graphs 50% chance of a grade 2 – the most likely single grade. 50% chance of a different grade Chances Graphs based on Pupils SOSCA Test Score Point Prediction =1.8 Grade Prediction = 2

26 Not a label for life...just another piece of information The Chances graphs show that, from almost any baseline score, students come up with almost any grade - - -there are just different probabilities for each grade depending on the baseline score. In working with students these graphs are more useful than a single predicted or target grade Chances graphs show what can be achieved: – By students of similar ability – By students with lower baseline scores

27 Latest information as at 13 Feb 2102 Replacing SG with Nat 4 & 5 predictions: CEM statisticians have put together a proposal. This has been looked at by colleagues in Scottish Authorities. The CEM Technical team have now published the new predictive data. This data is now available on the CEM secondary+ website alongside the existing SG predictive data

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29 New slide!!

30 . 0246802468 -ve VA +ve VA Trend Line/Regression Line Raw Residual Measuring Value-Added – Terminology Exam grade BASELINE SCORE

31 SCHOOL A: S2 curriculum (SOSCA) data

32 SCHOOL C: AfE data

33 Standardised Residual Bar Chart 99.7% confidence limit 95% confidence limit ANY VALUE IN THE INNER SHADED AREA SHOWS THE EXPECTED RESULTS i.e. AVERAGE VALUE ADDED SCHOOL C: AfE data

34 SCHOOL C: SQ data


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