# Predicting Future Attainment: Is GCSE Always the Answer ? Dr Robert Clark ALIS Project Manager.

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Predicting Future Attainment: Is GCSE Always the Answer ? Dr Robert Clark ALIS Project Manager

Making Predictions

. 0246802468 Subject X How CEM Predictions are made… A* / A C Regression Line – specific to each subject or Trend Line or Line of Best Fit

Some Subjects are More Equal than Others…. E D C B A C Grade BAA* Average GCSE Physics Maths Psychology Sociology Latin Photography English Lit >1 grade Using a trend line specific to each subject / qualification is of critical importance

Subject X However…. Do we really know this ? GCSE or … ? ?

Measuring Ability

Choice of Baseline Average GCSE Score CABT (Computer Adaptive Baseline Test) Why 2 Baselines ? Measuring Ability

Why 2 Baselines ? Average GCSE correlates very well to A-level / IB etc, but by itself is not sufficient…. What is a GCSE ? Students without GCSE ? Years out between GCSE & A-level ? Reliability of GCSE ? Prior Value-Added ?

The Effect of Prior Value Added Beyond Expectation +ve Value-Added In line with Expectation 0 Value-Added Below Expectation -ve Value-Added Average GCSE = 6 Do these 3 students all have the same ability ?

Do students with the same GCSE score from feeder schools with differing value-added have the same ability ? How can you tell if a student has underachieved at GCSE and thus can you maximise their potential ? Has a student got v.good GCSE scores through the school effort rather than their ability alone ? How will this affect expectation of attainment in the Sixth Form ? Can you add value at every Key Stage ? Baseline testing provides a measure of ability that (to a large extent) is independent of the effect of prior treatment. Appropriate Baseline

Computer Adaptive Baseline Test (CABT) Test performed online – results automatically transmitted to CEM. Minimal installation / setup required - if any. Adaptive – difficulty of questions changes in relation to ability of student. Efficient – no time wasted answering questions that are far too easy or difficult. Wider range of ability Less stressful on students – more enjoyable experience than paper test. Less demanding invigilation. Test designed to be completed in 1 hour or less. No materials to courier In 2010 / 2011 over 68,000 students sat this test in Alis To try it out… www.intuproject.org/demos

X

Baseline & Predictive Feedback

Intake Profiles

IPR... Full Alis 2009 Demo School (999) Banana, Brian ? Studying : Maths Physics Chemistry Biology

Prediction Reports Probability of achieving each grade Expected Grade Predictions Based on GCSE Predictions Based on Baseline Test

Which predicted grades are the most appropriate for this student ?

Predictions Based on GCSE (7.0) B C B Predictions Based on Test (106) C B D B C What is this Students ability ? What Grades should we expect her to get ? If she gets Cs instead of Bs, is this a problem ?

Predictive Feedback Real Life Examples

Student 1

Student 2

Student 2 - IPR

Student 3

Student 3 - IPR

Impact of Baseline Choice on VA Scores

Same School - Spot the Difference ? GCSE as Baseline Test as Baseline

GCSE as Baseline Test as Baseline

A2 Biology GCSE as Baseline Test as Baseline

A2 Biology GCSE as Baseline Test as Baseline Student A Student B

A2 Biology Student A BaselineGradePointsPredicted Points VA (Residual) GCSEA120122.4-2.4 TestA12090.629.4 Student B BaselineGradePointsPredicted Points VA (Residual) GCSEA*140128.111.9 TestA*140100.139.9 How well did these students perform ?

Dr Robert Clark Alis Project Manager robert.clark@cem.dur.ac.uk 0191 33 44 193

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