1. The end of the post-Cold War liberal consensus Conflict, governance, and poverty

2. I. The liberal consensus II. Trends in conflict and governance III. The consensus in crisis? IV. Beyond the consensus

3. 1990 – 2010 post-Cold War liberal consensus

4. Stability Resources Time

5. 1990 – 2010 post-Cold War liberal consensus Personnel contributions to UN peacekeeping, 1990-2013 UNIFORMED PERSONNEL CONTRIBUTIONS

6. 1990 – 2010 post-Cold War liberal consensus Country Programmable Aid to fragile states 2000 – 2011 CPA in millions of USD

7. 1990 – 2010 post-Cold War liberal consensus Fastest 20 reformers’ progress in institutional transformation Source: Pritchett and de Weijer 2010

8. 1990 – 2010 post-Cold War liberal consensus Theory of change: fragility to functioning state,15-30 years

9. Trends in conflict and governance

10. Trends in conflict and governance Global trends in armed conflict, 1946 - 2013 Source: CSP 2014

11. Trends in conflict and governance Global trends in governance, 1946-2013 Source: CSP 2014

12. Residual conflict: The human security challenge I.Largest driver of poverty II.Globally networked III.Increasingly criminalised IV.Hard to escape V.Hard to predict Trends in conflict and governance

13. Source: WDR 2011 For every 3 years a country is affected by major violence, poverty reduction lags behind by 2.7%. Trends in conflict and governance Residual Conflict: Largest driver of poverty Poverty headcount (% of population living below $ 1.25 a day) Countries affected by major violence Countries affected by minor violence Countries with negligible or no violence

14. Trends in conflict and governance Residual Conflict: Largest driver of poverty Until the early 1990’s, per capita incomes and growth in Burkina Faso and Burundi were similar. Following massive violence in Burundi, their growth paths diverged. Burundi has lost nearly two decades of income growth, with incomes set back to the 1970’s level. Source: WDR 2011

15. Trends in conflict and governance Residual Conflict: Largest driver of poverty Source: The Brookings Institution

16. Trends in conflict and governance Residual Conflict: Globally networked

19. Sources: http://unama.unmissions.org/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=K0B5RL2XYcU%3D; http://icasualties.org/oef/ ; http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/programs/foreign%20policy/afghanistan%20index/index20130827.pdf;

20. Trends in conflict and governance Residual Conflict: Globally networked Sources: Justice in Mexico; UNAMA; The Brookings Institution

21. Polity and the Onset of Instability, 1955-2006 Trends in conflict and governance Residual conflict: hard to escape Source: CSP 2014 Polity and the Onset of Instability, 1955-2006

22. Trends in conflict and governance Residual conflict: hard to predict Source: CSP 2014 Annual deaths from political violence, 1946 – 2013

23. The consensus in crisis?

24. The consensus in crisis? Global trends in armed conflict, 1946 – 2014 Source: CSP 2014 * * 2014 Estimates

25. The consensus in crisis? Global trends in governance, 1946-2014 Source: CSP 2014 * 2014 Estimates * *

26. South Sudan Libya The consensus in crisis? Afghanistan Iraq

27. From systems failure to a new dictum? Beyond the consensus

28. (F)utility of force Beyond the consensus The last combat brigade leaves Iraq, 2010

29. Retreat from universal norms Beyond the consensus

30. Return of illiberalism –Egypt –Thailand Beyond the consensus

31. Inclusion –Philippines v. Bosnia –Kenya v. South Sudan “Good Enough” states –Rwanda –Fiji Containment What can be salvaged?