1. Today’s lecture Waves Can political regimes be imposed by force of arms? A typology of external influences Globalization, soft power, and democracy A few questions for section

2. Encore – Trend in Polity IV scores

3. The Falklands combatants

4. U.S. military occupations, 20 th century Austria Cuba Dominican Republic Germany Haiti South Korea Japan Micronesia Nicaragua Palau (island) Panama Philippines South Vietnam

5. Levitsky and Way revised L & W –Leverage –Linkage Revised –Pressure –Armed force –Purposive inreach by West –Purposive outreach by local democrats –Existential involvement

6. Components of Kearney/Foreign Policy globalization index Economic integration –Trade, FDI, portfolio capital flows, investment income Personal contacts –Travel & tourism, telephone traffic, remittances & transfers Technological connectivity –Internet users, hosts, secure servers Political engagement –Memberships in international organizations, contributions to UN peacekeeping, ratification of selected treaties, governmental transfer payments

7. Most globalized countries, 2004 Singapore Switzerland United States Ireland Denmark Canada Netherlands Australia Austria Sweden

8. Least globalized countries, 2004 Iran India Indonesia Venezuela Bangladesh Turkey Pakistan Egypt Colombia Kenya

9. Most globalized – Polity scores Singapore Switzerland United States Ireland Denmark Canada Netherlands Australia Austria Sweden -2 10

10. Least globalized – Polity scores Iran India Indonesia Venezuela Bangladesh Turkey Pakistan Egypt Colombia Kenya -6 9 8 6 6 7 -5 -6 7 8

11. Globalization and Polity scores, 2004

12. Some outliers

13. Effects on Polity scores of components of globalization, 2004 Component Effect of 10- point shift in index Effect of 50- point shift in index Economic integration N.S. Personal contacts -0.8-4.0 Technological connectivity 1.99.5 Political engagement 1.15.4

14. Some questions for sections How important is the international factor, relative to other drivers of regime change? Purposive vs. existential influence Are there natural limits to internationally-led democratization? What about China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan? Any lessons from Iraq war? From Hugo Chavez (Venezuela)? Democratization or U.S./Western domination?