1. Once and Future Redshift Surveys UK National Astronomy Meeting 8 April 2005 Matthew Colless Anglo-Australian Observatory

2. Large-Scale Structure in Different Model Universes The large-scale structure of the galaxy distribution, on scales from millions to billions of light-years, depends on… –the amounts of the various constituents of the universe (ordinary matter, dark matter, dark energy etc.) –the recipe for how galaxies are formed (when, where, and with what bias relative to the dark matter) 100 million light- years

3. The universe in a computer The million brightest galaxies on the sky

4. The Expansion of the Universe In 1929, Edwin Hubble found that… –all distant galaxies are moving away from our Milky Way galaxy; –the further away they are, the faster they are receding from us. Hubble correctly interpreted this as the isotropic expansion of the universe. E.H. Hubble’s Law: at low redshift, the recession velocity of a galaxy is proportional to its distance. Measuring redshifts (recession velocities) gives distances.

5. A redshift survey of a strip of sky is a slice through the 3-D galaxy distribution You are here

6. Las Campanas Redshift Survey ~25000 z’s CfA Survey ~15000 z’s State of the Art in the mid- 1990’s

7. Comparison of Redshift Surveys 2dFGR S SDS S

8. The 2-degree Field spectrograph AAO technology combining robotics and optical fibres Obtains spectra for 400 galaxies at once 2dF enabled a huge redshift survey

9. The 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey NGP strip SGP strip ~2000 deg 2 Random fields ~250,000 galaxies

10. NGP R.A. strip SGP R.A. strip z  0.3 You are here

11. The 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey map of 221,000 galaxies

12. Observed  CDM bias #1 SCDM bias #1 SCDM bias #2  CDM bias #2 Cosmology by eye!

13. Cole et al. 2005, astro- ph/0501174 The Galaxy Power Spectrum The final galaxy redshift- space power spectrum from full 2dFGRS The acoustic oscillations (“baryon wiggles”) are detected at the 4  significance level

14. Total matter, dark matter and baryon densities Total matter and Hubble constant:  m h = 0.168±0.016 Baryonic matter fraction:  b /  m = 0.185±0.046 Direct from 2dFGRS alone 2dFGRS and WMAP combined Total matter density:  m = 0.231  0.021 Cold dark matter density:  CDM = 0.189  0.020 Baryonic matter density:  b = 0.042  0.002

15. Constraints on the neutrino mass  =0.05  =0.01  =0 Elgaroy et al., 2002, PRL, 89, 061301 P(k) gives an upper limit on the total mass of all species 2dFGRS:  /  m < 0.13  m,tot < 1.8 eV (95% confidence) Best previou s bound  /  m < 0.13 +WMAP:  /  m < 0.05  m,tot < 0.7 eV (95% confidence)

16. Cosmology and LSS results from the 2dFGRS The large-scale structure of the galaxy distribution is precisely determined on size scales from about 1 million light years to about 1 billion light-years The properties of the galaxy distribution confirm that the large-scale structure grows by gravitational instability…  quantum(?) fluctuations emerging from the Big Bang are amplified by gravity to become galaxies, clusters and superclusters The total density of all matter in the universe is  M = 0.23  0.02  there is only 23% of the matter needed to make the universe flat The total density in ordinary matter is  B = 0.042  0.002  baryons are 18% and CDM 82% of the matter in the universe Neutrinos make up less than 5% of all the matter in the universe  the total mass of the 3 neutrino species is less than 0.7 eV

17. 19% 77% SNe CM B

18. SNe Hubble Relation Measure the brightnesses (distances) for many SNe at different redshifts to obtain the Hubble relation Look for deviations from a simple straight line  out to nearly z~1 the expansion is seen to be accelerating Redshift Relative Brightness  Distance

19. Hubble Relation for High- Redshift Supernovae However, using SNe at higher z, we see at first the expansion of the universe accelerating, then at larger distances the expansion decelerating

20. 200 3 WMA P

21. The CMB power spectrum from WMAP

22. Standard Model Cosmic Microwave Background + Large-Scale Structure + Distant Supernovae + HST Key Project  the geometry of the universe is flat  there is less than the critical density of matter  the expansion of the universe is accelerating  the overall scale (size/age) of the universe

23. 2dFGRS The geometry of the universe is flat (CMB) Matter makes up 23% of the energy density in the universe (2dFGRS) The expansion of the universe is accelerating (SNe) Dark energy makes up 77% of the energy density in the universe (any two of the above) The State of the Universe

24. ? ? ? The Composition of the Universe  tot = 1.02  0.02   = 0.77  0.04  DM = 0.19  0.02  B = 0.04  0.002  < 0.01

25. The Cosmic Timeline Hubble constant: H 0 = 71  4 km/s/Mpc (HST KP H 0 = 72  7 km/s/Mpc) CMB last scattering surface: t CMB = 379  8 kyr Epoch of Re-ionization: t EoR = 100 - 400 Myr Age of the universe today: t 0 = 13.7  0.2 Gyr

26. Dark Matter and Dark Energy Although we now know the amounts of all the major constituents of the universe we still have two major gaps in our knowledge… What is the dark matter? What is the dark energy?

27. What more can z-surveys say about dark matter? Additional information comes from measuring the distances as well as the redshifts to obtain both the galaxy density and velocity distributions Since galaxy velocities are directly produced by gravity from the matter distribution, this jointly constrains both luminous and dark matter

28. The 6dF Galaxy Survey The 6dFGS is now mapping the mass & motions in the very local (z<0.1) universe Currently 2/3 of southern sky mapped (DR2 next week); complete mid-2005 The survey aims to measure redshifts for a NIR-selected (2MASS) sample of 150,000 galaxies, plus velocities for 15,000 galaxies (10x previous surveys) The AAO’s UK Schmidt Telescop e The 6dF fibre spectrogr aph

29. The 6dFGS map of the local universe

30. Predicted 6dFGS galaxy power spectrum Effective volume shot noise/mode Predict ed errors Non- linear regime

31. Predicted 6dFGS velocity power spectrum Predict ed errors Larger errors reflect smaller size of survey and 1D peculiar velocities

32. For cosmological models specified by: –the power spectrum amplitude and shape (A g,  ) –the redshift-space distortion (  ) –the galaxy-mass correlation (r g ) … the errors from the combined redshift and velocity surveys are 1-3% in all four parameters … the velocity survey much improves the joint constraint on  and r g, which are now only relatively weakly correlated z-only z+v 1  contours on pairs of parameters Constraints from joint redshift- velocity survey Burkey & Taylor (2004)

33. What can z-surveys say about dark energy? Is dark energy Einstein’s cosmological constant, or new physics? The nature of the dark energy affects the geometry of the universe, which can be measured by comparing the structure in the galaxy distribution (specifically, the apparent scale of the acoustic oscillations) at different times. The geometry of the universe is measured at early times by the CMB, and at late times by the 2dFGRS. Redshift surveys of ~10 6 galaxies at intermediate redshifts (say, z~1 and z~3) could map the geometry over the full span of cosmic time and see the transition from a dark matter dominated universe to a dark energy dominated universe.

34. The Dark Energy Equation of State The equation of state for dark energy is the ratio of pressure to density as a (potentially evolving) function of redshift, w(z) For cosmological constant , w  -1 and does not change with z For new physics, this is not the case: w(z) = w 0 + w 1 z +… Determining w(z), esp. if w 0  -1 and w 1  0, would be a major step towards understanding the nature of the dark energy Measuring the geometry of the universe may therefore provide a window on new physics (quantum gravity? string theory?)

35. w(z) requires high- precision versions of the classical cosmological tests, as likely effects on geometry are small Use the ‘standard rod’ provided by scale of acoustic oscillations in the galaxy power spectrum (‘Doppler peaks’ in CMB) Equation of State from Acoustic Oscillations

36. Current constraints on the EoS Constraints from z-surveys, cluster evolution, BBNS, SNe & CMB The 95% confidence interval is approximately - 1.5<w<-0.8  (w=-1) is consistent with all data; Big Rip (w<- 1) is possible ΩmΩm ΩmΩm 2dFGRS Allen et al., 2004, MNRAS, 353, 457

37. Measure acoustic oscillations with redshift surveys of large-scale structure at high redshift: –z~1: 900,000 gals, 1000 deg 2 –z~3: 600,000 gals, 150 deg 2 For interesting cases with w 1  0, z- surveys give similar constraints to other methods (e.g. SNe) Combining methods (LSS, CMB, SNe) increases the precision in measuring both w 0 and w 1 Redshift survey method has the advantage that it should be less subject to systematic errors Redshift Surveys & Dark Energy

38. WFMOS on Gemini/Subaru WFMOS is ideal for massive surveys of high- redshift galaxies: –8-metre telescope –4500 optical fibres –1.5 degree field of view

39. Once and Future Redshift Surveys Wide-field spectroscopy has been, and will continue to be, a very powerful tool for studying large-scale structure and cosmology Combined with CMB, SNe and other observations, the 2dFGRS and SDSS provide a precise picture of the low-redshift universe The combined 6dF redshift-velocity survey will provide additional constraints on the relation between luminous and dark matter Future massive redshift surveys at high redshift with AAOmega, FMOS and WFMOS can trace the evolution of galaxies and large-scale structure, and reveal the nature of the dark energy